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Everything posted by phdhorn
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Probably ball game right there in a stretch of three plays.
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Good God Garofalo is an idiot. I think I'd slug him if I were a teammate.
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This game relatively sucks, but it's still somewhat watchable. Why I don't know, maybe it's the cold messing with peoples' ability to play normally. I think Green Bay will win it since they're the best team in the league at home, but San Francisco doesn't suck, sorry. That's a tough team.
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Quite proud. My kid was one of those for whom UT was exceptional in forming him. He entered a relatively shy, insecure kid with not tons of self-esteem and emerged like a whole different person. Sure some of it was simply growing into an adult, but I wish I had the 35 pages I needed to detail how going to UT specifically transformed the kid into something to behold. I know he's proud of it because he went out and bought like a $300 diploma frame a few months ago, and now he's got it. He's currently doing something else than engineering but I know he's exceptionally proud to be a UT grad, in Engineering nonetheless. I feel for the "entering" parents who chew nails over the process, remembering how it was when we were waiting. One more time I'll recite this for applying HS seniors, it definitely worked for us (my kid wasn't top 7 or anything like that). In the immortal words of Brad Hamilton to Jeff Spicoli in Fast Times: Learn it. Know it. Live it. And that is this: The essays are critical. Don't be afraid to express yourself and especially your humanity. Be honest and up front. Have a plan for how you can help others with your UT education without being fakely philanthropic; be sincere. They can smell B.S. pretty easily. They get 4,000 applications from kids who include stuff on resumes like "I was President of the European Union, won 5 Nobel Prizes, and singlehandedly waved my hand to stop the hurricane." That's all well and good and needed, but they're looking for something that will make you stand out from the other applications, which are essentially dead even. And by stand out I don't mean accomplishment (although those are fine), but a perspective, an honest reporting about yourself and what you want to do. If you just say "get a job", uh, don't expect much. But if you can admit your strengths and faults (to a degree), they get a good picture of you and why and how UT can help you. I'm convinced this got my kid in (well he had a strong ACT but still). They do read them and love to see a well-defined portrait of the candidate besides the usual schpiel about how great you've done so far. Good luck (well, probably not this year, it's past time, but.. next year!).
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Stumbled back on this and remembered a little over 4 yrs. ago when we were stressin' over admission, etc. A little over 4 years later, he did it!! Now a Longhorn with letters! Walked in May, diploma'd last month.
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Remember too that the most basic reliable weather records only go back about 150 years, and almost a third of that is sketchy. Beyond that point, we really don't know much; we either depend on very unscientific descriptions or paleoclimatology (the science of which is only emerging). Also, "a 500 year flood" doesn't mean a flood "like that" is likely to occur no more than once in 500 years. It means the chances of say 3 hurricanes being "a 500 year event" are 1 in 500 for any given year. You can have 3 "500 year events" in the same year. That's why when I was talking about our February 21 storm I framed it in the context of odds. In reality, there is absolutely no way to truly say that such and such an event is only likely to happen every n years. There is no data for that type of prediction. USGS uses "frequency analysis" (which I'm sure is also the go-to of your local bookie) to determine these odds, based on a number of factors. Thus, the Feb. 21 storm is not "unlikely to happen for 500 years again" but rather "has a 1 in 500 shot of happening on any given day. (BTW, there was no official "n year storm" calculated for the storm. Anyway, talking about long-term weather probability, or even climate, is dubious at best, since we only have 150ish years of anything approaching reliable scientific data. I do think the answers will come from geologic climate scientists - that's the only way besides a time machine to know (also human paleontology helps - that was part of my doctorate). This is why bookies or your Magic 8 Ball is the most reliable weather/climate predictor going.
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Be sure to include the etymology for the word, which comes from the Latin for "rod" or "streak". Not quite "on the rag" but close. You should be able to work it into some sexual harassment case or something.
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You don't want the virgas that dry up before they hit the ground, though.
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Mostly virga so far so far, drying up before it's the ground. However, I do see some light Frozen precip coming in, probably won't do much but might get a little slick on bridges out there. Should be out by dinner time.
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Well, at 11 the temp in Austin officially was 34°. So about a 6 1/2 hour straight freeze. Damn, did't quite gt to the 216-straight freeze last year. So close.
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(from that weather page) I would imagine it'll be a long, long, long time until we see something like this again: I mean, uh... wow.
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I agree with you here, except that it was nine days < 32° for most of our area. Officially it was 8 days, 23 hours, and 23 minutes between NWS freeze advisories (Feb. 11-20). Wife and I talked about this last night. The perfect storm (pun intended) of what had to happen to produce that weather event are (to me) almost astronomical. People forget it started midweek with rain, then froze night and day (not predicted) for 4 days, preventing using the roads to buy supplies and deliver gas, etc. WIth that freeze ice built up for 4-5 days, taking out power lines, all this even before the big storm. Then the storm hit overnight Sun 16th and dumped 6"-8" of snow on top of the ice, further stressing infrastructure. The storm brought in a second, even colder front, and temps across the area never got out of the teens in most places until Wed. afternoon (19th) when the thing was finally over. If anyone wants to review the events, NWS has a pretty good not-too-long summary of that week here: https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm
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Aftermath: A little warmer than forecast, although temps are not gonna move much today. Precip should pick up if at all between now and about 3-4 p.m. Still potential for spotty icing in ATX area, but looks like the systems is even drier than forecast. Not done yet but almost. Tomorrow a.m. is gonna be a dick-cracker, probably avg. about 25° around the Austin burbs. Then more or less cold but no big deal after that. All in all, not much with this event - up to now. Shouldn't get worse, tho. I did get a light dusting here in the Cave, where it always rains (snows, hails, sleets, fire-brimstones, etc.). Went outside and snapped this pretty pic:
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Yeah, fairly unusual that the bulk of the storm is going to be South of us, and that the more wintry weather is South rather than north: (Pink is winter storm warning, blue is winter weather advisory)
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Good news, although these things can change sometimes, but I'm feeling like that's where my head was going, too. One important update now though: The front is really been barreling along and looks like it'll arrive in the Austin area shortly after sunset this evening (about 6 hours earlier than forecast a few days ago). So if you're preparing outside, do it sooner rather than later. Temps for free fall and winds will pick up to 30 mph gusts. Precip isn't really scheduled to fall until late overnight before dawn, and again it looks spotty and light. I'll be back if it changes. Watch your ass on the road tomorrow morning, though. Looks like highs are going to reach the mid to upper 30s tomorrow which is why I think we've been downgraded.
