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Everything posted by phdhorn
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This is one of the better posts in the last half day. I followed this stuff really closely in 2014 and Ukraine was a total cesspool. It was possibly more corrupt than Russia and I had no sympathy for the Ukrainians back then. The last thing in the world I would have wanted is for these people to have access to the button at the time it was the right thing to do. But somehow, some way, they managed to stabilize after basically 20 years of awful, awful governance and the last two or three years have been stellar. It hasn't been long at all, since Ukraine has emerged as a real worthy recipient of the West's blessings. If you were to ask most people about Zelenskyy even a week ago they may have rolled their eyes, especially at his seemingly casual dismissal of the invasion, and his chastising the US for hyping up the possibility. We now know that he was certainly playing all this like an ace gambler and knew exactly what he was doing. This guy looks to be a once in a half-century quality leader As for getting the allies together, I think it also has to be said that there was still a lot of dissension in the ranks is little as two days ago (witness Germany, italy, the Czechs, and Hungary), but only when Europe began to see what a farce Russia was as recently as Thursday with the start of the invasion, they completely changed their tune and began to pour in assistance and defiance against Russia very quickly. I'm not sure that would've happened had Russia been more formidable.
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Oh yeah... well..er.. that was...uh... Yeah, that was done on purpose just to... uh.. to.. umm... gin up some action! I knew all the time it would get warm again... Yeah, that's it!!
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Sunday's going to be nice, actually. High about 60, sunny. I'll bet somebody one bottle of beer that we've had our last daytime (i.e. later than say 10 a.m.) freeze for the year. I'd almost be willing to bet a second bottle that we may not freeze again until the fall. But it's been a weird winter so I hold off on that second one. Beer just doesn't grow on trees, you know.
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That kid above with the tape or whatever that is over his eyes/forehead apparently wasn't told they were going into Ukraine for real fighting until 11 p.m. last night. Poor SOB was doomed from the start. Hopefully he'll be treated well and realize the cocksucker he is serving.
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According to Fox, Vlad on the phone with Xi. Man what I love to hear that conversation! Xi: "Yeah Vlad, what is it, I'm busy, watching national ping pong tournament. Got to go, talk to you next week..." Vlad: "I won't be IGNORED,Xi!!"
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My first post this morning was a joke about when does the Ukrainian invasion of Russia begin? Well, maybe it's not a joke. LOL, Ukrainians sticking it to them - in RUSSIA:
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Even Putin's buddies are telling him to fuck off now. Pres. of Kazakhstan (Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev), just told Putin to eat shit when asked to help supply more troops. This is a huge blow, as Kazakhstan is one of the largest of the former SSR's and is a key location for Russia to move/stage for their eastern fronts. This guy, a tight Putin ally, not only has seen the light (a) that this invasion is idiotic, and b) former SSR's are now likely fodder for Mad Vlad), so he not only told him to fuck off, but fails to recognize the two breakaway republics as Russian, and acknowledged Ukraine as a country. This is pretty stunning, as Kazakhstan is no Western paradise (just last week they ordered shoot-to-kill during a protest on an unrelated issue). When your BBF tells you you're an asshole, well, things aren't working out so well. (the article is a little long but good - also covers Russian kinda-buddies Hungary, Czech Rep., and Romania saying in this case, fuck off. You're an asshole and we're against you on this).
