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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. 86° - that's EIGHTY-SIX degrees at the compound! 1.25". And still raining hard 15 minutes later.
  2. OMG it's absolutely pissing! We're about to hit an inch in only 10 minutes. I feel like Lot (with 2 hot daughters apparently) just before Sodom was axed.
  3. Man, it is trying HARD to pour here in Bee Cave, where it always rains. I can see the squall line up high almost on me, but it ain't quite here yet. And you never know if/when these heat storms will suddenly poop out. Don't fails me now!
  4. I'm putting this in here as a heads up; my DIL's dad is a big cheese at LCRA, and he sent this to me.. the supply/demand issues have been in the paper the past few days, but I find it interesting that he's sending this to me today... not sure he would if this one wasn't more of a possibility. Since this is Daily Texan, I'm simply posting this as a heads up... and that's the only reason. Make of it what you will. ERCOT is showing demand exceeding available generation today from about 1pm to 7pm so they will cut load under contract first and then roll blackouts as required. Wind is forecasted to be next to nothing at this time which is the problem. If wind picks up it will be ok, but don’t be too surprised if areas lose power today. Fuel up that generator [phd]! (I just got a new 15KW unit (and a lot of electrical work done so the house can hook up to it) so that's what he's addressing).
  5. Among other things, Jones left the planet a damn fine head of hair. RIP to great niche actor.
  6. The best way is to come clean and use whatever address you consider your true domicile - where you live, family lives, essentially live your life. You can get by for a short time if you don't put your new address as your legal one (domicile). But eventually tax and court matters will be a problem, especially if a violation of some kind. Your address is where to most easily find you the majority of time. If you're figuring temporary, you can talk to a lawyer about processing it. If it's indefinite or long-term, change it.
  7. Going on our Danube bike/boat trip in 1 1/2 months. FWIW. Yeah I know it's "touristy" but it's a long-planned family trip and we'll be just fine. I'll chime in here later if I need/want to. Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary. I'm Hungarian and Baltic in descent, and actually know some Hungarian (dad couldn't speak English until he was well in elementary school). Been there/done that for most of the places we're going, but family hasn't. Should be fun. Let me know if the river sucks (levels, blockages, etc.). Rome aftertrip but another thread, plus I got that covered, boy do I.
  8. Well, he's okay, but he's no Jorge Santana: (RIP Jorge, d. 2020)
  9. Those sticks are definitely optional.
  10. Well, whatever you like, if you're talkin' rock'n'roll, you must include something by the two individuals who more than anyone anywhere anytime influenced the R&R guitar sound - "guitar driven?" Shit, ain't nuthin' top these two: T-Bone: And the other one you know but ten thousand kids took up guitar after hearing this barrage in 1958 - there is no single riff, period, which more influenced rock and roll forever - ALL of 'em here and anyone you can name were influenced by this song, ain't no exceptions:
  11. Flew down here to just make sure there was no hurricane in Cancun. Nope, no hurricane so far.
  12. Atlanta Fed about to hit with not good report, 2nd quarter contraction (-1%) = recession. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=2c1a736e3628 The "good news" is that it's likely been in recession (well furking duh!) for the past 1/2 year. So it might ease up soon. I'll let e'rrybody here sort it out later.
  13. ... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.
  14. Core inflation continued to inch down in May - 4.9% to 4.7%. Not wonderful, but a lot better than going up. So, May core down a bit, CPI up. Kinda a wash.
  15. It was so bad I had to finance my Pet Rock.
  16. Worst 1/2 year since Marcus Welby, M.D. was treating patients in Santa Monica, and Geraldine was all the rage. (Don't remember these? Yeah, that's how long it's been). https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html Yay!
