phdhorn

After this line, severe threat will be mostly over, although rain could continue into the night here/there.

Big ass storm making a bee line for metro area. Let's see how well-built those new multimillion high rises are.

Don't want to jinx it, but so am I and so far two big storms are straddling me. However Drip/Bee Cave put into the possible (but less likely) path of the tornadic/hail storm from Wimberley.

Wimberley tornado has weakened, but keep watching for hail and strong winds into south Austin and environs.

Wimberley tornado headed for Austin but might veer and strength uncertain. Another rotation possible future warning around Hudson Bend, headed for Cedar Park. Take care/ready to cover.

Tornado warning east of Wimberly, moving towards Southpark Meadows, extreme S Austin, headed for S/E extreme metro parts, Del Valle. Confirmed tornado, no info on strength, but take cover SE parts of town/county.

You should throw out that app. Meanwhile, Jim Spencer is out by the West Travis storm, says tornadic activity is developing. Should miss me (whew!) but wlll tag Briarcliff and West Lakeway. Even if not tornado very very strong winds and hail.

Looks like a possible tornado is gonna skirt west of me moving NE thru Western Travis and Hays. No word yet on severity/whether it's a full nado.

Severe TS heading smack to Austin. Another one heading toward Lakeway and points west, a third heading SE of city into Bastrop county. Wow. Hopefully these don't explode over us.

Update: Alright, here we go. Hail in storm plus now some rotation, moving up Blanco Co. west of me. MIght be worth watching. Another ominous blob heading NE for Austin proper. If it's gonna happen, it'll be in these. Probably more to come within next hour.

Deleted my post, too early to say anything definitive. Back later.

One more thing.. just FYI here is an approximation of the cold front (as of 2:55 p.m.), which in this case, is the place where the worst storms will form with this system, so you can track it on radar. Bye (for awhile).

Good.

Kinda good news, might mean energy is shifting to north/east. But haven't seen anything official on it yet. Got damn I hate this stuff... technology just isn't good enough yet to predict pinpoints on this. Fingers crossed.

Interesting tidbit while I'm here... Little outflow boundary sweeping in, this is a rush of cooler air generated by thunderstorms behind it. Lots of times these outflows can themselves be the line to ramp up, though I don't think it's gonna happen here. Just kind of a cool pic FWIW. Back later (hope not, but we'll see).

Update: I'll be back in when/if stuff gets nasty. It's entirely true we might not get shit. Or, it's entirely true we may get slammed. One thing is for sure.. the line which will be severe really won't ramp up until it gets near us, say within 100 miles. The line out west isn't running into the blob of moisture that is the risk area. It's not uncommon that this situation is ripe to "blow up" on or near us out of nothing. Some of our worst weather has been more like that than spotting a line way out west that comes through - usually these lines die down. I don't like this scenario, and the best hope is that it forms east of us. But nothing on the radar right now means much as to the next 3-4 hours. I'd say within the next hour or two is when "it gets real" either shows up - or not - on the radar. So I'll be back if that happens. If not, meh. (But someone in the eastern half of Texas is going to get slammed today, definitely).

Like this? Oh boy!!

It can help, but not always. I.e. if a line goes through a sunny area west of us, it can keep up intensity. But clouds/rain mix the atmosphere a bit. What causes bad storms is when rapidly rising warm air cools and breaks through the warm cap, the updrafts get a lot worse and winds/rotation/hail picks up. I think any cap in the atmosphere above us right now will break. The only question is where. NWS 1) is certain conditions are right; 2) not sure when/where the storms will go severe, but they will, and 3) right now, have potential to be mesoscale (rotating, non linear cells even within a broken line) which is worse for tornadoes and hail. Most of the bets are still east of us, but again hopefully the rain/clouds help. But if the shear is too great, even that isn't gonna work for long. Should have a severe TS/tornado watch issued once the line forms for good - expect it round noon-2 p.m. I like a good drama, and while NWS is tamping down sensationalist lingo in their current forecasts, I found this one interesting from this morning: .SPECIAL SAFETY NOTICE... Given we are coming out of the cool season and have not seen severe storms of the magnitude expected since May 2021, that Spring Break has just ended for many students, and this is a Monday with all the normal chaos that brings for many, we put special attention on safety and preparedness for this event. In addition, the timing of the storms around the end of the school day and in rush hour presents problems, especially if large hail (2+ inch diameter) and tornadoes develop. In general, it is much safer to remain in a solid building with a foundation rather than being in a vehicle, mobile home, or other light structures. Once the storms develop, they should quickly move through your area, so the best bet may be to stay in place for an hour or two and not be caught out commuting. More later, if needed...

