phdhorn

Oh, sure, but as usual the abused becomes the abuser. Kentucky hillbilly shit and all, but I still felt sorry for her. I guess her scorecard is neutral, as if not for her, her two kids would probably be nurses somewhere in SoCal. Wait a minute... maybe that wouldn't have been so bad compared to now. I don't think Naomi was that talented, but she was super smart business wise and a dogged agent/manager. She saw that her daughter was an immense talent (which she is) and from what I understand, went along on the ride to push the introverted Wynona to find her brilliance - if not for Naomi, Wynona almost certainly would never have refined herself and seen a worldwide stage. She also kept her on the up and up. The Judds weren't high on my list although they had some catchy songs. But Wynona is deservedly a superstar (even if she looks like a linebacker) - amazing voice and style. As for Ashley - what a freakin' mess. But that's another story. Anyway, always sad to see that someone's life was a steaming mess, and that they were in that spiral that runs over generations.

Texas is where good high school players go to die in suckage/horribad development, or not so good high school players go to be overrated. That's been the situation since halfway into GWB's administration. Kids are now in middle school who were born the last time we had all around solid coaches and talent. But hey, there's always next year... Have a nice day!🙂

Maybe it's all just a strange dream you had last night.

Naomi Judd was of course beautiful but yes she had issues. She had a rough childhood and was abused. She also went through abuse with her husband, had to raise 2 kids... and finally got a contract because she moved to L.A. with her girls to get them in nursing... and one of Wynona's patients had a father in the record industry. She finally got him to listen and that was that. But I think her early abuse (as a toddler) messed her up beyond her abilty to clear it. Add to that her constant tensions with her daughters, and you have the portrait of someone who after the lights went off was hugely troubled (she freely has admitted all of this)... weeks without going outside, dirty, unkempt, barely able to get up and eat just to fend off starvation. She struggled for decades with just not trying to kill herself, day by day. We really don't know the depth of her illness. So it's unsurprising, but at least they had the huge success for 15 years. I can't imagine having to live with those demons day after day for a lifetime. RIP, finally.

Meh. Aztecs and other pre-Columbian civilizations played Ulama (world's oldest game probably). Look it up. While it's a myth that teams played with skulls used as a "ball", they often decorated their courts with dozens of skulls. And often the team that won was decapitated - pre-Columbian tribes considered it an honor to die as the game was far more symbolic than just a game. Never mind the human sacrifices surrounding the games. And every major Mesoamerican town/city had a ball court for Ulama. But maybe the most impressive thing surrounding these sports are the tzompantli ). These had a base with upright wood posts. Tens of thousands of human skulls were displayed on these "racks"; one Conquistador reported as many as 136,000, but even if this is doubted, scientists found one with a definite head count (see what I did there? yuk yuk yuk) of over 60,000. Almost all of these skulls were human sacrifice; others were decapitated "winners" of the ball games displayed as sort of the statue outside the stadium thing... a tribute of sorts. Among the most brutal worlds I know of is pre-Columbian America. Death was not only commonplace, but sought after in many activities. A pile of a measly 150 skulls is more of an afterthought than anything significant in that world.

Nope, 2nd to that. Nasdaq worst since 2008 though. Sorry my bad. So, hey, it's all good today!

I can't say I did Nazi that coming.

Follow-up to my rosy post a few up: - Worst single month since 2008. You remember 2008, right? I thought you did. - Market is pushing hard for that coveted 4-digit plunge as I write this. Wait for it... wait for it... man, this is exciting!!! Got dammit, some last-second profit taking pushed the sucker back under 1K! It quickly shit below the magic line, but popped back up. MASSIVE rally only took it to -937.87. How anticlimactic... Nevertheless, the wealth lost today and especially this month can only be described as such:

Worst April of the millennium!