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They'd be appreciative but that's not really the criteria. It's a little subjective but does have some baselines, including economics, military strength, and ability to not invade people just because you might have a small dick or hate yourself for being a gay uncreative painter (okay the last one is a maybe). This is a good primer for it, although the specs are much more technical. However, of course Sweden and Finland are eligible in droves, that's not the issue. Those countries at this point don't want to join - they feel they're formidable enough to go on their own and enjoy their independence, and their people have consistently voted as recently as last year by 2-1 not to join. Nothing against NATO, and they often (and in this case too) work closely with NATO countries to provide bases, installations for troop containment, and money. So why wouldn't they join? Part of it is historical - Finland was much more aligned with the Soviets through the years, and only after 1989 have they moved to a more pro-Western ideology. Sweden was not under the grip of the Soviets, but they're fiercely independent and really since WWII have preferred to be self-contained in their own defenses (although the did secretly cooperate with now-NATO countries in WWII and after). There was actually a time where Sweden resented U.S. involvement (up to the1980's), but that's thawed. Aart of this I also think is national pride - when the Nazis and Rooskies went up there to try to occupy, they got their asses shot off. Both have the freedom and autonomy to call their own shots in a warn which they have preferred, but they've both kept up very diligently with NATO specs on equipment etc. (Finland just bought a shitload of F-35's, e.g.). The % of the population in each who wants to join NATO has grown through the years, although in each it's still under 50%. Russia's recent threat won't really sway them - part of their independent spirit is "we're not running to NATO because you threatened us." That would be against the very thing they say they are. My guess is that they'll slowly work up to joining within the next decade. But for now, especially with this shitshow, I don't think they see a reason to fearfully go crawling to NATO, when as it is, they're essentially working side by side with them, yet retaining their own preferred independence.
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Good points. And I'm trying to kind of separate the Russian people and much of the military from the Putinistas. I would have to think that there are enough of these younger Russian dudes who are simply saying this is stupid. They seem to be fighting without much intensity or desperation, kind of like, "oh, you shot down two of our huge transports, are taking our tanks out like shooting sloths in a tree, and basically sticking it up our asses? Well, duh." I'd like to think that the Russian people are starting to seriously consider how to get this lunatic out and carry on. At this point I don't believe the world hates Russia as a whole (although I do know from experience that a lot of Europe aren't their BBF's as it is) but at some point you gotta see what this maniac is doing to your country and capture or kill him, in either order. But you're right - I can't see how the average Russian soldier has any motivation in this whatsoever - at the baseline they're very akin to Ukrainians, share blood, family, history, etc. And from what I've seen, most of these Russian guys act like they don't want to be there, period. Sure there are militaristas in the forces who get off on Russia 1765 and all that Putin shit, but from what I've seen, most of them would rather be in Odessa lapping up the Black Sea sun. Maybe I'm wrong but I cannot see how in any way whatsoever most of the younger Russians buy Putin's Return To Glory Days which mesh with Disco, the Edsel, and Big Lil' Joe.
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Facepalming himself:
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I sweater god that the Russian military reminds me of the Wednesday Night League Softball Team. Buncha pot-bellied drunks going in and get run-ruled, then go for their usual 10 pitchers at the bar (NTTAWWT). This is the feared Mighty Red Army? Someone's gonna have to re-do those Leninisque posters of tall, cut, blonde-haired Slavic gods and use this guy as a model:
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First thought of the morning: When does the Ukranian invasion of Russia and the capture of Moscow start? And what flavor popcorn is best to watch it?
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I'm beginning to wonder what would happen if Mad Vlad said, "Okay boys get out the suitcases and the keys." Would there be a revolt or coup by the military brass or would they obey? I mean surely some of these generals must look at him and go "dude has lost his fucking mind."
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CNN is such a shit show that even Wolf, who has for decades been to go to for these things, is hard to watch.
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Is recently as a decade ago, most of the Ukrainian leaders were clowns so it's quite understandable that people were skeptical. The Ukrainian leaders were either way out of their league or corrupt and serving timeB. ut this guy's become the freaking George Washington of Ukraine in 2 days. He's got balls to spare.
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I think he was just saying that he thinks it's dangerous for them to be hauling Molotov cocktails and things that they're not used to or haven't trained with, but yeah it's kind of like saying they need to fold and stack the chairs on the Titanic so nobody bumps into them and hurts themselves while it's sinking. Kind of misses the point, doesn't it?
