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phdhorn

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  1. I stopped watching it in early November (see my post above). Wife kept watching it and assured me it kept sucking trash big time. One of my recent medical bills was stunningly engaging by comparison.
  2. Here's a good article that appeared today by no less than NPR detailing why the whole severe weather/climate scientific linkage is lacking. (P.S. I make it my habit to NOT EVER discuss political topics in the main weather threads - I ignore anything that pops up there - and if I do ever discuss it, it'll be in Daily Texan which WON'T have to be moved to CR. But the whole discussion usually quickly gets bogged down by shitheads who know nothing about it (which is okay) then just "think" it's this way or that and shit on others who don't. No fucking thanks. Take that shit to the pigsty). Anyway, this is a pretty good layman's article.... https://www.npr.org/2021/12/13/1063676832/the-exact-link-between-tornadoes-and-climate-change-is-hard-to-draw-heres-why Basically it says what I posted yesterday... just too much not known. This is the real answer, and if you see anyone quoted who says "definitely!" or "definitely not!" they're carrying some kind of agenda, period, and are likely to be funded by some political group to get results. (Hint: the best places to go are impartial (for the most part) orgs, like NWS, National Severe Storms Center, etc. - stay away from "Institute for Climactic Oopsie" or "Association for Climate Never Don't Ever Change".) Stick to (in general) impartial university or govt' sources). We don't know enough yet, how things directly contribute to changes in tornado strength, frequency, and geography. This doesn't mean it's not possible (see the last sentence in the article). But for now, the science doesn't prove it. The rest of the argument (not NPR's here, the general public/political one) after that is bullshit. Anyhow, here's an excerpt: This tornado storm was "only" one (again, the Edwardsville storm was the only other separate supercell (so far that we know) that produced a tornado - the rest of the line up and down didn't). But this "single" storm was awful, terrible, and although it "only" skimmed 1-2 towns, it hit Mayfield in almost the worst time and place, and the death toll was exceptionally higher. Tragic. Someone asked about donations - Here's an article listing most of them. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2021/12/11/how-help-mayfield-kentucky-communities-affected-tornadoes-fundraisers-donations/6477051001/
  3. Thanks, I'll take a pass. I don't post in there. It's a futile waste of time to me. I like this thread because it sticks to the science or hard news (so far). Hopefully it'll keep doing so.
  4. A few follow-ups to this FWIW, some related, some not directly (some of this subject to change as we learn more about this latest storm): - Looks like this was not a "tornado outbreak" but rather a "tornado family." What difference does it make? Not a lot to the poor souls in harm's way, but meteorologically, an "outbreak" is an event of multiple tornadoes spawned from different storms (supercells). This storm is looking pretty much like it's in the "tornado family" category, where one single storm can spawn multiple tornadoes, or retract and lower again. All of this apparently was one horrible, single supercell (the Edwardsville storm was a separate one, so the "outbreak" was - 2 - for this event). Anyway, this single storm regenerated itself over 200+ miles and threw down others - in the same storm. - Despite this tornado complex, 2021 follows a 5 year run where the # of U.S. tornadoes is down compared to average. 1,192 U.S. tornadoes this year sure doesn't sound like "down", but it is. And keep in mind over 93% of these tornadoes are EF1 or lower, a good bit also spawned out of hurricane landings. - "Unheard of in December" - not quite, though definitely rare. In 2019 an outbreak (multiple storms) across Southern LA, MS and AL spawned 40+ tornadoes. Why did you not know about this? Because "only" 3 people were killed - most of them were weaker and over non-inhabited land. But that was December 16-17, 2019. But winter tornadoes are not galactically rare. Big, destructive ones like this is rare for December, although not meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in general. - The # of EF3 and stronger tornadoes between 1950 and today shows a downward turn of over 50%. - (Speaking of which, haven't caught up today, but original reports were that this tornado was "only" and EF3 but in the worst possible places for the most death/destruction. However, I think NWS is requesting structural engineers/officials, and