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Everything posted by phdhorn
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"Storm" = precip. Was careful not to say entire event. Actually, the cold was related but separate event from the storm itself. Unusual that way.
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LOL just read through this, my fubar voice to text converter did a great job. Have no idea what"come through Bruce Lee"means and I don't want to know. Anyway, the bulk of the storm is definitely passed, could be some backside spotting freezing precip but we're out of the woods precip wise now.
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Update: All right, the clearing line has come through, maybe one more band of light snow (actually is with the radar is showing) could come through Bruce Lee then I think we're done with the precip. Figures that it would save it's harshest round for right before it cleared but I think we escaped fairly well. How low it gets tomorrow a.m. depends on how much cloud cover is left. Back later if necessary, I'm considering this storm event over more or less.
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Hell yeah!
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Is that where the giant Hope Solo pit is? If so, then maybe the Atacama.
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If I leave, it won't rain, so nothing lost.
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Update: Clearing line now running thru Gillespie County (Fredricksburg). Give it another 2 hours or so. Oh, did I tell everyone that my propane pressure is down in the house, and the heater has been on/off (yeah I have enough propane, filled it last week)? Checked the regulators and no egg smell, so if a leak it's tiny. Don't have any idea why it decided to f me over this morning. But it runs okay for awhile, then not. Oh, and propane can freeze - at minus 44 degrees. It's not much below minus 42 here, so that's not the problem. We have space heater and stuff so it's still in mid-60s inside. I'm moving to the middle of the Sahara next year. Decided.
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Yes and no. This is "only" a 24 hour issue (well, it might very well be 36 or more) but again, most of the state is frozen, so it's not "just" a simple freeze. I agree w/you to fire anyone who can't deal with electrical issues, but while we're firing the state leaders (of one political party largely), we also should fire a shitload of local/regional leaders (often of the opposite political party). Because the issues last year went far, far beyond the simple grid. They involved local politics as well, and providers and managers. So as long as we fire e'erbody responsible, I can live with that. Because it was a lot more than the jackoffs in the State. A lot. Anyway, we're about halfway through this "little" freeze - which, er, covers 85% of the state.
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Maybe he should have more, and invite Boris Johnson, because the grid has over 80KMW generation/reserve next 24 hours. That's pretty impressive. But they had time this time. If the power goes off, it's not because there's not enough, or at least not a grid issue - it will be infrastructure, although the peak is expected tomorrow early morning. If there will be rolling blackouts, it'll be early Fri. morning. But this has been a pretty good test of equipment freezing, and so far, so good. Of course it's only 24 hours, not 109, but it's better than the alternative. Also, have seen where KXAN is re-upping their forecast tomorrow > freezing (it was lowered last night). Of course not everywhere will clear freezing, especially W and N areas. But we'll see how it goes.
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Update/Verdict: So far, not as bad as some of the predictions/models. Colder air got into the mid levels and at least it's sleeting vs. freezing rain - again, so far. Not the best, not the worst. Roads are less universally impassable than predicted (for our area). Temps didn't plunge quite the level expected - many areas didn't hit freezing until almost dawn. Ice models for our area have generally trended down to .10"-.25" vs. last night's .25"-.50"+. I really don't think these totals will get bad all of the sudden - but we have a few hours to go. Sleet generally bounces off stuff and lies on the ground, so sleet >>> freezing rain. Precip should start slowly tailing off starting about lunchtime. Clearing (precip, not clouds) line is NW through Junction, Brady and up - the storm is picking up speed and that clear line is moving towards us fairly quickly. That means about 2-3 hours more of whatever we get - hopefully light. Not to say it can't still come down after that area passes, but the concentrated part of the storm will be east of us, it's pulling in dry air west of us now. How cold it gets overnight will depend on how much cloud cover sticks around Friday dawn. But low 20's for sure, hopefully not much lower. I can't see suddenly this thing ramping up much more... enough to cause enough concern to stay home for a day, but probably not a lot of damage/power issues if we can get through the morning. As it turns out, most of the heavy rain did make it out before the freeze happened - much of the night was light for most of us.
