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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. Yeah, generally you're right. However what's alarming about this is that, the Taliban "head of security" (yeah, right) in Kabul, it's an AQ Ally and has a long history of ties to them. From VOA: Seems to leave open a good possibility that the Taliban will let ISIS loose on Americans and others in Kabul.
  2. One of the main reasons Americans are trying to find alternate routes of escape besides the airport is that now ISIS is showing up there and is expected to carry out terrorist attacks soon: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/politics/kabul-airport-terror-warning/
  3. Well, we'll finally get about 4 or 5 days in a row where temps could easily get to 100 or above, but starting about Wednesday they're supposed to go back down into the mid-90s or even lower. That's been about normal this entire summer.
  4. Yes, CNN just reported apparently they're trying to plan "alternate routes" to try and figure out where to pool evacuees but right now nothing has been determined.
  5. I just read today that the U.S. has ~200,000 troops stationed in over 150 countries worldwide, many of which have been stationed in locations over 60 years. We're in a lot of places.
  6. most recent news stories (apparently quoting WH) have 15K at least: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/15-000-americans-remain-afghanistan-after-taliban-takeover-n1277033
  7. Naw, that plan was scrapped two days ago:| https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-drops-kabul-airport-plans-will-assist-if-taliban-ask-sources-2021-08-16/ .. and from the article you posted: "Turkish sources told Reuters this week that those original plans were dropped because of the chaos in Kabul, but that Turkey would still offer the Taliban security and technical assistance at the airport." Looks to me like Taliban said, "uh, no, you won't" and Turkey said "oh, okay." And providing security for the Taliban or acc. to their requests (says nothing about U.S./NATO) isn't quite what I had in mind for "airport security." But it's a unmitigated mess over there, so nothing surprises me.
  8. More than you'd think. China building a military ba... er, "airport" on the island as close as it can get to Taiwan: https://thefederalist.com/2021/08/18/china-plans-to-build-463-million-airport-on-closest-island-to-taiwan/
  9. I think another part of that is that the Taliban's march through Afghanistan has been so lightning-swift that they really haven't had time to pull back and set up their infrastructure. That's starting to happen now, they're beginning to allocate their members strategically. And when that happens I wonder if they'll put up more resistance against the U.S., even if it's just pot shot type stuff.
  10. Taliban getting more aggressive: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/taliban-block-routes-to-kabul-airport-hampering-evacuations-from-afghanistan-11629279556
  11. Pretty certain that Grace is going to hit land well south of the U.S. It ought to be interesting to watch it intensify as it crosses the Bay of Campeche. Probably a 2 when it hits land in Mexico.
  12. ... and when you have none other than your buddies over at the WaPo slamming you, you know you fucked up (well most of us would, anyway). From an editorial today: We had hoped that Mr. Biden would accept some responsibility and explain how he would fix this mess. He did none of that, making it clear that he himself is the main architect of this needless American surrender. It does not bode well for the rest of his Presidency. The world has seen a President portraying surrender as an act of political courage, and retreat as strategic wisdom. As we write this, the world’s rogues are looking for ways to give him a chance to deliver a similar speech about other parts of the world.
  13. When you are commander-in-chief, and especially when the conditions of your withdrawal (even set up by a previous admin) were violated by the opposing party, all bets are off. Since that "treaty" was rendered moot, the new CIC can scrap it or re-negotiate. We weren't "bound" by anything. And in that article, just like on TV, the narrative was that the window of how quickly the Taliban could take over went from 6 months to 3 months to weeks (days was the real answer). It's clear that Biden was going to do this come hell or high water to line up with his personally favorable symbolic date of 9/11, and he horribly miscalculated and made one of the worst presidential decisions I've ever witnessed in my six decades vertically on this planet. No one else was responsible for this last 1-2 weeks. Except for him. The thing is he doesn't give a shit about any of this. He's focused on the "time to get out" and has no regard whatsoever for the suffering he caused. He glossed over it in is "buck stops here but let me blame everyone else anyway) speech. He thinks he's "saved" us from future involvement over there. Well, he might be right. Or AQ will now ramp up to levels not seen in 20 years and we'll be fighting dozens of fortified terrorist attacks, including some over here, within a few years. My money's on the latter. I hope that never happens, of course, and I hope this goes away. But I doubt it.
