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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. If Ida goes up NOLA or even a bit east, Austin might not get all that much hotter Sun-Mon. With Rita of course we hit 109° but Rita went up closer to us (Sabine Pass area). That 250 miles makes a lot of difference as to how much dry air is being pulled up. My guess is that it won't get much hotter here. I know this is "yeah other than that how'd you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?" but since we live here... Ida is going to probably hit 3 or even 4 before weakening at the coast. Still gonna be a big, messy one.
  2. Actually it was a 4 at landfall. But it had weakened a good bit from just 6-8 hours earlier when it was hitting 175 mph sustained winds. Just for trivia's sake, Rita (about 2 weeks after Katrina) was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Gulf, sustained winds reaching 185 mph. That one weakened to a 3 when making landfall at Sabine Pass. Gulf storms do typically weaken a little right near the shore, unless they're barreling in at a good rate of speed, like Camille in 1969, which hit as a 5. (2nd most intensive storm to hit U.S. after 1935 Labor Day 'Cane).
  3. H, no h, whatever it takes. This thing is scary, doing the Katrina thing, same path, same possibility of ramping up. Oh, and here's one more thing... Ida's forecast to hit the Gulf coast in two days... August 29. Katrina: Hit NOLA August 29, 2005.
  4. No. There are remnants of a low that was actually part of Henri in the Atlantic off Georgia the tailed off and swept across Florida and has come West through the Gulf. It's not tropical in nature at all. We are way, way out of Ida's influence at this point and judging by the way it's going probably won't see a wiff of Ida in texas.
  5. Blinken yesterday said they honestly don't know where at least 1,000 of them are. Haven't been able to locate them: "He said officials have had a difficult time tracking down the other estimated 1,000 American citizens who might still be in the country." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/about-1-500-american-citizens-still-afghanistan-secretary-state-says-n1277647 He didn't specify where the other 500 are but most of them seem to be in or near Kabul.
  6. Jennifer Griffin from Fox now reporting that 10 US Marines have been killed. OMG.
  7. And it's beginning to trend all over the news that indeed this has caused the U.S to essentially begin shutting down there attempted evacuation of Americans right now. This is from Liz Sly of the Washington Post:
  8. The quote that "almost certainly Americans will be left behind" has been reported in numerous sources even from yesterday. The drawdown quote was from a U.S. intelligence source that's proven reliable the past 48 hours. As with this hellish, chaotic situation, things could change, but so far pretty much all reporting from there has proven out in one way or another. She also posted this denial from U.S. diplomatic sources: ... but apparently that was negated by the previous post of what her source told her. Since Canada has essentially begun their pullout, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect that the U.S. has. However, that doesn't mean it's not on schedule before these incidents. Listening to reporting about whether the bomb attacks have sped up withdrawal, people are speculating yes, but nothing official is reported on that.
  9. NYT reporting that as many as 250,000 Afghan friendlies and allies (not U.S. citizens) need to be evacuated: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/25/world/asia/afghanistan-evacuations-estimates.html&ved=2ahUKEwi50I_Njc_yAhVpnGoFHTvtCvMQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw3qB3ag0BsX3GSdYgo6Z8rQ
  10. Yep, confirming from what I posted this morning, it's now complete chaos and apparently the US has begun its final withdrawal: AAnd, as expected, the isis presence at the airport has grown exponentially:
  11. More news, less "commentary" pls - take it to one of the shitty CR threads.
  12. It's probably getting to the point where evacs are going to dwindle and essentially stop (except for getting the troops out). Obviously the danger level has ramped up significantly from the already high level it was. FWIW, Canada's pulling out for good today after evac-ing about 3,700 troops (from Reuters): Canadian forces halted their evacuations of around 3,700 Canadian and Afghan citizens on Thursday, saying they had stayed as long as they could before the deadline lapses. U.S. and allied troops also have to plan the logistics of their own withdrawal. "We wish we could have stayed longer and rescued everyone," the acting chief of Canada's defence staff, General Wayne Eyre, told reporters.