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Lt. Col Daniel Davis on cnnl, saying that Ukrainians are finally getting their asses kicked he thinks and are not holding Kyiv very well, that the Russians have made extraordinarily fast progress through the evening to Kyiv. Seems to be the most pessimistic of the analysts I've heard so far today, I wonder if things are finally moving against Ukraine. FWIW...
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csb time: about 15 years ago I was in Prague with a group. We were having fun downtown and one guy with us, about 75 at the time, stopped into a novelty shop and bought a Russian Ushanka hat (the kind with the furry side flipped up on all sides) with a big red star pin in the front. Granted at that time it was almost a chic novelty to wear old Soviet stuff, but this guy's age and everything I cringed when he bought it. He looked like he could pass for an old, serious Politburo hack. He wore it out to the sidewalk and I noticed some dirty looks, and I didn't feel too good about him wearing it. I asked him to take off the red star and once he did he got no looks. I experienced for the first time there real-life feeling a lot of Europeans had for that regime. And that was back in the "harmless" days when wearing campy Russian stuff was okay. I'd imagine it's not so cool now, even moreso. /csb
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From WaPo: I found it interesting and it sure sounded like it the past month. I think a lot of it is due to the ingrained nationalistic/cultural zeitgeist among European countries. I think Ukrainians really didn't think Russia would attack because they have a genetic disposition to thinking that while leadership has been brutal, down deep Russians and Ukrainians are brothers and sisters and they are too much alike to do that to each other - and yes even since 2014: Ukrainians shrugged off predictions of war. Now it’s a mad dash to leave. WAPO Feb 25, 2022 5:20 PM ET It was an attack few Ukrainians anticipated would happen, certainly not on this scale. For weeks, their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and his advisers downplayed the possibilities of a Russian assault, even chastising the United States and European countries for constantly warning that an attack would happen. There were no evacuation plans or other elements of a comprehensive strategy to keep Ukrainians safe and secure in the event Russian tanks rolled in. On Wednesday night, restaurants and bars had been crowded with well-dressed people hours before the attack. Many residents attended the opera or strolled with their families past Kyiv’s centuries-old cathedrals. Airplanes arriving in Ukraine were full. “We never expected this at all,” said Ludmila, referring to the Russian assault. She and her colleagues withheld their family names out of concern for their security. By Thursday, the fears of a nation could be seen in the long queues at ATMs, gas stations and grocery stores to stock up on food and necessities. The fears could be seen in the massive traffic jams of cars filled with families desperately trying to leave the city. And they could be seen at the bus station, where passengers – carrying what little they could stuff in small suitcases – waited in snaking lines.
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Agreed, and please people, NATO is nothing like, and not in any way related to, the UN.
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Just heard on TV that major Russian storming of Kyiv is expected within hours(?).
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I think that was part of their "eventual" comments, but clearly they're going to suffer much more and getting Kiev surrounded. The only smart thing that the generals seem to have said is that Russia is executing icorrectly is keeping Ukrainian troops fighting all over the country so they can't come to Kiev and concentrate resistance.
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Petraeus on FOX now echoing Keane's assessment. Je is extremely surprised that Russia can't coordinate their air and ground operations, and both of them said that it's almost unbelievable that they couldn't take over the air field they've targeted, and not doing so has completely screwed them up. Both of them have said that eventually Russia can overwhelm Ukraine but clearly it is a cluster f right now for the dumb shits.
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Ret. Gen. Jack Keane (IMO best military analyst on TV) on Fox right now detailing why and how Russia has really been shitty in this invasion so far, and how they're really performing nothing like expected. Really good stuff. He's going over objectives and that they're not met and how they're stunningly inept so far - he also cited a few areas that they actually are doing well but for the most part terribly executed. Russell Ziskey apparently is right. I just hope it doesn't bring out more destructive weapons from Mad Vlad.
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Do you think the US military should protect Ukraine?
phdhorn replied to DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt's topic in Daily Texan
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