More bad numbers this a.m. - PCEX up 5.3% (a .1 better than March, but still bad) - PCEX w/energy and food 6.6% (fastest since 1/82); up .9% from Feb (which was "only" up .5% from Jan) - Real Disposable Income down .4% March (was up .1% in Feb.) The disposable is the biggest item here - this absolutely affects consumer spending. See what happens next month or so. I think the Fed was ready for that 50bps hike - before the -1.4 knocked them in the teeth. So now they don't know what the hell to do - either way (a good jump or not much/nothing) is gonna hurt. Kinda like being in Willie Wonka's Shrinking Room:

Good news: Apple had a good day, posted earnings above expectations, despite supplies/etc. Bad news: Amazon had its first quarterly loss since 2015. A good chunk of Amazon's loss is due to investment in Rivian and was expected. But, this is indirectly due to inflationary causes, as Rivian had to drastically reduce its production forecast by half, due to increased prices of goods, due to supply chain issues. Amazon's investment went pop. So not unrelated to monetary events. Spending will determine whether recession occurs next July (when Q2 comes out) or not.

One ray of hope is that there are some missing ingredients in this preliminary report, and likely it'll be revised up in the "final" Q1 next month, but it's still not good. - Consumer spending held the line (barely), which probably propped this up a lot more from "disaster" numbers. - Business investment also managed to eke up, though a lot less than in previous quarters - watch this for a negative number next quarter. - The most alarming stat is trade imbalance - exports rose only modestly while imports shot up. This is stagflation fuel and likely the biggest reason for this rept. - The Fed has to walk a tightrope with the 50bps on taming inflation vs. causing recession. Almost a lose-lose. Right at this juncture, the prognosis is for another slightly neg. quarter coming, but not so much that we're in full-blown recession. However if prices for goods are such that demand falls, and suppliers can't get U.S. products out, the lack of exports will drag this down to 2009 levels. It'll get worse if U.S. manufacturing is driven down by: 1) shipping problems; 2) lack of workers; 3) lack of shippers, and 4) demand falloff as goods prices spiral up. Not a good way to be outfitted for crusing chicks (or economic prosperity). Hopefully the money is on mild pause ("technical" recession) but not a cliff-dive. However, stick a needle in a wild horse's ass, and you never know which way he'll go...

Eventually the huge demand for stuff that's not available (or won't arrive for 32 years after ordering) will keep triggering higher and higher prices for that good, which in turn will cause spending to dwindle, which will cause output to drop as well. Time and tested formula for recession. The typical Chinese psychotic reaction in Shanghai to the outbreak, essentially locking workers in their homes, has put a knife into any hopes of even semi-quick recovery. It's caused enormous supply shortages in good (see Apple Computer) and MASSIVE logjams in shipping in Shanghai (essentially the country's most important port by a few galaxies). Not only are workers not working, they're not shipping, and what is available for shipping is backlogged and getting worse. I've been expecting something shipped from China, normally a 2 week turnaround, going on 6 and no hope in sight (the message I get that people are "working hard with their suppliers" is good for the comic value alone, if not for being anywhere close to the truth. While it's still not inevitable that recession is here, it's almost inevitable that recession is here.

Yup, here it comes, just like the rats following the Pied Piper - spending slows, demand goes down, inventories go down.. and voila! You got your recession. Still not too late, but nah, it probably is. The only question is one I ask South Austin's mom nightly - how deep?

