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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. Hmmm... looking for the rain thread, but only found "BlastFunace/Fires 2011" thread. So I'll put the update here. Rain chances will actually climb up this afternoon. A combo of lows in NE Mexico and one near Lubbock will get close enough to each other to work with whatever moisture heads our way from the Gulf today (which is a lot) and give us best chance of rain in 2 days. Nothing widespread or all day, more of a decent shower or storm for an hour or so. I'd say about 50/50 in this area. For almost 3 months now we've been touting this incredibly mild and generally pleasant summer, always with a leery eye down the calendar - after all, it is Austin and it is summer. So far the pattern has proven to be long-range (i.e. not just a week or so) and has eventually returned. But I think we're almost turning the corner after today and tomorrow to what's left of our more typical summer. Rain will dry up and temps will start knocking about in the high 90's (although remember, the normal high for the next 5-6 days is 99, so 100 is nothing at all. But there's still so much moisture in the ground that I think for temps to hit 100+ every day it'll take awhile. In June and July, we'd have a brief run of hot and dry, but this pattern always has come back. Now it looks like that might not happen. However, we're now so late in the season it'll be interesting to see just how much hot/dry can work through September once the ground dries out. Not sure if it will from here. Aug. forecasts from CPC have turned drier and warmer - previously they've been cooler and wetter. We could still have a return to the Summer of Heaven but I'm not sure it'll happen from here. So enjoy the next 2 days - looks like we're about to start whatever summer is left.
  2. Another useless fact: July 2021 was #11 all time on the amount of rain for the month, but #4 in the number of days with measurable rain (12).
  3. If it rains today, it'll be more toward afternoon. Front has gone south and stopped, most of the stuff is down past Victoria and south. Front will slowly creep back toward us today - how far it creeps = how much and who. Best chances south and east of ATX. Tails off Wed, but another low is moving down on Thurs, good rain chances again during the day. Friday on dries out and heats up, but still not above normal (remember our normal temp at this time of year is 99° so 100-101 is no big deal. BTW we've had 3 days > 100, one in each of June, July, and August (Aug 1 was 101° @ Mabry, where it more or less is the official reading).
  4. Yesterday around 4:30 I was out doing some yard work. Wasn't particularly threatening looking. Wrapped up and went in to take a shower. About 4 mins. later I'm in the shower and suddenly a series of huge thunder blasts rumbles through the house. Finished my shower and thought it was just an electrical show typical of when a storm ramps up. Nuh-uh. It was pouring, torrents of rain. All in all about 25 minutes of a huge downpour. I had about 2.65" of rain in that little span. What happened was a line of storms running NE-SW popped up right over me, and most of the rain ended up happening south and east of Austin. But did it rain in Bee Cave? Hell yes, it did. A lot. Today more of the same - spotty showers - and here's the thing - temps will struggle to make 90° in most of the area. On August 2. Unbelievable. Week will see a slow drying out, less rain chance each day, by the weekend we'll be in the upper 90's again. But August ain't done yet, could easily be cool as it could be hot. What a summer.
  5. It really isn't supposed to rain around here today. Look for it to pick up late tonight. Monday will be the rainiest day, whatever that means. It'll rain in Bee Cave starting about 11:30 p.m. Until then, nothing expected, nothing lost.
  6. I think it's just a naturally cool air mass coming down. The big high dome is going to move w again next week precipitating conditions like in most of July - cool and moist air mass can sweep down to us thru Central U.S. as heat dome moves back out to Nev/Ca/Or. It also could be conducive to rain which might aid even more.
  7. Temps take a dip next day or two as a little disturbance moves E-W over us. Could rain thru Wed night but probably not. Then temps go up to 3 digits neighborhood closing in on the weekend. Then - miraculously - amazingly - a cold front is going to move in about Tuesday. An August 1st-2nd cold front in Austin??? Yes. Temps Tue-Wed will probably be in the 80's. Some rain, too. Again, a cold front at the turn of the month. Awesome.
  8. I don't get judo. By nature it should be kind of exciting or at least interesting. But all I've seen are two people hanging onto each other like some half-assed junior high wrestling match. They just grab at each other, almost always to no avail,and there's like no action whatsoever, and then like 5:30 into a 6 minute match, one indistinguishable, almost casual move awards a competitor a point and the gold medal? It's almost like the loser moved/sneezed wrong and 4 years of intense training down the drain. If the strategy is to wait for that one opportunity, it seems so anticlimactic as to be snooze-worthy. I wish they'd rescore it so you pile up points for throwdowns, grabs, twists, reverses, etc. But as it is it's the most boring thing I've seen so far - and I've seen a lot of boring thing.
  9. Thanks. She was an amazing gal - very outdoors, besides her career in public schools serving as a counselor for troubled kids, she also had a private practice that centered on them. She also was an experienced guide in the Virginia Appalachians, again doing summer programs to help disadvantaged kids (both economically and medically) experience the beauty of the outdoors. Her whole life was a service. Mom of 3, divorced for 10 years but in a great relationship the last 3. I will miss her very, very much.
  10. She was a wine drinker. Any kind really. (you can pretend your glass of whatever is wine). Have fun! (I'm out on the 5 a.m. flight, have to get up at 3 a.m. Ugh!)
  11. Heh, loves me some Ollie. You might be saying more of this:
  12. I should also say that last winter forecasters were predicting a good possibility of a La Nina here. And the numbers actually supported a weak one. But then starting in May, it was almost the opposite, kind of an El Nino summer, with rain and cooler temperatures. Officially they called an end to La Nina in May. I'm not sure it ever got going. And again it's forecast to come back this fall. So you have El Nino numbers producing La Nina conditions. Weather is hard.
