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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. So far, they've been rightly and acutely critical of the administration on this evacuation, spearing little pointed criticism. Even if they revert to their typical dick sucking, Biden doesn't get out of this easily in the public and world status. This is a complete, utter, major catastrophic horrible screw-up on his part, one with terrible ramifications far outside of Afghanistan, and he's not going to wiggle out of this for at least the next year, unless by some miracle something happens to atone for it. Don't bet on it. Especially as it seems to be increasingly coming out that he ignored his military advisors and intelligence and did this for no other reason than apparently hubris or some absolutely stupid pie in the sky desire to line up 9/11. I cannot even fathom that someone could actually have that mindset.
  2. This is just peachy: The Russian foreign ministry has claimed the situation in Kabul “is stabilising” and that the militants have started to “restore public order”. Russia, whose ambassador is due to meet with the Taliban on Tuesday, said the militants had vowed to “guarantee the safety of local people”, despite thousands of Afghans trying to flee the group’s hardline version of Islam. Moscow confirmed it had “established working contacts with representatives of the new authorities”, AFP reports. The agency says: Unlike Western countries, which scrambled to get their diplomats out of the country as the Taliban completed its military takeover of the country this weekend, Russia has said its embassy in Kabul will stay open. Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov told Russian state media that the Taliban had already started to guard his embassy. Foreign ministry official Zamir Kabulov said on Monday that Russia would decide on recognising the new Taliban government based “on the conduct of the new authorities”. Russia will take part in an emergency UN security council meeting on Afghanistan due later Monday. The Kremlin has in recent years reached out to the Taliban and hosted its representatives in Moscow several times, most recently last month. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/16/afghanistan-taliban-kabul-evacuation-live-news-updates
  3. They can, and have, flipped games right up into game day. But I agree this won't probably be moved.
  4. They'll probably move it. If they don't, they're dumb.
  5. I think people who were too young to remember the peak of the "Islamic Terrorist Era" from about '93 to '05, or think it's an irrelevant part of history, are about to find out that it's going to ramp up again. This is far, far worse than Saigon because the PAVN/North Vietnamese govt. at least was more interested in getting the country unified and didn't kill off relatively that many people (sent them to "re-education camps") but these guys... right now they're all smiles and "oh gee, we're not like those guys 20 years ago, we're much more evolved!" Yeah, we'll see once they have laid down their cultural blanket for good. Lotsa women going to get raped, killed, and/or yanked away, trafficked and married off to Taliban big shots.
  6. To wit, found this quote interesting from Axios: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told senators on Sunday that a previous assessment of how soon terrorist groups will likely reconstitute in Afghanistan will speed up because of what’s happening there now, according to three sources on the phone call… Behind the scenes: On a Sunday phone call between top Biden officials and senators from both parties, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Milley whether, in light of recent events, they will revise an assessment to Congress in June of a “medium” risk of terrorist groups reconstituting in Afghanistan within two years. Milley responded “yes” — that he would have to assume that that timeline would get moved up, and that he would be happy to brief senators in a classified setting.
  7. Definitely, absolutely going to be an increase in terrorist incidents around the world within 2-3 years if not sooner. All ISIS needed was a patch somewhere within their 1/3 occupation of Syria in 2015 to train recruits to mastermind and execute Charlie Hebdo and the Paris Concert (Eagles of Death Metal). These people need land to build their training camps, and now they've got more of it than anyone knows what to do with. And no one or nothing (like troops) to stop them. This is a nightmare beyond nightmares - an entire country that is welcome to every shitbag (and remember Pakistan is gleefully in participation with all of this).
  8. Well, last avg. day of 100° in Austin is about Oct. 3. (And it's not distance from the sun, we're usually actually closer in our sorta elliptical orbit to the sun in the winter - it's angle of the sunlight hitting the tilted 23° hemisphere, which is more acute of course in summer months. Of course that peaks June 21 but getting "back down" to the autumn equinox, N. Hemisphere builds up heat every day from June thru Sept and that's why it's much hotter in Aug. than May, although angle of light hitting earth is identical). As we know, September can drift along pretty hot - but we can also get "that" front that once and for all kicks out the hot weather from Austin. However that usually arrives 2nd or 3rd week of Oct. Obviously we're not out of hell yet - September can have the entire month of 100's (like 2018 - all but 2 days > 100°, but that was after a brutal late July and August. But the likelihood of having 100 degree days starts getting low esp. after mid-Sept - on average.