  17. Yeah, I don't think anyone here is set on an Austin big rain event, and you're right... the huge majority of these early-season Gulf-forming storms almost always go NE there are sound reasons for that, too, nagonnatellemherenow. The only reason why this one could is that the frontal boundary that's now more or less burnt out NW of the storm might still have enough juice to draw it in and interact. But this storm was originally forecast to be a coast-hugger, so nothing is that out of whack with the models. If it gets enough mass it could bully its way NW ward as well, but dunno. Since the front broke up the high ridge which would normally chew this thing up and spit it out, and the high isn't re-settled yet, there's a tinker's chance. But right now it's pretty much a coin toss.
  18. Looks like I'm luckin' out. PTC 1 (down over Guyana or somewhere) is sputtering, but more importantly, staying way south. Shouldn't impact Cancun over the weekend at all, though it's certainly going to strengthen quickly once clearing the continent (SA). PTC 2 is likely heading more NW-ward, and could potentially be a Cancun storm - but it won't arrive until mid next-week at the Mexican coast, if it gets there at all. Plenty of time for me to get in/out by Monday evening. As for you, I wouldn't think you'd have any problems. The storm is bringing a little rain and wind to Houston today, but flying over the main part of it is no big deal (flying over hurricanes isn't turbulent, usually - it's flying into them that's a riot). I wouldn't think you'll be buffeted too much except for a little bumpy ride down through the outer edge of it - and it's still pretty comparatively weak.
  19. Today it looks a bit stronger... NE convection isn't bubbling as much, is steadier.A little wrap on NW quadrant, and SE has at least a bubble-up. SW will lag, especially if storm gets close to land and pulls in only dry air. Center (red dot/white edge) today has drifted SW from yesterday as expected. Still has a fighting chance of developing into a TS, it ain't over yet. White specks are lightning strikes BTW. My little semi-eduated guess is that if it continues more of a W-SW drift it'll go up on the "right" side of Austin, that is over or west of ATX. If it starts heading north today, ATX might get nothin' or close to it. Right now leaning ever so slightly to a path over or W of ATX.
  20. I don't to much to concerts anymore (being an olds and having seen most of the people I've wanted to see in their prime, plus no one's worth $100/ticket unless they do healings onstage between sets). Any-hoo, wifey bought me b-day tix in March to see Don McLean. It was kind of a "gee whiz, 50 years since American Pie" kind of whim - I'm not a McLean fan per se though I've casually liked his songs. Anyway he was at the Paramount Sunday night, and I've gotta say that although he's getting up there and his voice is nowhere near it was (he's 76), he put on a pretty good, basic show. Sound wasn't too hot but the musicians were great and the guy can flat our sing/perform. I've come to realize how amazingly terrific his voice was in his prime - some big rock guy, maybe it was Dylan, called him "one of the best pure voices in rock" and I can see it. How effortlessly he cruses through all quick slides, jumps and wide ranges in his prime. All in all a pretty damn good show and the guy can flat out play and sing. And I gotta say, I was much, much more thrilled than I expected to see this guy, who might have 6-7 good years left, the source of one of the best singles of all time, belt it out in person. Very neat. Singing Vincent: And, the final song before the encore (which was 2 songs), "American Pie" of course - the place exploded...
  21. Not easy to find the center, but it's about here (red dot): Looks like it even took a jog east on the latest loop. Yeah, it's still a mess, the stationary front NW of it could be playing with it a little. Watch for the SW wrap to see if it's getting organized.
  22. KXAN update: https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/first-warning-tropical-low-could-bring-heavy-rain-to-central-texas/ (excerpts, bolded mine)... sub-tropical storms can still pack a lot of rain. Still 50/50 coastal vs. inland rain: There still remains uncertainty as to where this tropical low will come ashore, but there is increasing confidence that this disturbance will stay sub-tropical storm strength as it runs out of ocean real estate before getting pushed over land. The National Hurricane Center has a 30% probability of further organization within two days. The European (ECMWF) model shows a more easterly track with the heaviest rain favoring east Texas, leaving Central Texas with minimal rainfall accumulation. The American (GFS) model shows a more southerly, disorganized track that would leave our southern counties favored for ~1″ of rain, and lesser amount elsewhere.
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