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Everything posted by phdhorn
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Here's an article that's really not worth reading, but you need a source: https://www.newsweek.com/brian-laundrie-attention-turned-fort-de-soto-park-after-dog-bounty-hunter-tip-1633564 Synopsis: 1) Pup the Batty Hunter said "evidence" is in Ft. De Soto Park that he was there early Sept. 2) Sheriff's office there said <yawn> yeah well great, we're not looking because <we think you're nuts> no one has given us any evidence. 3) FDSP is on a skinny snake of land on the north side of Tampa Bay. It's a total dead end. If he were there he'd be an idiot to stay there, there's no way out. So maybe he went there to bury something or throw some shit in the ocean (it's pretty close to his house). But unless he left a laminated note saying, "I'm going from here to _______ and you can find me on _____ day at ______ time at _______ GPS coordinates," not worth much. 4) One other thing is it has a ton of docks/boats, but unless he used/stole one (which hasn't been reported), so what? Basically, Dog has at least done one thing - given us hope for the return of the Mullet.
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Update: Weather models are showing (I'll be back if they change): Tonight: Clouding up by dinner time. "Frontal" type squall line comes through overnight, can drop a lot of rain maybe. Not nec. severe but 1-2 could be. Rain lingers after that... could be a 1"-2" event for a lot (yeah, we'll see). Wed.: more or less dry day, a "break" between the 2 systems. Thurs.: 2nd bigger low moves toward us, rain picks up Thurs. afternoon. Periods of heavy rain scattered. Fri.: same - on/off all day periods of rain, some heavy. Too early to tell if all day or 1-2 concentrated periods. Sat.: rain moves out by evening. Between Fri.- Sat. 2"-5" could fall in some spots. Everyone should get at least an inch or so. Always dicey to predict this stuff but I'll be back if the above looks like crapola eventually.
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Restricted Stock as Part of Compensation Package
phdhorn replied to Seasick Sailor's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
nm double post -
Restricted Stock as Part of Compensation Package
phdhorn replied to Seasick Sailor's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
Just for laughs here is a schedule for my wife's stock plan the last 5 years - not giving anything away as the prices etc here are public and easily found. As you can see, the "lumps" granted are small, usually in the tens or low hundreds, at a time. But the income can add up. RSU's aren't supposed to be a second income, just a "reward" of a little more income. The largest grant was 88 shares, the average about 63 shares per grant. Hardly the 10,000ish nightmare scenario and very manageable. (Note that we cashed out already half of the first 3 (oldest) grants... we do this 2-3 grants (or maybe $50max, whichever is less) at a time.) (FWIW we'll probably cash out the 2-3 oldest ones this year, and we "only" add about $7K to her income and only pay capital gains on like $5K difference in stock price from grant to selling). But that $83K total figure isn't daunting because we can cash out in pieces. Bottom line is that hell yes, RSU's are great, and most companies are going to these as opposed to the older stock options, because they actually benefit the employee and the company in their own way. I would take a job where RSU's are 20% of my income as long as I keep up with them and cash them out when vested or as soon as the stock is reasonably profitable (i.e. not underwater) after that. -
Restricted Stock as Part of Compensation Package
phdhorn replied to Seasick Sailor's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
The thing in this example is that few people are given that many shares of RSU's, which yeah, would be a huge income problem. My wife works for Apple and I do the family finances. She's gotten several RSU grants in chunks, and most of the time they rarely go over 1,000 shares total - and often this chunk is chopped up and vested in say 6 month or 12 month periods (i.e. those 1,000 shares might have 4 "sections" of 250, each vested on a different, and ensuing date). We've never had to write a check to anyone and we've never gotten so much income from vesting that we're in the hole - if a company releases shares like that, knowing the employee's standard yearly income, that would be suicidal and no one would work there! Apple is arguably the largest, or one of the largest companies out there, and they certainly don't grant shares to regular joes in tens of thousands per RSU grant... (maybe the top execs, but they have so much worth, it's probably dog food money). But even so, those "paltry" grants of a few hundred or whatever shares add up and have done very nicely for us. And I believe Apple takes the withholding of the tax when granted (I think we can elect otherwise but this works for us). That only leaves the vesting amount and it's never taken us to a new tax bracket, and maybe adds $1K of income tax. Nothing that's the horror story mentioned above. That said, it's usually better to sell the RSU's at, or shortly after vesting, as has been said here. At the very least, don't let 'em sit forever... turn them into compensation (cash or reinvest in the market) in regular intervals, as some have mentioned here. I've never heard of anyone having to be out on the "cash plank", ready to drop into the sea of debt, with RSU's... if you are, you're doing it very wrong. At least if they give someone in tens of thousands of shares per grant (highly unlikely unless you're in the CEO level), pay the tax on the grant immediately and sell them as close to vesting date (unless of course the tax is underwater) as possible (you'll pay capital gains on the difference of the stock price at issuance vs. date sold). -
I think even the OJ jury couldn't bullshit their way outta this one.
