Jump to content

phdhorn

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    6434
  • Joined

Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. You make a valid point here, and it's one side of the conventional wisdom. But I think many people completely forget or ignore the indecencies done among the inhabitants. Pre-western societies in Africa and the Americas were constantly warring, taking prisoners, making slaves, having mass executions of entire tribes/groups, and in general killing the shit out of each other. Those were far from idyllic situations. It's just that the Western powers were more advanced technologically and could win out. I would think that if these people were "left alone", their respective continents would still be arenas of bloodbaths and constant war for territory and resources - as it had been for 7,000 years at least. The difference in colonization isn't morality, but ability.
  2. Cooler mornings is because pretty much for the first time since early June, dewpoints have been < 50% (that means the air is drier, cools down easier). 3-4 more days of hanging around the 3-digit mark, longest streak all summer of course. Then early next week temps drop 10° at least, and that's it for the 100's this year (maybe 1 outlier).
  3. And just last week, striking student tour guides successfully got the University to remove The Eyes lyrics from a plaque on the welcome center: https://thedailytexan.com/2021/08/31/texas-tour-guides-end-strike-after-eyes-of-texas-lyrics-removed-from-welcome/
  4. Well, this guy gets it at least. Yes, that's pretty much the main objective now of all university existence (half-joking, actually). This suit probably won't go anywhere, the Fifth Circuit is pretty conservative and would slap down any more regional Federal rulings. Although an injunction to temporarily stay the singing? Nah. However, I think The Eyes is eventually doomed. It's just a matter of time if/when the monies which don't want it > the monies that do. This suit doesn't surprise me in the least, and stuff like this will keep coming up. Eventually I think we'll have the same controversies (i.e. "I don't want to be on the field or sing etc.") return.
  5. Fixed. A coup in Africa/unstable, corrupt government = sun rising.
  6. No it's not going to be quick - never said it was. But rental car companies had already put in a ton of preorders earlier in the summer and have gotten their inventories up compared to back then. Demand will go down as the non-travel season ends now, so it'll be better. The chip shortage is forecast to subside by late this year/first month or so of 2020, and since that's again not the tourist season, it'll get better. Probably back to normal by next summer - if no other bullshit happens.
  7. Larry's still gonna be a fish storm - there's a front in the NE U.S. that'll keep it away. It might skirt the eastern end of Newfoundland though as a diminshed storm. The thing in the Yucatan originally was modeled to stay south, but models have changed. It might drift N/NE into - wait for it - E. Louisiana. However much of the modeling says that this one will be fairly week. Some wind shear and dry air in the Gulf now, so if it does ramp up, at this point not much > than TS level. Of course that's today. We'll see by Tues. or so.
  8. Rented at BWI in July. Hertz, the gold standard of rentals, had a 30-45 minute wait for cars. And this was for people who both reserved weeks ahead of time and/or were Gold members. I was lucky - my car was ready in "only" 30 minutes. I walked out into the garage and there were no cars anywhere. They drove mine up, freshly washed and vented, and I was off. It was clear that they were getting these things as they came in, rushed 'em to the wash area, and rushed 'em again to the customer. And they weren't giving a crapola about what "class" of car it was. Whatever came in, it's what you got (in my case I think I got a sedan). And the other car companies were much worse - a few were simply closed with "no cars available" signs, even for people who had reservations. Some people were waiting up to six hours after signing up for another company. Pretty much resembled the Kabul evacuation. This will change over the next few months, as demand goes down a bit (people staying home due to the covid wave) and replenishment of inventories. I don't really blame the companies - sure we can scream about a "better business plan" - but it's easy to say that and make it actually relevant. Just a bad situation.