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KXAN going full commando mode with a graphic and serious music and everything. Jim has even come out of his coffin to pal with cutie boy David.
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The thing that sucks about this storm is that it's really a fairly warm one. This cold layer from the front is very shallow, no more than a couple thousand feet. So the precip that forms aloft is rain, and the cold layer is so thin it might not even have time to freeze before it hits the ground (sleet), nor is frozen when it first forms in higher altitudes (snow). This stuff rains down the warm air until it hits the cold ground and then freezes. If the cold layer deepens toward tomorrow there may be more sleet and even snow flurries before the storm moves out, as the middle atmosphere will get colder. But as much as I wish this were snow, the storm is too warm aloft to produce it, in any snow would be very light and fleeting as a storm really moves past us.
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If you get to work, take a dump on the manager's desk. If you're the manager, take a dump on your own desk.
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Someone said people are freaking out in here. Are people freaking out in here? Where is it? Seems kind of like the opposite to me. Anyway, we're all gonna to die and I'm in a fetal position, sucking my thumb in my bedroom facing the wall.
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LOL, last year we brought in snow from outside to put in the tub and melt for toidy water. Only problem is, power was off, house went to 46°. and the shit stayed Slurpee the entire time. Lots of fun.
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Not sure if true, but forecast is still saying > freezing until midnight. The front is going to slowly drop temps, not quickly. Of course, this could be crap and you could die a frozen, icy death by noon. But I doubt it. As far as more/less precip, hard to call, just depends on where the most rain bands fall (faster cooling won't matter that much I think).
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In case anyone cares, the "new and improved" ERCOT dashboard (actually it kind of is improved) lists usage etc. Of most interest on the dashboard is the first item - supply and demand. Watch for that mother to start trending up later tonight, probably peaking about 74KMW early Friday. Can't do much about it but at least you can see if/when we're (you're) fooked. (If you've never seen it, you don't want that light blue line (usage) at the bottom to catch up or get near the top line ("what we can deliver to Texas at this point."). We'll see.) Enjoy the ride. The second item of course is "extra megawatts" which is always good to know (assuming it's not B.S.). They have had more time this time around to generate extra power unlike last year - 2 days ago it was at 3KMW, now it's up to 8. They're trying to get to 10-15 in reserve. Have fun watching the little green (for now) rainbow hopefully not turn other colors. At least it can help you prep - maybe. The more power they can whomp up now, the better. (Stuff froze so fast last year, as that front was a fast-movie siege m.f. that everything froze within 6-8 hours. This time around we've had more time, and will, once the front passes). https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
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Update: Not much. Our fates are pretty much sealed now. The NWS posts 2 above me reflect the news I was hoping wouldn't happen yesterday, but yeah, it did. So: - Winter Storm Warning for essentially all of CenTex. - Main issue is icing, which by now we all know about. There are two lil' rays of hope, though, maybe, or at least things to ease the pain: 1) This front is not a "blast." That is, temps aren't gonna drop 30 degrees within an hour. This one's deceptively gradual, so after it passes, you might only notice a bit breezier wind out of the north. In fact, temps aren't expected to hit freezing around here until midnight, so technically you have most of the evening (as long as you're going S or E or not far from your house in ATX) to do some chore. The rain shouldn't turn frozen until 3 or 4 a.m. And in fact morning temps should "only" be around 30° around here. But then they'll go down - and down - and down through the day. The afternoon "high" should be ~25° (give or take your typical degree or two where you live). By Friday morning, 17-24 degrees. Then we've peaked, and a slow, slow climb, not only past freezing Friday (which isn't guaranteed much out of immediate ATX area), but back to seasonal temps by next work week. One other hope is that the clouds will actually linger into Friday morning; if so, temps will stay about 5-6 degrees "warmer". (Big deal, I know, 24° vs, 19° but any little bit helps). 2) Now that we're in the bullseye of ice, it means that narrow bands or areas within this larger area could be worse - or better - than others. Your neighborhood might not get as much, while the next one over is deluged. Don't get me wrong, we're all gonna get ice, but for some it'll be a thin glaze, for others, trees down and power out (not grid-related). Especially those areas about .30" or more. Unfortunately, I see a good degree of spotty power outages, and icy roads will probably hinder repair. However the ice probably won't be at its worst until Thurs afternoon or evening, so hopefully the "worst" of it will be no power for about 1/2 day if they can get out Friday. I do think with Friday's clearing, roads will improve quickly and that'll be the beginning of the improvement. Not much else... a very cold and nasty Thursday is coming. Fortunately it's only more or less Thursday (Friday will of course dawn cold as hell but calm). Pray for Pipes, People, Pets, - and Pollination (what else you gonna do locked away in your crib?). Back later, probably with not much new. The die is cast. We'll see you on the other side. I always wanted to see Montana. Well, tomorrow I will, weather and all!