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That last rain event like 2 weeks ago, there was one tiny red blob in pretty much a 50-mile sweep, and it was... you guessed it... right over my house. Got 1.45" when the rest of you were sucking dust. I wish I could've did a screenshot of it. Out here, the streams are gushing, the 4 ft. long trout are jumping, and the rainforest is doing just fine.
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Nope but models are: 1) predicting widespread rain, and 2) predicting rather evenly the distribution. This means generally that everyone gets rain. But nope, we're not close to pinpointing stuff like that wi/in 200 miles, too many factors. However once it's seen where this low actually sets up, at least we can get closer (say within 250 miles). That'll happen about Wed. Here's the Euro model: .. and the Amero model: Of course this will look a lot different by Tuesday. Maybe the best way on this is not to overthink or think this will happen, but more the pessimist, hey at least there's a chance of it right now. But I think the setup coming has a history of being a rainmaker. The only other caution I'll have is that while at times these can fizzle to "nevermind", they can ramp up to be serious situations. My guess is basically down the middle. Rainy days with periods of heavy rain but only scattered minor flooding. At least here on Sunday at this point.
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A la hornian's post, yep, looks like, no really, mid-end of this week is going to be a decent rain event. 2 lows coming, the first not so big, the second potent. The second low will slide down and get cut off from the jet and move slowly. Cutoff lows in the spring and fall can sometimes be huge (flooding) rainmakers. In our case, could happen here/there, not everywhere. But models are showing 3"-6" in spots. Yeah, models, whatever. But when they start agreeing w/in enough range, things get more certain. Expect a little rain Wed., then most of it with the 2nd low coming in and slowing down on Thurs. especially, and into Friday. Not sure when it'll move out, probably by Friday evening. Hopefully some good rain for everyone, with an eye on training/flooding in limited areas. We'll see. ** Usually I try to post here only when things are significant enough and beyond the status quo (i.e. 100° forecasts up through about now are not beyond the status quo, nor is 20% chance of rain on Derka or whatever. So this is one of those "yep could be a pretty decent spell of rain" posts.
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Yeah on second thought, looks like one of those Canadian "no need to wear over your face" miracle masks. Just having it on protects you. But only in Canada. That's a mask as far as I can tell, lol. Or maybe not. Or maybe Or punt. Too bad the woman photo-shooter has Parkinson's or it might be more apparent.
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So the latest is that some lady in Toronto sees this guy coming out of a hotel, appearing "flustered." 1) Uh, yeah, no, not even close (did someone MSPaint that beard on, because it looks fake as hell). 2) Yeah I know she probably had to stealth-snap, but holy shit, why can't people take a simple picture without it looking like it was run through a Bigfoot filter 23x? The search continues... maybe inside YOUR house! Did you ever consider that???!?!?!