  9. There is a pretty clear meteorological explanation as to why Ida was so severe in the Northeast, more than usual: 1) There was a plume of tropical moisture that extended off of the Gulf Coast, across Florida, and up the Eastern Seaboard. 2) A cold front was coming in from the NW (Ontario and Quebec), pretty common for them this time of year. 3) The Jet Stream dipped into the Mid-Atlantic following the frontal boundary. Each of these ingredients helped to "supercharge" Ida when it got near the Atlantic Coast... you didn't hear much about it the day or two before, lots of rain but nothing like when it got into Virginia. And actually these ingredients were very similar to what happened when Sandy went into the NYC area. As Ida moved across the Southeast, it was farther from water, so it wasn't pulling in a lot of moisture, so it remained kind of benign (except for heavy rain). But when it got to Virginia, it started pulling a lot of ocean air in, including the very saturated plume. So it essentially got a nitro boost of new fuel, rather than rain itself out. Then when it got into Maryland and NE from that, it hit both the frontal boundary and the Jet. This is exactly the scenario in Texas in the early spring when tornadoes and severe weather is at its peak. Both the Jet and the front really kicked the air upwards, rapidly cooling it and producing immense turbulence. So Ida behaved then more like a spring severe frontal storm found in mid-continent in the early spring. Normally short, weak EF-0 or EF-1 brief tornadoes, almost exclusively created in hurricanes from friction with the land producing horizontal spinning (which eventually goes vertical for reasons we still don't yet understand), became EF-2, 3 and even 4 wide-track tornadoes (the one going through the Annapolis area was 600 yards wide - that's over 1/3 of a mile!), which traveled some 40 miles (in one incarnation or another) lasting well over a half hour. Same for the tornadoes in PA and NJ. Not typical of hurricane tornadoes, and of course fairly rare in that part of the country. Once Ida moved out of the frontal boundary and under the Jet, it diminished in its severity, but still was pulling in moisture at a huge rate. All of the turbulence combined with what was already tropical energy just caused a rain bomb going almost directly through the heart of Manhattan (and esp. across in NJ - esp. Newark). Up to 14" within 5-6 hours in some spots! That takes a lot of energy, and the tropical/Jet/frontal combo created the "perfect storm" scenario. Again, not all that different from Sandy except temperature (remember the front hitting Sandy was "frozen" with snow and sleet). Anyway, this was a result of a rare lining up of several factors that really transformed the storm from "tropical" to "continental" and it behaved as such. It can happen, and did in this case.
  10. None of those new ones is going near land, the thing in the Caribbean almost certainly won't form much, and if it does, will stay south. So a bit of a break on threatening storms.
  11. Triple bill. They play second. Opaque Wall opens.
  12. Bit of an update (cross-posted in Furnace thread): The expected "post-hurricane heat wave" effect from Ida really isn't gonna happen, or at least all that much. You'll notice today in ATX that, far from feeling hot and dry under sinking, heated air, we're more like this atypical summer - a bit humid with showers popping up all around. But wait - doesn't the west side of a hurricane draw dry air and heats it up? Yeah, but.. we have some asterisks here: - First, Ida was powerful but not all that big. It was fairly far away from us on its western edge (at least 30 miles into Louisiana). So its effect is a little less. - Second, we have the remnants of a Pacific storm (Nora) that's been raining itself out over SE Mexico. Even if it's not directly moving toward us, enough moisture and clouds from it are drifting our way to put a translucent blanket over us and keeping us a little cooler. Doesn't mean temps can't hit 100° (although they almost certainly won't today, maybe tomorrow). But rain chances are at least notable (20-30%) and a good portion of the area's gotten rain today. Highs today should peak out about 95°. Tomorrow would be the best chance for 100°, but I'm not sure it'll get there. Then temps go down to about mid-90's the rest of the week. Because summer 2021 gonna summer 2021. Enjoy the rain the next 2 days if you get lucky.