It might seem like this, but in reality Austin gets is equal share of hits/misses, at least in similar rain zones. If you stuck 100 people across the similar climate/rain belt as we have in Austin (generally a N/S swath more or less 20 miles either side of 35) and asked them to "get a feel" for how much they get/don't get rain, most of them would report the same thing more or less. Certainly in a given year a pattern might bring more rain/less rain into a limited area (say about 100X100 miles) but it seems that most people would feel like other places get more in any given year (they've done research on this). I.e. in Austin if it seems that we got 2 "hits" for every 10 "misses" that would be the same for a lot of other places. Of course we are in somewhat narrow rain zones running across the state, i.e. avg. precip is definitely greater east of Bastrop than say west of Blanco. But all in all, it's not all that different. Update: The squall line that will become severe is now forming just NE of the Big Bend area (and another possible one east of that). 3-6 p.m. is the peak expectation. More as warranted.

Even false weathermen, like me.

Squall line pretty much N/S length of the state will form after lunch and roll through. Right now there is nothing: I'll chime in as this situation develops... I think the worst weather/best chance will still be E of 35 but we'll have to wait. One good thing is that we're getting clouds/rain right now which should help mitigate the air a little and maybe cut down on chances. But, maybe not. Or maybe. Or maybe not. Or whatever, I give up.

Nah, I'm saving that for the coming civil war. Update: Back in the severe soup today, and an enhanced risk (ugh!) but at least it's not overnight:

Me likey... https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/florida-gun-manufacturer-donates-200-000-worth-of-rifles-to-ukrainian-forces Florida gun manufacturer donates $200,000 worth of rifles to Ukrainian forces by Jenny Goldsberry, Social Media Producer March 19, 2022 02:54 PM A weapons manufacturing plant in Florida is donating an abandoned order of rifles worth $200,000 to Ukraine. When Keltec, based in Cocoa, Florida, received an order for 400 9mm carbine rifles from a client in Odesa, Ukraine, the gun manufacturer got to work completing the bureaucratic process of sending the weapons. By the time those steps were cleared last month, Odesa was under siege, and the client was unreachable, prompting the store owner to send the abandoned weapons to the Ukrainian military.This is just right to get them over there so they do what they were designed to do — defend their home and state," Industrial Production Director Adrian Kellgren said Friday. The company said in a Friday Facebook post that it didn't intend to announce the donation, but the media picked up on the story via its filing to the Justice Department to be registered as foreign agents to facilitate the shipment reaching Ukraine's army. Other registrants from the filing included the Ukrainian Embassy's First Secretary Volodymyr Muzylov and real estate lawyer Lukas Jan Kaczmarek, who claimed in the document to have volunteered to assist the Ukrainian-American Bar Association since Russia invaded on Feb. 24. "On March 3, 2022, I was approached by one of the volunteers inquiring as to whether I could assist Adrian Kellgren, Director of Industrial Production at Kel-Tech CNC Industries, with an expedited export license for a batch of small arms that could no longer be delivered to its intended recipient in Odessa," Kaczmarek wrote. With Muzylov's help, Kaczmarek, who said he would refuse any monetary compensation for his assistance, got Kellgren the license in a record four days. The process is known to take several months. The guns will arrive at an unknown NATO country before arriving in Ukraine, where Ukrainian armed forces can use them as needed.

Yep, correct. Why, just last week...

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