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Another really interesting thing I've learned - you wouldn't think it's this way - but we import much, much more from Russia than we export to them, almost to the tune of 5:1 in value (2021 almost $27 billion Russia vs. almost $6 billion U.S (link below). And the top 3 imports from Russia include oil, gas, and semifinished metals (iron, steel, etc.). Our exports to them (top 3) are wood pulp, aluminum scrap, and motor vehicle parts. I look at that and think that, yeah, we don't have much leverage in this game. They throw far more stuff our way than vice-versa. And that stuff is more basic to our energy stability. About the only thing we could do is to relieve militarily - which would be far worse than anything we've had in the Middle East in the last 60 years. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4621.html
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Possibly, but there would likely be a ton of more dead other armies (Ukraine, UK, NATO, etc.)... and as we know so well, an overwhelming desire to get out/give up and concede defeat. Attrition works both ways.
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Not to mention that the entire eastern half of Ukraine is overwhelmingly Russian in culture, identity, and favoritism. I would think that a good portion of those people would welcome being "back" in Russia. I can see a lot of the land east/south of the Dneiper essentially turning Russian within days. The ironic thing in all this is that Ukraine is light years away from being qualified to enter NATO anyway... they wouldn't be able w/o special exception to "make the grade" for a decade at least. Obama's administration gets blamed for the Crimea in 2014, but there's nothing whatsoever they really could have done (sanctions, yawn). That is exactly the same scenario now. Nothing you can so short of dropping a nuke, and well, we know how that would go. So... It won't take long for the Russians to render the Ukrainian Air Force moot, and the Chia Pet-era Ukrainian tanks will be nothing but supper for the Russian current-tech models. Ukraine's best bet is to give up the east, huddle near Kiev and defend it, and hope like hell someone comes to their aid militarily. I don't see that. But I don't think Putin would want the entire country, just the eastern half. Of course, that's just a guess. Belarus as well as Moldavia might also be at risk - Putin wants his buffers again. But I think he would stop there. He can no longer go into Romania, or the Baltic states, which are in no way culturally/racially tied to Russia. If he did that, Russia would lose big time... unless China came in. The recent Chinese-Russo alliances (space race, Siberian 2 pipeline, 2015 grain accords) have really warmed relations between the two. There's no way right now China would enter militarily. But they could easily supply Russia with current tech weapons for years. Unfortunately, this could be a case where one of the former satellites is just (re)-given up. Because there's not much anyone can do about it, and the future of Europe and Asia is as concerning as at any time since 1945. I don't see any way the Western allies could defeat a Russo-Chinese military campaign - without huge, significant destruction to people and property - and yes, in our own country. I think the best hope is if Putin wants the country, he'll get it - and hope that's about it.
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Sometime geopolitics is complex, sometimes it's not. This one isn't. Russia could invade the Ukraine and there's nothing anyone in the world can do about it, really. And there won't be any significant ramifications for Russia if they do. While we're at it, China could invade Taiwan and there's nothing anyone in the world can do about it, really. And there won't be any significant ramifications for China if they do.
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That guy in Alaska in the other weather thread apparently shits outside in below-freezing weather. So yeah, man up. (BTW, I see where he mentioned he was well-compensated for his skills up there. Seems like they could pay him enough to build an indoor can if he was?).
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Oh, and don't rush to the fuckin' grocery store to buy it out. Got damn that pisses me off. It's less than 24 hours - more than typical for us this time of year. Don't be a snowflake (pun intended) dickwad.
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Update (not a lot different): Winter Storm Watch issued for our counties and south last night. Could: 1) be canceled entirely; 2) turn into Winter Weather Advisory; or 3) Become Winter Storm Warning. You don't want that last one. However, even if this occurs, the amt. of precip will be light and relatively brief. Again, the entire area of precip should be outta here by Thurs. dark. Could be icy roads and bridges, but it'll pass. Other trend is slightly colder Thursday all day - now it looks as if some of the N and W CenTex will struggle to get > freezing (south/east portions will). If that happens, then could be a 24-28 hour freeze in parts. I'm still thinking nope, won't happen. However Hill Country watchout... precip and temps will probably induce it. This weak storm system will be interesting in that most of the precip will pick up after the system passes by Austin - most of it will be between here and the coast. Could heighten problems for S and E Texas (but probably not Houston or the coastal cities - too warm). tl;dr: Again, these things are roulette wheels in predicting pinpoints of temps and precip. At this point I'm still with "cold rain, mix of sleet and snow around ATX, tricky driving in spots though Thursday, very cold each morning between Thurs and Sun, but above freezing and NO PRECIP after Thurs night."
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The longer those models hold up, the more likely. But I'd say right now it's about a 30% chance. But that model is picking up on the increased moisture more south and east in Texas as the system nears the Gulf. I'm not buying it yet, either. Stress yet... Watch for them to issue a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory by tomorrow maybe early afternoon. If so, good chance. If not, I don't think it'll happen. Maybe the 2nd of the two...
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