  13. Bit of an update (cross-posted in Rain thread): The expected "post-hurricane heat wave" effect from Ida really isn't gonna happen, or at least all that much. You'll notice today in ATX that, far from feeling hot and dry under sinking, heated air, we're more like this atypical summer - a bit humid with showers popping up all around. But wait - doesn't the west side of a hurricane draw dry air and heats it up? Yeah, but.. we have some asterisks here: - First, Ida was powerful but not all that big. It was fairly far away from us on its western edge (at least 30 miles into Louisiana). So its effect is a little less. - Second, we have the remnants of a Pacific storm (Nora) that's been raining itself out over SE Mexico. Even if it's not directly moving toward us, enough moisture and clouds from it are drifting our way to put a translucent blanket over us and keeping us a little cooler. Doesn't mean temps can't hit 100° (although they almost certainly won't today, maybe tomorrow). But rain chances are at least notable (20-30%) and a good portion of the area's gotten rain today. Highs today should peak out about 95°. Tomorrow would be the best chance for 100°, but I'm not sure it'll get there. Then temps go down to about mid-90's the rest of the week. Because summer 2021 gonna summer 2021. Enjoy the rain the next 2 days if you get lucky.
  14. IMG playing a fake school? Doesn't that make two fake schools playing each other? "I attended IMG for the academics." Said no one ever.
  15. Yup. A good portion of stuff will be in the Gulf by noon tomorrow.
  16. A reminder... here are the descriptions of a Cat 4 and Cat 5 from NHC: 4 (major) 130-156 mps Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. 5 (major) 157 mph or higher Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Things have a way of not being as bad as forecast in many cases, but in this case, if NOLA is in the narrow 20-mile path near or at the eye, unlike Katrina, where teh surge was bad but the winds not quite as devastating, this one could easily flatten (i.e. wipe out completely) entire subdivisions. Might be the worst storm to ever hit U.S. in terms of damage/destruction. Hope not of course.
  17. Wait, this is supposed to be a thread about how the CR sucks shit (which it does). Especially lately. So... the CR sucks shit.
  18. Again, very easily could destroy a good bit more structures than Katrina, mostly if the worst wind core goes over NOLA or esp. eastern suburbs. Which right now is kinda forecast.
  19. NHC latest: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/261456.shtml? Of note: Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.
  20. Yeah, forgot about that option. That's what they'll do I'm sure.
  21. I think both. People were expecting the Superdome to be ripped apart with Katrina, but it held... because the worst winds were 25 miles to the E. In this case, I think storm surge will be about the same, even worse, if these places are in the path longer... and the winds could be worse. Of course it takes a lot of stuff lining up just right to sustain a Cat 4 or even high 3, so the odds are it could weaken or otherwise not be as bad. I'm not saying it will be, I'm saying it has the potential to be worse than Katrina, up into the Camille range of devastation. Hope not.
  22. Yeah, I get you, but if they put him on the practice squad, they could keep him and it would be huge for him - otherwise a severely injured, unproven late-round rookie QB trying to get an NFL spot... ugh. I hope they keep him, they seem to really love the guy, so I think chances are good.
  23. I think they also added a few feet to the flood gates, which I believe are effective for storm surges up to 16 ft. But NOLA is a disaster of a place to build a city, it's got 1,000 things which normally say, "don't build here" (sunken ground, higher bodies of water almost 360° around, a river that has to be massively rigged to keep flowing (it wants to go down the Atchafalaya basin, not through NOLA), etc. So who knows what way they'll get overwhelmed from this? The projections for this storm's path are worse than Katrina. Katrina actually went up east of NOLA, sparing it of the worst of the winds especially. This one right now puts it in the #1 bowling pin path. I really, really hope it wobbles, because I think the damage will be worse if not.
  24. Unfortunately with this injury, I don't think he makes the 53 roster. I think Eason gets 2nd QB - the competition has been close, but Eason has looked better in sustaining drives - something the pros want. I think he makes the practice squad or whatever... because Wentz gets injured as often as Jameis Winston throws INTs. I could easily see him if.. no, when.. Wentz goes down again working back with Eason. I hope I'm wrong as hell, but that's how I see it.
×
×
  • Create New...