  9. Yup. Doesn't mean it won't get sorta warm today thru Thurs until whatever diurnal rains develop, develop. Look for best chances of rain as usual after sun gets going, meaning mid-late afternoon or early evening. Not everyone will get it next 4 days, but enough to count.
  10. Update: Things have worked out so the cooler/rain pattern will stay with us longer, about 48 hours. Actually rain chances go down a bit thru Tuesday and then pick back up esp. on Wed. Then go down a bit Thurs, but still there. Then the dry-out starts happening Friday. Another 5 days of < normal temps (low 90's) and no 100's. Un-freakin-believable.
  11. This was the most "un-forcefield" event since I've been posting on Shaggy/Surly. Central and West Austin have had 5"-6", a small "screw you forcefield" bullseye, by far the most in the region today. I've had about 1.75" here at the Cave.
  12. (Crossposted/edited from rain thread): Big day yesterday - after the past 3 weeks of daily normal (not actual, normal) highs of 99°, which is our hottest avg. temp of the year, yesterday's was "down" to 98°. Meaning we've begun our winter shift - temp norms will continue to go down now through about Feb. when they hit the low 60's. Yeah, "big day", not really, but we do have the seasonal cooling kicking in, however gradually. Of course as we know from 2 years ago, September can easily have daily highs > 100° all month (I think we had 29 100°+ days) but we had a pretty good boost from a fiery August - which is anything but what we have so far. So by the end of Aug. normal temp is about 95°, mid-Sept. 90°, end of Sept. 87° or so. Might not make a big difference yet, but at least psychologically we're "getting cooler" after peaking our normal temp for the year.
  13. Update: Look for rain to fall after lunch. Big complex coming in now from NW of us but honestly it's 60% it'll get here before evaporating. We could get that, but especially when the sun heats the frontal boundary that's around us, storms will pop up. Best chance today between lunch and dinner. This little cool front will be shorter lasting than the previous ones, but holy crap, it's mid-August and we get this? Who in god's name would ever, ever, ever complain even if a few drops? Highs low 90's today but even by tomorrow mid-90's. One more less decent chance for rain tomorrow, mainly afternoon, then start moving back to dry and warm. However, could get some rain from Grace but too early to know, and usually we don't do well with those long-track Atlantic storms lately. Best chance for us to top the 100° mark will probably happen starting next weekend. But with this summer, who knows what's around the corner? Finally, big day yesterday - after daily normal highs of 99°, our hottest avg. temps of the year, yesterday's was 98°. Meaning we've begun our winter shift - temp norms will continue to go down now through about Feb. when they hit the low 60's. Yeah, "big day", not really, but we do have the seasonal cooling kicking in, however gradually. Of course as we know from 2 years ago, September can easily have daily highs > 100° all month (I think we had 29 100°+ days) but we had a pretty good boost from a fiery August - which is anything but what we have so far. So today-tomorrow should be a good respite, if brief.
  14. Update: Going through the longest stretch of "expected" summer weather (i.e. hot and dry), but that's going to change as usual. If we'll hit 100°, it'll be today or tomorrow (yesterday was 99° which is the norm for this day). But the big high that's rolled over us, just like the rest of this summer, just doesn't park - it moves around a lot and it's moving west again by Wed. Very slowly though... highs each day will be slightly cooler, mid 90's to lower 90's by Fri-Sat. The reason we're not going past 100° is all the tons of moisture in the ground and to some degree the plants etc. which are all pumped full of water now and emit a good deal of O2 keeping ground temps down. Saturday the same scenario we've seen - high moves west, jet takes a dip, and fronts can actually come down into Texas. This looks to be the case on Sat. and Sunday where rain chances are decent. But the main thing is the temps - again low 90's if not high 80's - in the hottest stretch of the summer. More later if necessary.
