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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. Rain is much harder than I anticipated but it's moving so fast it won't flood.
  2. The little cell passing over me right now has small hail, nothing damaging, 50 to 60 mph winds and it's moving right toward oak Hill and South austin. Don't think it'll be real bad but could knock a few things around.
  3. I'm getting nailed easily with 50 mph winds, hard rain but brief.
  4. Not sure I've ever seen this before...
  5. Tornado warning for Georgetown and north of Round Rock, potential tornado.
  6. All Austin metro about to get severe thunderstorm warning, pea-size jail and 70 mph winds in many spots. Going to be a fun 20 minutes.
  7. Pretty nasty cell near the bottom of the line going through Gillespie right now. Looks like some hail and strong winds. Just fyi, still has a lot of ground to cover before it gets here. Most of it will skirt north of metro. The northern Travis and Georgetown keep an eye out.
  8. Just wanted to duck in to say that if you're getting alerts in Spanish, you shouldn't worry unless you're Hispanic. Those storms never hit English-speaking peoples' houses. Don't get me started... Anyway, I won't be back (?).. hopefully.
  9. Most of the worst will be north of us, if just north. Gonna be a good spread of tornadoes in NE TX into SEC country tonight. Not pretty. For ATX, wouldn't surprise me if a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued, but the models have kept the Big Red Target NE of us up to now, so that's not changing. Biggest worry is straight line winds over a 5-6 mile spot somewhere, and hail in very scattered pockets. I ain't really worried about it at this point, luckiest guess is some poor spot around ATX will get some quarter sized hail and wind damage. But pinpoint. That's what I see right now. Line has formed but southern end is ebbing and flowing, north half is pretty nasty, around Waco to Metroplex... we'll see what happens as it hits warm air somewhere around us. We'll know by about 6:30 what we're in for if anything... bulk of it should hit about 7-8 in ATX. I won't be back unless bad things start to happen 'round here.
  10. Wanted to give notice of this in case you missed it. Almanza was a two-time Olympian for Mexico and leading scorer and rebounder for UT during his tenure. Quite a guy. His kids are in their 50's and his son is a pretty successful lawyer in town. My wife went to Austin High with his daughter, suffice it to say it was a long and painful decline and finally he's out of pain. Just thought some of you might want to read up on a UT basketball Legacy. He lived in the Barton hills area and his funeral was this morning. https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/mens-basketball/2023/01/30/albert-almanza-former-texas-longhorns-basketball-player-olympian-dies/69851330007/
  11. Power back on after 6 hours. Not too bad. This one's about over. It was a mothafugga, though, if you're a tree. Otherwise besides a power burp, it could've been worse. See ya around the bend.
  12. Power did the on/off/on flicker twice today but now the third time it's stayed off (20 mins. now) although it did try to go on. Probably won't post much here until it comes back on, if it ever does. Will check occasionally on the phone. Have a lovely day.
  13. Update: This last string of precip is now moving through the ATX metro area and environs. There is a bit of dry air seeping into it from the SW, so it's kind of getting chewed up. Doesn't mean there won't be an extra layer or two of ice forming, but hopefully it's being mitigated a bit - the line has narrowed W→E a good bit. Then we got a decent break (although more stuff could form up south of us, but so far no) until dinnertime or so. I'm still hoping that temps will climb into the 33+° range by "sunset" (whatever that is!). Temps are not going to go down now the next 12-24 hours - just up, so I'm squeezing hard rooting for that. Back later, I'd imagine.
  14. Pretty good explanation here. It could vary almost house to house, too. Not an easy call. I prefer no more rain period, or at least temps get warm enough to start melting the ice and making it soft. Then the rain could wash it right off.
  15. Not an easy answer, and temps are part of it, so the answer is... If the temps are at or near freezing, and the rain is heavy, and the air aloft is warm (like our situation today), it can actually bring warm air down with it and melt the ice, because both the air and rain > 32°. If you've ever poured faucet water into a cup of ice and it melts, you get the idea. However, if temps are lower and/or rain is not as heavy, it can be worse and add. If it's pouring out, it doesn't necessarily mean more ice accumulation... only so much water can layer up in a given instant, the rest will run off to the ground. But I don't think heavy rain is a good thing right now. And it won't be - until in many areas tomorrow morning, when it's been above freezing for several hours. In that case, it'll help scrub the trees. Seems like an eternity to get to about 12 hours from now, though...