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No real update for tonight, but... Everything with this storm is ok, whatever, except I don't like how the models are trending up the ice. Anything over .30" will cause power outages you can bet. However, remember that this isn't strictly north to south... rain, ice, and snow usually fall in bands... where the heaviest bands fall no model can really predict (which is why I think we're still just barely holding onto "only" a watch, not a warning. The heaviest ice/whatever is forecast more between Waco and the Red River, but models have trended up for us. Hopefully that'll not happen. Again, looks like Houston and points S/E will stay relatively out of this... freezes at night but so for only rain for the forecast. Might be a good time to hit the beach. Back tomorrow morning for an update, after that I got a lot to do before the Chronicles of Narnia begin.
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Nope. He gone for awhile. Deservedly.
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One last thing, on travel Thursday/Friday: North or West (towards Waco/DFW/West Texas, Panhandle) - forget it. Ice/snow. Driving will be next to impossible. Maybe some main roads on Friday. CenTex Thursday - probably difficult, esp. more N and W counties, Hill Country. Snow/Ice line probably running through Belton or S. of Waco SW past I dunno, Brady. S and E region might hold up better. Probably frozen/wet line somewhere near Columbus/U.S. 77 area. But most of ATX Thus. is looking bad, Fri. better. South/East Tex This event differs from last year in that it won't freeze the Valley or S. Texas, including Houston and south (N of Houston into East Texas not included, probably a no-go). I'd say from maybe Conroeish S and E the whole thing will be just rain, and the daytimes > freezing (one huge boost for the state power is that Houston consumption shouldn't be too bad). The south coast escapes the brunt of this one, Gulf breezes push back and keep the coast warmer.
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That's okay, I've heard you act like one, so you're welcome. BTW, it's true but I have a special cabin for their moms and that's where I stay.
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Update: Uggh! A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it. Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, more accurate). And they've gotten "better", but worse, in two ways: 1) colder temps, and... wait for it... 2) more precip. Not a good recipe. Usually storms that bring in fronts do their precip thing, the front swings by, and pushes the rain out, then cold but dry hits. Not this time. A low sitting NW of us will come in starting the rain event, and the front will push the precip over the low, underrunning it. The storm will have enough punch to keep "precip"ing after temps start going down. Now it looks like Thursday will be a widespread frozen precip event. And, ATX is right smack dab on the border between significant icing and not so bad. This is actually almost the exact same scenario that started the Big Freeze last year. However, the difference is that this will move out within 36 hours, not 119, and even with this blast, it won't be quite as cold in toto. But overnights through Sunday morning will be way below freezing. And... here we go... 85% of Texas will be under hard freezes/frozen precip - are you listening, grid and power producers???? If you're not out there today prepping your sites, eat a bag. (BTW, peak power usage for this one is predicted early Friday a.m., something like 77K MW (the peak last year was like 72KMW before the shut it down). But the people say they're ready, have at least 20K MW in reserve... okay, let's see how it goes). I think it'll last for this relatively brief event... if it were 4 days or more, I doubt it. But again, things will absolutely dry out and get better starting Friday. This is a 2-day nut squeeze, not an 8 or 9. That's 100% certain (no "sneaky storms" lining up behind this next one). This will be a short but serious event. Pipes will burst if not covered, plants, etc. Sporadic power outages due to ice causing branches or lines themselves to pop but not grid-related. Definitely have 2 day's worth of "stuff" you need. However, this is a good test for statewide power... only 2 days around us but NW Texas could be under freezing24/7 for 4 or even 5 days in the most northern and western parts. I think for Austin if we can get thru Thursday, roads will clear up Friday as it'll be dry and sunny (but cold!). Enough to get back to normal. Again, nothing like 