  13. Good chance wherever this goes, that it'll ramp up quickly near the shore (typically) and might be a major hurricane (3 or more?). I don't like the looks of this one.
  14. This is nice: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/woman-taliban-sex-slaves-dead-bodies Excerpt: A woman who fled the Taliban in Afghanistan reportedly said militants are searching for sex slaves and having sex with corpses. The woman was a police officer in Afghanistan before fleeing to India following the group's insurgence into Kabul, she said. “They rape dead bodies too," the woman told News 18, according to a report from India’s North-Eastern Chronicle. "They don’t care whether the person is dead or alive. … Can you imagine this?”
  15. Lots of concern now about an ISIS attack over the next 5 days at the airport (CNN): ----------------- "Concerns about security around Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul have increased based on “a very specific threat stream” from ISIS-K about planned attacks against crowds outside the airport, a US defense official has told CNN. The US believes ISIS-K, which is a sworn enemy of the Taliban, wants to create mayhem at the airport and has intelligence streams suggesting it is capable and planning to carry out multiple attacks, according to the official."
  16. Last day of the hots for awhile, and it's only been like 98°, so c'mon, it hasn't been that bad - at all. Anyway, high slides off to the E, another forms in the W, and we're in between. Temps will go down into the mid, then low 90's into the weekend. Depending on this tropical thing in the Antilles, temps could be 70's-80's early next week. But our history is that they go east of us and we're not and dry (near 100°). In either case, we will likely get out of August with three (maybe four if today hits 100°, best chance for the next week) 100°+ days the entire summer. Memorable to say the least.
  17. Of course models are almost useless until the thing actually closes up and forms, but most of 'em are now pushing E to a NOLA area landing. FWIW <roll dice>
  18. Just confirming my post from above: ... annnnddd this doesn't seem to be good, even if expected (no one with a brain knows that the logistics and numbers means that they would need more time to locate/evacuate all Amers.):
  19. Busted by grammar police. "There is less of a US troop presence than there was yesterday." (Note I didn't say "then")
  20. Jennifer Griffin @ Fox News reporting that U.S. officials have said that the U.S. military "final" drawdown over the next 6-7 days is already beginning; there are less troops in Afghanistan today than there were yesterday.
  21. Micro-peen Update: - Hot, sunny thru Wed. - Slim chances of rain beginning Thurs.; they could go up, but probably won't much. - However, the big high is once again moving west and at least temps will moderate back into mid-90's Thur-Sat if not longer. More if rain/temps change from this later in the week.
  22. I would agree. And they were so before the Soviets ("sides" that were, say staunchly pro-Western easily have flipped- and flipped back - for decades). Afghanis don't really think in terms of "country", they think in terms of "village" and "warlord alliance". The country is more aptly seen (by them) as a bunch of city-states than some national unity. Or at least that's how I've read it (Inka and Miller can chime in pro/con).
  23. Exactly they're not stupid. Why would they mind a little mess being stirred up by a group they don't have to worry about. Remember today number of isis are exaliban from the conflict of 2015. And finally, if this were not a threat or the Taliban we're going to tramp it down, wire the threats credible enough that four nations have had to markedly alter their plans in the last 24 hours to get people out? Part of it is possibly because of Taliban has an established full control yet. But make no mistake about it, ISI is a current threat there.
  24. Yes, but my point in the article is that al-Rahman, a hardliner, might be willing to look the other way even briefly while ISIS carries out attacks, which they've been doing anyway for years in Afghanistan, despite their opposition to the Taliban, and especially if they're not aimed at the Taliban,Which they wouldn't be. In the 2015 ISI Taliban war, many fighting on the isis side were excaliban who didn't like their warlord. So allegiances are not exactly clear. All bets are off in that hellhole right now.
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