when they do that, they have reason to believe this might be in the EF4 or 5 category. Should know in a day or so). - One current argument is whether there has been at least a partial shift from the Great Plains to the Southeast. Some say probably, others say no, either the area is expanding, or that they're better documented and hit a more densely populated Southeast so it seems like more. Under further study. But it seems that these Southeastern-shifting tornadoes are more destructive - is this true? The answer is maybe. Arguments for are that the terrain in the SE is hillier and the atmospheric conditions a little different than the drier Great Plains. This can contribute to strength (or take away from it). A second factor is that due to a closer proximity to the Gulf, these Southeastern tornadoes can last well into, or form during, the dark overnight hours. Arguments against include: night time tornadoes are more dangerous because you can't see them, because people are usually "sitting ducks" (i.e. asleep and oblivious to their approach), and/or they're hitting into denser, more populated areas - hence death/damage, but over all not a stronger tornado. Another argument against is that with everyone having video etc. handy, we are documenting far more tornadoes and storms than even 10 years ago. They might seem to be more but perhaps they're just being recorded more. Again, under study. This one didn't hit in the wee hours, but certainly when people were winding down for the day - and of course it took several hours to unfold over the length of time. In short, we don't know yet if the alley has shifted, grown larger, or is the same just better witnessed/documented, and in denser areas. Under study. - Finally, reliable tornado records only go back to about 1950. Before that, the record is sketchy at best. We just don't have much reliable info besides the ones that people saw and documented. This is why the previous point "only" goes back to 1950. It's when the Weather Service began to do stats. Add to this that we know only a bit about how tornadoes form, never mind their relationship to the frequency and severity of supercell and other storm complexes. In other words, "it's under study." Tornado and hurricane research with regards to climate is still very, very immature; the science is relatively young, and there's not a ton of long-term info to rely upon - yet.
  5. Maybe it's age, but man although A-B is my go-to CO resort, the last 2 times I had attacks of altitude sickness (which has only happened to me there). I guess because it's so damn high. Fortunately both happened on "get to" slopes, not on the steeps. But I spent something like 5 hours one day in the Ski Patrol clinic, barfing and wanting my life to end it hurt so bad. Got to the hotel, laid down for a few mins. and it was gone. Not sure I want to go to A-B again, at least unless I've been at altitude for awhile. NB: Getting old sucks.
  6. LOL, my tongue-in-cheek joke was interrupted by reality! Correct, boarders not allowed. But... I was kinda referring to something else in my millionairesses' quote.... oh well... lol! Edit for your other post: CB is a blast, and really not a bad place for kids. The ski school is known for teaching and most of all "killing time" for parents. Good people who can hang with the little ones. I took my 2 kids there when they were both under 10 and they loved it. There's a whole area (Prospect) that can handle middle-aged kids for one thing). Gunnison is kind of a sorta dead town, but good eating places. The only other thing I liked is that we stayed at the resort, which prevented tedious lugging of kids' shit and the half-hour car ride back to town (although we did a Gunnison stay one year, too). CB used to be pretty family-friendly with very reasonable on-slope lodging prices. Of course 10 years later and after a pandemic, I have no idea how they are now. (phd's little secret: I got a "mountain guide" (and not an instructor) and told him to take me to the stashes. He was psyched as he got to ski at a higher ability and we did the entire North Face and thigh-deep steeps most of the day. Anyway my secret is: North Face is (not so secretly) one of the coolest higher ability areas in the western U.S. The other secret is ask mountain guides if you can go there - most love it as they're usually great sliders, and even with the spring break relative crowds, you might speak up and cobble together a few adventurers to go there as a group - provided that that's your interest/ability... if not, they can usually tailor a few hours to whatever your liking is - use them!). Another thing although irrelevant to you... you don't have to go I-70 to get to CB. But that's another topic since you're covered.