  13. Maybe La Fat Vic Chiquita. Definitely not La Nina although that's forecast to come this fall and winter; that would be dry hot summer. More resembles El nino, but the ENSO numbers don't support it, they've been neutral all spring. I think it has more to do with the North Atlantic and Greenland Oscillations. Highs sitting up there tend to be weaker in the summer but this summer they're stronger. Blocks storms from moving through the United States and forces the Jet down more toward us. Also keeps the Subtropical Jet a little stronger which is always what you want for rain in Texas. But it's not any of those Spanish people.
  14. 👍 You know, she would like that. Her name was Anne. I'm doing a good bit of the music for her service. We met as high school juniors, and began to be very good friends, almost got romantic but stayed friends. Abdominal cancer. Has had a history but lived a normal life for 30 years since diagnosis. Aggressive lymphoma came on about October 2020. Chemo seemed to help, she seemed fine in March. By late June she was dead. Probably my closest friend so far to go. Beyond sad.
  15. Thx for the sentiments. 5th wettest July so far in Austin history (1851), only 9 days in. Of course the average total July rainfall is 0.62 in., So the faucet can shut off as easily as keep going. But I think this is a larger summer pattern, not just luck. We'll see. Next week will be the first really warmer and drier week since mid-June so we'll see what happens after that.
  16. Triggered. See what I did there? I guess the solution is to stop making those guns that get up and shoot people without any humans using them. Those things suck!
  17. Bit of an update since the forecast has changed pretty quickly. That low that was supposed to go west and die out (my post 2 above) not only kinda stood still, but as it did it strengthened by pulling up more moisture. It has pseudo-tropical characteristics but isn't and won't be a tropical system because it's over land - end of story, both technically and process-wise. Anyway, the thing is now suprising us and going north as well as west. The strong northerly winds around the east side of the high out in the western desert have diminished, and those kept pushing the low down from us. But now it's coming W/NW and we are going to be well within the range of its primary rain area overnight into tomorrow lunch. They've put up a flash flood warning for counties south of us (Hays, Comal, etc.) but I think they'll extend it to Travis. However, this is still an E/SE thing.. that is, the farther SE in the ATX area you are, the more likely to see good rain. I think the edge of this moves up to say around Lampasas around to like north of Georgetown, and west maybe to Blanco. This will track NW and then fizzle somewhere by maybe Sat. afternoon. So, forecast is: Tonight into Fri lunch - rain, some periods of brief heavy tropical downpours. Some spots around here could get 5-6 inches; most of us maybe 1-2. Friday lunch - overnight - slow tapering off of the system, but still could get scattered heavy brief rains. Sat-Sun - rain still in the picture, but more daytime heating. The low will move in an unfavorable, but still reachable, position for us. I have to go to a dear friend's funeral in D.C. from Sat-Mon so yer on yer own from there, but shouldn't be anything particularly eventful. July returns - but just a bit - next week. Drier, temps climb to mid-90's, a few days could get upper. However, our glorious summer pattern is supposed to return after that. <Altogether now>, "Thanks, cockblocking highs!"
  18. No one is alive under there by now. Not even close. Recovery mode.
  19. This is exactly what happened today. Don't expect much out of this today. Maybe tomorrow, depending on movement.
  20. Yeah the center moved over land, probably won't go back out. It tried, but I think it'll poop out. Still, should drop some serious rain on the SE and N. Mex. coasts. We'll be in that lovely border between "a lot" and "nothing, and you'll like it" with the steep gradients of tropical lows. Still, radar showing a big mess coming our way, the only question is will it dissipate on its northern edges before making it up here? Right now I'm thinking more scattered, less amounts for our area.
  21. Update: Low still sitting down in the Valley. Will go W and fizzle next 24-36. Today like yesterday, more sun than in past days, but w/daytime a very good chance of decent rain for portions of us. Dies out by dark. Next 3 days more sunny than rainy, but every day rain can happen during daytime heating. By Saturday rain is slim. Dry weekend, picks up a bit next week. Temps will be a little warmer than forecast earlier this week if sun has a few longer stretches, but still under or at normal. Nothing above mid-90's in the next 6 days (however I think that can easily be breached). In any event, the great run of lower temps continues, and now will run into mid-July. Please don't wake me up to the real summer.
  22. My bad. Sometimes I forget that what happens in Washington, New York, and Boston is the only relevant news in the United States. You're right. And now we'll throw in "78 million at risk" headlines. Becuase no one watches our shit anymore unless we go all Disaster Movie.
  23. Just saw this, son got engaged last night and we had a in-law dinner tonight. Elsa will hit the coast as the weakest hurricane possible, about 74 mph. It'll put down a lot of rain and some minor flooding but it's moving fast and will probably gradually weaken as a skirts the Atlantic coast. Out of the country by thursday. Hurricanes are never anything to slough off, but this one shouldn't be a relatively big deal.
  24. I wasn't going anywhere with it. Just saw an article and said wow, coincidence. The rest of your post seems to be some type of mild irritation that I mentioned the process of radiative warming. I've posted occasional explanations of weather, climate, and astronomical processes here for 12 years, in this thread. No doubt that sometimes people know it already - and sometimes, including this one - they don't. You seem to want me to make some point that doesn't need making. Other than that, it's what I do, and have done many years now, on this thread. BTW there is a relationship between the sun's distance from the earth and weather, just not that type. So the aphelion does have "anything to do" with weather.
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