Travel insurance: 1) Yes there are some cards out there (usually fairly exclusive ones) that offer trip insurance, and in most cases, especially short or domestic trips, are more than adequate. But even the best don't cover some things that might come in handy for longer/more expensive/foreign trips. I.e. one thing that usually isn't are "sports activities" which can mean you're hiking or biking or doing something athletic and you hurt yourself. Most CC's won't cover that, or in low amounts. Another is "Cancel for any reason", and still others are very sketchy for medical treatment overseas (either not a lot of $ coverage or only in certain facilities). Often there are riders for such things as increased baggage coverage. Also the majority of cc's are secondary insurance - that is you have to run through your own insurance first, and then they'll pay what your primary doesn't (or pay some part of). The only other caveat is that you have to charge all expenses relating to insurance on that card, else they won't pay. 2) Most trip insurance is very, very easy to purchase and relatively cheap (about $50 per $1,000 trip value, on average, but they can vary). And many insurance policies require extra $ for "Cancel for any reason". But it's still a decent deal and most of them pay very well. Of course with any insurance you have to keep receipts and NOTE WHAT HAPPENED AS SOON AS IT HAPPENS, including materials lost/medical impairment, etc. Keep receipts. Did I say to keep receipts? But other than that, it's pretty good stuff for the $. The Chase elite cards (the Sapphires), AMEX and United Explorer cards are pretty salty for the coverage, so they might do. However not everyone can qualify for them. Most CC's do a good job on rental cars, but from there CC's with those exceptions never really approach the breadth and amounts of trip insurance coverage. If you haven't looked at squaremouth.com for travel insurance, you're doing it wrong. Excellent site for looking at and comparing trip insurance. I swear by it. When you compare you'll find that many of them are very similar with somewhat widely-ranging prices. I'm doing a big trip with the family this late summer - 6 countries over 2 weeks - and I went with Tin Leg. There are tons of good ones though - Seven Corners, Allianz, AXA, HTH, JHancock, Trawick, etc. Most of these are well-established for decades - not scams. Anyway, if you have one of those 3-4 credit cards, and you like the degree and amounts of coverage, they'll work great if you have them and want to spend the entire trip on those cards. But most CC's don't come anywhere near travel insurance, especially for overseas trips, and the more exotic, the wider the difference.

Got damn, son. There is a lot of wisdom in this. Bravo! The only thing(s) I would add are in ref. to your: Paragraph 1: the majority of folks on Twitter (up to 90% depending on how you interpret polls) post politics extremely rarely, or not at all. The huge bulk of Twitter is pedantic shit from everyday schmucks. Paragraph 3: All more than true (and refreshing here), and I think that one place Musk is gonna take a buzz saw to is the "Community Standards" or some such bullshit "policy" section. Those things are the great Fake Wall disguised as "fairness." Granted, a private concern can do what it sees fit (within FCC regs) but "violating community standards" is often a cowardly, shit-brained cover for "I don't like you or your kind." Gutless bullshit. As I posted way back up there somewhere, my dice are rolling on the fact that content moderation is a concern of Musk's, but not his primary one, and that we'll be surprised at the lack of deep chiseling he does with Twitter. He is more concerned with free flow of communication (get rid of the bots e.g.) and an arena - where any extremist side is vulnerable to axing. And I think he'll axe both if need be. Just not bury it under some unmitigated hog vomit of some ideologue's "community standards." You know, HOA type shit. Content moderation will always be needed - it's just that "moderation" is a term that's gone way the fuck off to La-La Land. But time will tell. And Musk must have some idea of how he wants Twitter to prosper; even if it fails, he wouldn't make this move without financials in mind, and certainly near or at the top. Gonna be interesting to watch if nothing else.

Tuned in here and was surprised, even for SurlyWorld. Wasn't even 'posta start raining until 9-10 a.m. Oh ye of little faith... This is gonna happen off/on through the day, into the night, and even spotty into aarly tomorrow. The end.

Pretty good 2 minutes here... Rogan shits all over Stelter, which is whatever, but the best part is the last 20 seconds where he talks about CNN hubris - spot fugging on. BTW, nothing in this clip is overtly political. Rogan talks strictly from a personality/attitude/economic perspective. You don't like Rogan? Don't click on it.