  7. Or, because it used to smell like the family about 30 minutes after eating curry.
  8. Potpourri gleaned from various above: - Watched Beaver Creek FIS Men's Downhill on TV this weekend. "Snow" on the slope obviously canned. Absolutely zero snow around it, green/brown. Not sure I've ever seen that. - It's gonna take a lot of snows/cold to get Colorado skiable in December. La Niña portends to be better for Northern Rockies (WY, MT, and north into Canada). Not saying it won't snow a lot this year, but technically it's a crapshoot for Colorado in a fairly strong La Niña year, which this is. - Deer Valley - amusing stop for a day, but not for serious sliders. But they make you feel like a million bucks. They also grade the slopes super generously so all those millionairesses can brag that "I did the blacks". I think we're talking about ski/boarding there, perhaps not. - I'd try skis (if you're an "only" boarder" or vice-versa) only if you want to waste a day and fart around. Otherwise you won't enjoy it much at all. Trust me on this. While La Niña is only a guess as to weather effects, and certainly it could be a snowy year for Colorado and Central U.S., good bets during these types of years are sliding north of Cent. Colorado, and the Sierras (and any resort in SW Canada. If it snows like hell in Colo, good. But if not, you know why.
  9. She didn't make it, so it's a recovery. Sadly, both died.
  10. I'll give 'em a break. They saved Western civilization for 1400 years. None of us would be here in any way shape or form like we are today if they didn't. Besides, people like playing bingo.
  11. McNamara looks better than he has earlier in his career but he gets me nervous, he's the most inconsistent QB of most of the top 10 teams. I would be shocked if Michigan scored over 21 offensive points. For that reason I think Michigan is limited, and George is piss and going to play their asses off. Even though they choke every year, this when they might just make it. Bama beat the living shit out of them and they want revenge. Are they going to be the best game Georgia has played this year. And I'm kind of rooting for Michigan (as an alum).
  12. This is one of those years where it wouldn't bother me if the committee felt that no teams were good enough to qualify for the playoffs and just cancel them.
  13. Well, one thing to appreciate, Detroit will be their last memory of the free world! HA HA!
  14. But what about beating Kansas? That's now a major concern. And - gulp! - we play them on the road next year!!!!!!!!
  15. Taking my parking space? This should be legal in that case. That, along with walking in the damn middle of the lane, too stupid to walk to one side or the other.
  16. Okay, but you can still creep past it in a car on Lake Austin/Enfield if you at least want to give it a free look.
  17. Also, if you haven't been down by Mozart's (next to Hula Hut), that's totally worth it. Amazing display, well, well worth the ride. Tradition now for about 10 years best as I can figure.
  18. 1) Was yuge up until some time in the late 00's or so. 2) Then too many people died/moved/got sick of the traffic. They stopped it for at least 10 years if not longer. 3) Movement in the last 3-4 years to get it back by the residents. By '18-'19 it was pretty good again! 4) Not sure what/if pandemic knocked it out but my understanding is residents are up for it. I'd say 80% chance it's worth "lets get our roll on" and it'll be great. Edit: If you have a vehicle with a sunroof, that is absolutely the best way to see the 37th lights. You can avoid parking/walking hassles (esp. for elderly/infirm/tots and below) and get the same overhead effect. Kids go nuts, stick out of the sunroof and look at all of it. Trust me on this.
  19. Looking at the schedule, I'm thinking one thing that can happen is every other team in the country turns up with Covid and we forfeit our way to the National Championship. I mean, it could happen! (Also wondering if I should put a bet on which game we change coaches). Anyway go horns whatever yeah all that whatever.
  20. This is a good topic... I have a bagful of $ to donate. Wife works for Apple, which as a nice matching program. Only problem is that there are something like 700,000 charities listed. Will never have the time to go over them. I did donate yesterday to Pets Alive for cats (always close to my heart), as it was triple-matched. I want to donate to a matched charity(ies), and especially something for infrastructure or investment, not just a one-time meal or whatnot (as helpful as that is). Also will be donating to a religious charity, looking for one that's again an investment (i.e. a few years ago we donated to a church which was putting in a water supply in Guatemala). I also want to know if possible what specifically the money will go to, even if it's listed before donating. Not really looking for advice, though comments welcome, I guess tl;dr = 1) there's a lot of charities out there, how in the world do you have the time to browse them all, and 2) I like charities that have a program of investment. Oh well, got 30 more days, we'll see.
  21. Yeah, I'm sure we were absolutely outliers, LOL! Lots of very, very rich bookies after this one (note the first sentence). Lol just wow.
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