2021, but a brief taste. Winter Storm Watch issued for ATX region this morning. The last one issued last week was downgraded to advisory. This one I think will be upgraded to Winter Storm Warning (mostly due to icing conditions). tl;dr: Today (Tues.) - clouds/fog giving way to sun and 70°. Soak it up, you're gonna need it. This is main prep day. Why? Wed. - Because rain will start early afternoon in warm temps. Gets to the mid-60's before the front hits around dinnertime. But just rain thru midnight. Thurs. - Temps fall thru night below freezing. Any precip turns frozen by 3-4 a.m. Light precip lingers on until dinner, likely freezing rain or sleet (probably not snow, which would be oodles better, for our area). How bad it gets depends on how much precip is still around when front overtakes precip. Anything over .20" ice is the borderline for damaging ice. Temps struggle to get to 30°. Drier overnight but temps still fall, falling into the 20's - and lower. Fri. - coldest morning since last year, temps will be widespread teens most ATX region, maybe a few 20's S and E. Dry, clears, temps high 30's- hopefully. Still, should be enough pause to get the roads back. Sat. - Cold morning again, about 25°-30° around region. Hard freeze. Temps climb back to mid-40's. "Almost" back to normal. Last sub-freezing night overnight. Sun. - Temps get to 50's, Sunday overnight into Monday around but in many places above freezing. It's over. Back as this obviously touchy weather situation changes. Prep stuff today, you can't do it if it starts raining Wed. morning, anything wet will freeze, period. Good luck, we're not counting on you.
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Hmmm... Wrong on the amount but right on the time of day (quote the sentence before the one you did). Probably poor use of preposition but you have to get to an evening in order to have the "rest of" it (I posted that just after noon). Should have said something like "out of here by later this evening." In fact Zach Shields my man at channel 7 was the only weather guy I heard call it correctly. So I sort of us6e his forecast but called for less rain. So I'll take half your money not the whole thing.
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Not immediately for most of the state. The first freezes occurred about February 10th, and most of the state had power. I think they initiated rolling blackout something like the 12th or 13th, then the emergency happened on the 14th and power was off for most of the state for another 2 days, as an increasing number of natural gas lines froze and suppliers couldn't get the power to manage for ERCOT. Eventually there just wasn't enough power being produced to withstand the demand no matter what ERCOT did! Most of the state had power back by the 16th. I know that my power stayed on 5 1/2 days until it went off early Monday the 15th. Remember we had three major winter storms within 6 days. Any one of those storms would have been a 10-year event in and of itself. There was a lot of discussion after the event last year here but people centered a lot on ERCOT and of course they had a lot of the blame, but this was a complete failure of all electrical resources in the state - power companies were just as guilty, as were power brokers and providers, not just the managers like ERCOT. Yeah they deserve blame for not being better prepared, but that blame covers years beforehand and way, Way beyond ERCOT. Frankly they saved the grid and ultimately did their job as, crappy as they set things up. At the time of the event, ERCOT "worked." If it hadn't, power might have been off for much of the state for 6 months at least- my FIL to be it's a major power manager in the state, and listening to the horror stories if it would've burned up make anything happen last winter pale by comparison - thousands of fried transformers, burnout wires, burnt and broken metal, etc; it would have been months if not over a year to fix all that stuff, and far, far more expensive. I'm not defending them per se or their planning policies and the overhaul has been a good first step, but when it came to doing exactly what they're supposed to do, they did save power for Texas. I'll give them that. People can batter around should have and would have but at least they saved the grid. Sure as hell better than the alternative. The problems with the grid go Way beyond ERCOT, but the solutions are actually not so difficult, and I think the state is on its way to making it a lot better, actually. If people are actually willing to listen on a open-minded basis.
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