Could be. Trucking spot market, the biggest indicator of recession in the industry, took a dive in March, triggered by less consumer purchase, which in turn has finally been triggered by the increased costs of - well, everything. Some of it may be correction since truckers re-tailored their business plan for speed and used more trucks. So the dropoff in sales (therefore trucked goods) volumes has come down from abnormal amounts during the pandemic. But, March was brutal and what's concerning is that online sales, the buoy during the pandemic, have dropped sharply for 2 months in a row. See this: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/analysis-us-trucking-downturn-foreshadows-possible-economic-gloom/ar-AAWyWs2 Whether a deep recession happens will depend on abilities for consumer spending to recover. But it's troubling that finally, after several months when inflation was bad but spending remained high, that we're seeing that inevitable drop which precedes a recession. Whether this is what's going on in the spot trucking industry right now remains to be seen. But Goldman Sachs has it up now to about 40% as with the majority of forecasters. Markets today are continuing their selloffs over global slowdown worries. If recession ain't here yet, its barbarians are definitely at the gates.

LPS is a decent enough movie (B+) but it's really not necessarily a Texas movie. The story lines about emptiness, rites of passage into adulthood, and the heavy weight of nothingness and desloation could apply to almost any small town in the middle of the U.S., and even to a degree a common urban trope (even Panic in Needle Park parallels many of the hopeless directions in LPS). I don't think it's a gripping story as much as one you just kind of view as an outsider, it's hard to not just feel like an observer of "that stuff over there." LPS has two things going for it.. it does a reasonably good job of not insisting on itself purely as "Texas" (i.e. stereotyping). It barely manages to stay above water on such tropes as the old, creaky pool hall, overstuffed accents, and the like. The other thing to me is Cloris Leachman. Her character was brilliantly written as a "bird in a cage" underemoted but internally extremely pent-up Housewife in Nowhere. Often sex stories are just directionless pap, entertaining without much depth. But her character might be the only one in the move that you go beyond observing and actually feel the motivations for her seemingly flippant and reckless behavior. In almost all of her scenes there is a two-fold tension; first that you're never quite sure hubby won't be coming in (the entire subplot is rife with that kind of sub-terrestrial boiling tension, and second, that her desperate attempt to find something good in life is drawn out so beautifully that such an easy-to-stereotype thing as 'the high school kid and the MILF' comes off as completely understandable. And of course she plays it magnificently - deserved the Oscar. Beyond that, I don't really think it's a definitive statement of Texas as much as it is in the Industrial Fifties, where small towns from Minnesota to New Mexico and back were dying out with the huge, massive migration to cities from small, agriculturally-driven towns. It's just Texas' contribution to the very uniform norm of many states.

Ok. Of course GE includes pre-check, but honestly, unless you're going overseas a lot, not sure GE is worth the wait at least for now. GE is almost exclusively for coming back into the U.S. - it doesn't really do much for when you land overseas (with the notable exception of Ireland and for some reason Abu Dhabi). However, since a lot of international traffic comes back in through JFK or MIA, it's well worth it (I saved a good 90 minutes in line with it coming back into MIA), especially at peak times. Of course the best idea is if/when you travel overseas and come back throw in an extra hour or so between your next flight (i.e MIA-SAT) and you can do GE interview as part of going back through customs. Very handy.

You shouldn't have to drive to airports for pre-check (ONLY pre-check). There are offices around AUS and SAN (not sure where you live) for that. But if you're doing Global Entry too, then yeah, you almost always have to go to the airport (well at least pending e-interviews). Pre-check wait time is usually nothing, you can schedule for a day or two later. Global Entry is at least 2-3 months (but I encourage people to check daily for cancellations you can squeeze into with little notice).

You get 3 days after the schedule change. After that, tough ta-ta's. As for Denver airport, well sure, when you dedicate it to Satan, what else do you expect??

That's an accurate fix, because it doesn't cover over Bee Cave, where it rains all the time, and what we're going to get 2 inches on Monday. I'm thinking this one will definitely get most of us pretty wet.

Also I was way premature, fake news and all that. The market staged a massive last minute rally and only went down 981 points so it's a win-win for everybody.