  15. Fred doesn't look to have a lot of oomph wherever it goes. Lots of shear and other crap on the way. Right now not forecast to get above TS strength, but of course that could change and probably will. Maybe a 1 going into NE Florida late this week.
  16. I do 10 mg of Lisinopril a day. Yes at first it caused a slight dry cough for maybe 2 weeks. Then it went away, and once it does, it never comes back, and that pretty much seems to mean everyone.
  17. This year, we sent around 615 athletes to the olympics. Next was Japan with about 552. Every other team had at least a hundred less than that (about four countries in the 400s). China "only" has about 406. So for bang for the buck, they're probably the highest performing team metal wise. Ever since the breakup of the Soviet Union, e United States has sent a good deal more athletes to the games than any other country. Were the 800 lb gorilla so we're completely expected to win the most medals. It would be utter failure if we didn't. I don't think that's such an achievement. Medal counts in the '60s and '70s were awesome because of all the political ramifications of US versus the commies and all that, and the Soviets often sent more athletes than we did. People were glued to the metal counts every day. Now nobody really cares because the United States should win that competition by at least 20 medals or else they've underperformed. Because they have tons and tons of athletes who participate in almost every sport in the olympics. No other country has more participation in more sports than the U.S. Add to that that there are so many sports now compared to the 60s and 70s that if you can field enough athletes to do some of those outliers, you probably stand a good chance for a metal. We do that and it shows. We've had some great performances in some of the US athletes have been tremendous, but it's completely expected that we should always win the metal total.
  18. Well, wife and I are taking your place, end of October. Never been to SD but have been numerous times to LA and all that other shit in Cali.
  19. You heard me. Sober as an Amish whore.
  20. Just got slaughtered out here with 1.45" of rain in 15 minutes. Thanks for the last fill-up. Now the pumps shut off for at least a week and a half. Probably more.
  21. Yeah, we all gonna git rained on within 30 mins. Not super heavy but a steady patch coming through. Heavier stuff SE of that (down by El Campo/Bay City/Port Lavaca) but could easily see an embedded potent storm sweep by in this blob coming up. Enjoy this sucker, because the faucet goes off by tomorrow afternoon for at least 10 days it looks like.
  22. July temps in relation to normal. Amazing.
  23. Hmmm... looking for the rain thread, but only found "BlastFunace/Fires 2011" thread. So I'll put the update here. Rain chances will actually climb up this afternoon. A combo of lows in NE Mexico and one near Lubbock will get close enough to each other to work with whatever moisture heads our way from the Gulf today (which is a lot) and give us best chance of rain in 2 days. Nothing widespread or all day, more of a decent shower or storm for an hour or so. I'd say about 50/50 in this area. For almost 3 months now we've been touting this incredibly mild and generally pleasant summer, always with a leery eye down the calendar - after all, it is Austin and it is summer. So far the pattern has proven to be long-range (i.e. not just a week or so) and has eventually returned. But I think we're almost turning the corner after today and tomorrow to what's left of our more typical summer. Rain will dry up and temps will start knocking about in the high 90's (although remember, the normal high for the next 5-6 days is 99, so 100 is nothing at all. But there's still so much moisture in the ground that I think for temps to hit 100+ every day it'll take awhile. In June and July, we'd have a brief run of hot and dry, but this pattern always has come back. Now it looks like that might not happen. However, we're now so late in the season it'll be interesting to see just how much hot/dry can work through September once the ground dries out. Not sure if it will from here. Aug. forecasts from CPC have turned drier and warmer - previously they've been cooler and wetter. We could still have a return to the Summer of Heaven but I'm not sure it'll happen from here. So enjoy the next 2 days - looks like we're about to start whatever summer is left.
  24. Another useless fact: July 2021 was #11 all time on the amount of rain for the month, but #4 in the number of days with measurable rain (12).
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