This ain't good: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/26/nearly-half-of-americans-fall-deeper-in-debt-as-inflation-boosts-costs.html
This week of course all the big #'s coming in... key # of course is today's CCI numbers, and Thursday's GDP Q2 released. The icing on the cake is Friday's PCEPI data (which charts costs of goods bought by consumers... that'll tell whether Thursday's GDP report looks shaky (whatever side of 0 it's on), or pretty valid. Good chance it's negative and therefore recession. Maybe it'll skate by with a atom-sized positive #, but I doubt it. Nevertheless the longer numbers portend a more likely recession (now or into the latter half of 22). But I suppose throwing out Opposite Day memos is what you do when your team expects shitty numbers: https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-getting-ahead-expected-195337271.html
And, oh yeah, 2 consecutive neg GDP quarters IS a recession. Doesn't mean a big or long one, but yeah, it's a recession. It's never been "official" but it's always the one that we've gone by for oh about 8 decades at least. So yeah, it's a recession if the number says so.
So far Wall St. earnings are about 50/50 which is actually better than expected. But Wal-Mart's big bomb definitely is a major downsider for this economy. The numbers this week are probably the most critical since this whole shitty mess began in early 2020. Not only because we'll know where we've been, but as most things that get more data and fill in the gaps, we'll know where we're likely going, and at least an idea for how long.