  16. Update: We have one more batch of precip entering the ATX area now. This is going to last to around after lunch, then I think we'll be dry for another stretch. A bigger round of rain is coming in tonight but temps will rise. It's going to be a race <sigh>. Edit: Trying to provide some hope:
  17. What are things like in San Antonio/your area? I thought temps were > freezing pretty much south of 1604. My daughter was supposed to come home (to SAT) from Orlando today but they canceled, which surprised me.
  18. I did in about 8 places, didn't add up. Guess i picked the wrong ones.
  19. FYI, current outage map: Not sure how you get 100K out of that, but maths isn't a requirement.
  20. power just did the on/off/on flicker, this is gonna be a fun day. At least yesterday we got a notice that our power had been restored, but it never went out. Maybe I can use it as an IOU. Buckle up, gonna be a fun ride the next 24.
  21. Morning... well I'll leave out the "this is bad" talk because this is bad. Why it happened weatherwise I'll also skip over for now, but the bar ate us on this one. It's still gonna get worse in NW Texas today, but we have our own problems. So here's today weatherwise for Austin and immediate surroundings (N and W will be worse): - First the good(?) news is that this heavy band of rain is clearing the area to the NE. So at least for a few hours the ice won't get much worse. The bad news is another round should happen later today and tonight. How bad it'll be simply is how the temps fare. - Also, there is warm air slowly working its way up from the SW, and actually the heavier rain is dragging down warmer air above the cold layer. Hopefully these will cause temps to rise - but I'm not sure fast and wide enough. - Temps will rise actually into tonight for these (and other reasons), and most of us should actually be above freezing by wakeup tomorrow. But of course that means we have to get through today. It's not going to be fun. More and more stuff will break, power lost, etc. In this case, we didn't get much help to keep this from being a destructive storm. Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes... I'll be back later if weather merits it... oh yeah I've lost big parts of (for now and counting) 3 trees, all cedar. I'm gonna need a bigger chainsaw.
  22. No, as I said it's understandable. Especially families with kids and stuff, that was a terrible experience, I lived it myself, 4 days without power and a 45° house. But I guess I have enough chutzpah (arrogance) about to say what happened in '21 was otherworldly, and almost impossible over the next batch of years at least. It's always inconvenient with an icing situation again especially with kids, but keep in mind that even if this freeze lasted through Friday (it's going to be sunny, warm, in the mid to high 60s), that's only one-half of the duration of the '21 event. I realize that event has left the bad scar on people's psyches, but at some point they'll realize that's just not going to happen again. To my points and the one just before this, if I am wrong, you sonofabitches won't get here anyway. I live on a 1,100 ft. bluff west of austin, you'll never make it up here and you'll die trying in the cold. And I'll shoot ice pellets through my rifle. I'm safe. I do have one update: It looks like tomorrow will be a race against tiime and temp. The rain is definitely going to pick up in the early morning and things could get bad up until when (and IF) the temperature > freezing, which is now forecast in a good part of the region, we'll see. Without the sun, the temperature really needs to get above freezing for melting to occur; with it, it can be as cold as 26° and still melt. But we'll need the temperature up without the sun. My personal planning is not going anywhere at least through noon or 1 p.m. tomorrow, then hopefully driving on nothing but wet streets meant to late afternoonas the ice melts. 50/50 right now but I'm optimistic. Late Wednesday into thursday, I'll look at it.
  23. Understandable, but way too paranoid. We are not going to have an event like that in my, my kids', or my grandkids' lifetime. People forget just how utterly unworldly the combo of events were, it's probably more likely I'll win the lottery than that happening. Maybe somethng close (3-4 days) but nope, no 10 day not-yet-hitting-25 degrees after FIVE winter storms in FIVE days. I'm certain of it. Period.
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