The thing about last year's (well, last Feb's) event is that the models, which 99% of the time moderate as you've said, got worse. Then the actual weather got worse than the models. Most people forget by now that the main reason why it got so bad is that NO model (I can remember anyway) predicted freezing temperatures before the main storm hit on Sunday night, but temps went < 32° on Thursday and never got above freezing. We had light bouts of rain or drizzle that froze and trucks, supplies, etc. couldn't go anywhere.
Didn't take away from the main problem of natural gas lines freezing and all that horror, but the fact that people weren't able to get out and get food or propane or whatnot made a terrible situation twice as bad.
If I were a betting man, (hah!) I would bet that a similar 9-10 day 24 hour freeze won't happen again in my our my kids' lifetimes here. But... that's why most bets lose. Edit: I get what you said about losing the cold before it comes back into the models (which is why I think it might actually get "down" to the 50's or possibly a little lower for this coming event), but really the huge, huge majority of them for Texas always moderate a lot warmer than the first crack like we're seeing in this one. Pretty Boy on KXAN said last night that he thinks that the super cold air won't come down here next week and that it'll be seasonable, and I agree.
But, hey, our Magic 8 Balls only work some of the time. I doubt it'll happen, I mean really doubt, but will leave a 5% CYA.