The interesting part is that these are long term decisions based on short term realities.
in no particular order:
The subsidy problem isn’t going end once you’re in the SEC. It won’t take long for everyone to realize the top 8 are subsidizing the bottom 8. Then what?
NIL going to change a lot of economics. As less money goes through the athletic department, some interesting issues will pop up. There will always be money for football, but Tom Izzo just said his athletic director asked him to find local non-con games they could bus to in order to save some jack. Is flying the tennis team to Gainesville or baseball to South Carolina going to be affordable for all schools? And we’re coming out of a period of historically low oil prices.
High school football is dying. West coast, Midwest and east coast participation is shrinking. Participation rate is even down in Texas. If you aren’t playing in talent fertile grounds, your coaches aren’t watching meaningful high school games in person on Friday night. The biggest mistake Nebraska and Colorado made was leaving the fertile grounds of Texas. And they’re never going to recover. P12 is dead I. The water and they don’t even know it yet. B1G is also facing this problem to a lesser degree.
Remaining B12 definitely going to take a step back but one thing they’ll have is proximity to good high school talent. 4 schools in Texas, OSU, Cincy and UCF will be able to recruit and BYU due to its unique mission will find talent. WVU is really the only one who is just clearly screwed. If new B12 is smart, they try to balance out divisions among along the lines of 2 TX schools + Cincy and then other 2 TX schools + UCF. I always felt the real problem with the original B12 was that the north schools were at a clear recruiting disadvantage. Particularly in those weird years where the last 3 games of the season were just round robin among the 4 TX schools.