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Not much concrete here, but two investigators discuss where he might be... not much besides them guessing but a few items of note: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/gabby-petito-case-where-could-brian-laundrie-be-10-days-after-slipping-away/ar-AAOLYfd Synopsis: 1) Used swamp as cover to go elsewhere (yeah, we know); 2) Possible location could be S. Florida (det. says he gets hired to find a lot of rehab kids there who live on nothing, FWIW); 3) They don't think Mexico (too many Americans would recognize him) or C. America (you need money to survive, else the authorities quickly re-patriate you); 4) Possibly back out West, or somewhere far from FL where people are less likely to have him in mind; 5) FBI not "handling" the swamp situation (it's still local police) because FBI doesn't think he's there (interesting); 6) Both do not think he's killed himself (I agree, why not just kill yourself in the house or something, after all, you'll be dead and who cares where you're found?); (Not in this article but others - he left his phone and wallet at the house (my guess is he's got stolen stuff, and the arrest charges seem to indicate that). I gotta say if this guy isn't dead he's sure learning quickly or has a knack for shrewd crime planning. And I don't think he's dead.
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I can't tell... their house isn't exactly Xanadu, but they own 2 other houses, or sold them (for not much profit, they don't seem to be real estate gurus). But the camper story and picking up the Mustang in the reserve, all of it would only make sense if he's not there. I do think if he's not there, his modus operandi would be to get as far from Florida as fast as possible, before the heat's on. It's not unreasonable to think he easily slipped over the border in Texas (about only a 12 hour drive from the Tampa area). Of course dude could be dead, and if he's currently turning into a well-satisfying gator shit right now, they won't find him. Walsh said one thing that does make sense, whatever the case... he thinks that the guy will be found out by the public/social media. Obviously it's happened so far in this case, and he thinks it won't be the cops who solve it but some tip or something someone sees/records, etc. Social media is a host of evil things, but one thing it does well is work in situations like this.
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1) No one watches CNN any more, their numbers are down almost 50% from January, so who cares what they say? 2) Listened to/read some John Walsh on this... not sure if he's the National Enquirer of criminal investigation now, but he has done a stellar job in 25 years of catching hard-to-get perps. He thinks that it's almost 100% the case that Laundrie is not in the swamp, that he never went to the swamp, that it's a red herring, and that he's almost 100% likely (with the help of his parents) far from his house, probably in another country now - totally played cops/media. Not saying I fully agree, but it sure is stacking up like it... I think dude is sipping a frozen M on some Mexican/South American beach.
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I think if someone actually did try to cart someone to the ZOD and kill them, that there would still be a trial. Based on the only case (apparently) testing this zone, a guy killed an elk illegally there. The judge ruled that a trial would happen in Wyoming's district and they were gonna have it. But they did a plea deal (the guy was "correctly" brought up on other charges, like poaching, etc.). In the end they reached a plea bargain, but the guy ended up doing 4 years (I think). He never challenged the law but many legal people think he would've won if he did. It's kind of complicated (he killed the elk in Montana's little part of Yellowstone, so was not compelled to have a trial in Wyoming). From what I've read, legal eagles said that the judge/courts who denied his motion to dismiss were wrong, but the case was never tested in appeal. And that was for killing Bambi's brother. Imagine how much more pressure there would be in a homicide there. My guess is that they'd try the person in Wyoming and get a conviction, and they'd do time. Likely they'd appeal and it would be interesting to see how it would come out (technically it seems he should go free). But the public pressure to let the guy go would be enormous, so my guess is he'd do time first and then get released on appeal. Plus apparently Congress has had this brought up several times in the past but let it go. All that said, man Laundrie was so close to pulling that off (like what, maybe 10 miles to Idaho's Yellowstone?). What if he did kill her on that parcel? Now that would be an interesting trial. But probably don't matter, I think either he dead or in Mexico now.
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1. Today you prform sodomy. 2. Gomorrah you have to go to the doctor for a shot.
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