I dunno, I was gonna post an update and my fucking computer threw up all over me.
Oh well, try again... Update:
First, Bee Cave got a nice direct hit 10 minutes ago. Tiny storm cell but went right over my house. Because it always... (etc.)
Bit of a break in the rain as the low that came in moved into N. Mex and fizzled. But we still have that cockblocking situation - big high in the Atlantic off the Carolina coast, and another couple up in the Pac NW. As a result, systems are being generally blocked across the country, but the low pressure over the central continent resulting from being between the 2 highs is keeping things ripe for weather over Texas.
The only reason why there isn't more widespread rain today is that there's nothing to trigger it over us, but there is a ton of moisture still being pulled up from the Gulf due to the cockblocking deal. And will continue to be. So the rain today here/there is mostly due to the sun/day heating and they're popcorning from the coast.
So, whatever rain we get today and Friday day will be due to that. However, the next players are lining up, again due to the sort of unusual stuck pattern we have - which is berry, berry good to us both temp. and precip. wise.
There is a mild cold front that would normally said by 800 miles north of us, but it's going to push down into TX. Today and tomorrow a bit of high pressure has tried/will try to establish itself and so the rain will be pretty scant the next day and a half. But, due to the cockblock, that high really won't get going here and it's going to be pulled west - yet again. So we'll yet again be on the east side of it, and continue to draw up a lot of Gulf moisture, enough for at least a better than avg. chance on an early summer's day here.
But when that high vacates tomorrow night, the front will swing down and stall somewhere in Texas. Again, you've heard this record before, but wherever it lands, just under it and to its immediate south, good rain chances are in order. This will be the established pattern for the weekend into Monday. So rain chances for the 4th have trended - UP - and are now into the 70% range. At this point I don't think it'll be a definite rainout of stuff, but it easily could be. More definite by late tomorrow or early Sat. as we see how all this mixes up. So for now: Thur-Fri.: generally pt. cloudy, temps get a little warmer, up near our norm (94°) or even near, but not over 100° Friday (for sure the warmest of the next 4-5 days, then things go back down). Still, I'll take it. Always a chance of daytime heating showers in this setup. Sat-Sun: front settles, provides a trigger, rainier days return, temps stay lower (+/- 90°). Yes, chances of widespread showers/TS's esp. afternoon. Outdoor plans on the 4th 50/50. I'll return with something more pinpoint by the weekend. Don't cancel, but be ready to. Mon: 92 ish, still good chance of rain, but making a slow walk to warmer and drier. Damn nice start to July, in my book. Yes, August and September loom like a 350-lb. blind date. But still...