Update:
- Models moved everything east. Low developed off of SE TX coast, and the big low is moving that way and will hang out for a few days as a cutoff. ATX will be either just under its N/S axis or to its west. If so, some rain but not a lot. Anyone to the SE/E/NE of it will get a ton of rain and bad weather.
- Atmosphere is still pretty charged, and with the low throwing in even more copious amounts of warm moist air, the recipe is still very ripe for lots of rain and bad weather. What's saving us though is that there's nothing to trigger it.... but S and E of us, from just east of the 35 corridor to the coast and up into NE Texas, today could be another rain day. Watch for heavy and severe storms to develop to our SE and move NE ward - generally away from us. However certainly a complex could form a little more north and head at/over us. So we're not out of the soup entirely.
- NWS might pull flash flood watch from our area and western counties, probably keep it SE of our immediate ones.
So forecast is today, cloudy, muggy, passing showers, always the chance of a severe storm ramping up, most probably diurnal (daytime heat-driven) along the usual suspects - late afternoon/early evening. Then a break. Tonight and most of tomorrow, little rain as this low is too far SE of us to do much. Friday a low comes in from the west and provides another trigger for the big one by then SE of us. Good chance of moderate-heavy rain for Fri-Sat, but at this point severe risk is low, and rain totals should still be managable (1-3 inches thru Sat). Of course at any point a strong storm pouring tons of rain could drop over you (4-5 in.) but that's going to be very scattered and not as likely. All starts to move out Sat. night, Sun and onward more sun, it'll be over.
So; Today: good chance of an inch or two, very scattered severe; Thurs - drier but cloudy, spotty rain; Fri - rain picks up later in day, carries over into most of Saturday, then Sunday begins dryout as lows move off.