  14. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/14/pentagon-biden-team-overrode-afghanistan-481556 I heard at least 3 congressmen (both parties)on TV last night who are in on the intelligence briefings/inner circle say the same thing. If it's not 100% guaranteed, it's certainly all around political circles that he did. Of course this will all have to be sorted out with time - rumors and bullshit are flying all over right now, but Politico isn't some hack rag. It certainly seems now like he both got shitty advice and ignored the good advice he didn't like.
  15. Lemme Update this a bit: Models have the bulk of this next rain event beginning late afternoon, mostly W and N of ATX - but as we saw a few days ago, if something ramps up in the day, it can be outside of this "target area". Chances are good it could for immediate area. It happened like that last week. Bulk of rain is for later today into tomorrow afternoon. If it rains today over you, chances are that it won't rain much tomorrow (stabilized atmosphere). If it doesn't, diurnal rain chances better tomorrow. My guess is that the rain will be pinpoint and not widespread. But in any event, lots of clouds and temps staying in low 90's. Stuff begins to move out Thursday, but temps stay below normal - mostly mid-90's. No 100's in sight for at least the next 5-6 days. That takes us into the last week of August. One day at a time...
  16. Great little story... pilots of one of the transports reported he couldn't get the gear up, had to land - and found taco sauce in the wheel well. Every day I have to blink again to try and return to reality from the past 72 hours.
  17. This is the gist of several of my posts yesterday (and a WP article). There are an estimated (very roughly, obviously) 5-10 K Americans somewhere in Kabul/Afghanistan. The only way I can see any of them successfully getting to the airport is for the Taliban to let them pass w/o any holdups. For a few days or a week they might. But at some point it's inevitable that the "newer, softer Taliban" is going to do what they want to do in their minds - adhere to Sharia Law again and start slamming the lid on anything resembling freedom. Do you see a Black Hawk Down scenario here? I do, or far worse if this thing gets too far out of 6-7 days - this isn't just a city with a buncha zombies running around with full autos and .50 cals on a few Toyotas - this is an entire country of millions of guys with weapons (and some heavy) that can converge on Kabul and cause death and destruction on an unparalled basis. Unless the Taliban just shrugs all of this off for a bit. Maybe they will. What do you think the encounters will be like if they start to happen?
  18. I think you're right in so far as at least the first few weeks. The Taliban really wants to project an image of tolerance and low-key transition (although we now know in many villages already taken anything but that has happened). I'm thinking down the road though that the Taliban may very easily take these people and scatter them all over the country making that impossible to retrieve for a conventional force. And now, since we have absolutely no intelligence on the ground or anywhere else there, we will never know where they would be. Taliban can use them for trade bait or ransom. If you're an American but especially an American friendly and you're not at the airport in Kabul right now, your life is a dice roll.
  19. That second example, the Post article, I posted a comment on earlier. This is what's particularly problematic. It's going to be hell to go into Afghanistan outside the airport and try to find these people. I don't see how it can be done without bloodshed.
  20. This is true of our 20-year history in Afghanistan of course. It is not true regarding this evacuation. This is on Biden's team and is his alone. And it's about the worst I've ever seen in my life.
  21. I also heard today on TV that there's a shitload, perhaps several thousand, Americans and Afghan friendlies who are stuck in Kabul and can't get to the airport. Taliban might let some of those foreign journalists through, but I would bet the Afghan friendlies won't get much farther than the local soccer stadium for this sunday's family entertainment. I've seen several sources now that say the Taliban are already executing people in Kabul who cooperated with the U.S.
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