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Everything posted by phdhorn
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
phdhorn replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
The Big $5 wall has been breached (as if there was any mystery left in it: https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/11/business/gas-prices-five-dollars-national-june/index.html 3 months ago they were talking "wow, gas might actually reach $5/gallon, remote as it seems" as if it was a slim but possible thing. Now, they're saying the same thing about $6/gal. gas, almost unthinkable 3 months ago. Now it's thinkable. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
phdhorn replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Those sturgeon were Russian Nationals but became US citizens because they wanted to see Montana. Yellowstone River holla! -
You might know this living up there, but when the Vietnam Memorial was unveiled, it produced a fierce backlash. Critics very much liked it, but the biggest opponents were, by and large - Vietnam vets. I was living there at the time and I heard quite a few Nam vets (through my brother, who served then, although not in Nam, had a bunch of friends who did) sort of bringing up your exact points on contrast. Whereas the other memorials were glistening, white, dazzling, and statuesque, the "ditch of shame" as it was first referred to was a black, dark, below-ground-level of embarrassment and grudging acknowledgement (as they saw it). Fresh from the "baby killer" wounds, they felt that it almost projected shame and blame to a lot of these vets - clearly to many of them it was as if the country was trying to "hide" Vietnam below ground, tucked away from easy spotting. From most vantage points around it, you wouldn't even know it was there. There was a huge push to dump it or re-do it. And again Vietnam vets groups were among the most aggressive. What no one (or very few) perhaps realized is that in time, it would become a "shrine" and have more emotional pulling power than almost any other memorial. And again, the leading participants were Nam vets. By word of mouth, vets would return from it and tell their buddies how a flood of emotions, many of which bore shame and self-loathing of what they perceived as society's scorn, would be released there, as they could "touch" their dead buddies'/family member's legacy by seeing and feeling their names (and eventually rubbing it onto paper). The therapeutic effect caught them off guard, and I would go down there and see 50 vets just sobbing, being held in loved ones' arms, etc. Especially raw right after the war, it was so emotionally powerful there was nothing like it. Still, the vets' demands were met, and the statues were erected. I believe they do what the vets wanted - add a real physical element, a time capsule, to the experience. The wary, nervous looks of the soldiers with the statues placed well into the shade of trees, almost resembling the jungle - was well-appreciated by the vets, and all suits and other grudges evaporated. Of course much time has elapsed since most of those guys were in their 20's to 50's, and now the average vet is well over 70. I'm sure with so much time passing the events aren't as raw, but for Nam vets it has absolutely become a cleansing station, unlike any other monument I know of in the world (sort of American Cemetery in Normandy for WWII vets). And in time the "ditch of shame" as evolved into a stunning, powerful "church" as it were of the Vietnam experience. Yeah, there's a reason why you feel like it's a church and it's far more evocative than most things there. But when you see those 3 guys that were "added', don't scoff at them or fail to understand that even if they don't seem to "go with" the wall, they represent a powerful desire of those old Vietnam vets to be portrayed in a sort of "glory" as with many war memorials. That statue complex does serve a purpose - and is truly a homage to the guys who weren't killed and had to come back to idiotic and shitheaded contempt. And trust me, many of them did.
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
phdhorn replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
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Answering Bates' clarion call (appreciate the inferential compliment). A few quick reactions: Agreed. The D.C. region = L.A./ San Diego for the sheer amount of stuff you can do within a 4 hour (~200 mile) radius. There's no place like it IMO. So why ain't I still there? Long story, but Austin is kinda like mini-D.C. except if you travel 3 hours in any direction, with the exception of the Gulf (which is hit/miss) you've gone nowhere. Just lots of Texas. See above. I did up to a point. But there's too much "northeastern" to it as in snooty people and grade-A assholes. I got tired of egomaniacs. Texas still to me has the greatest people on earth. No, really, I'm not drunk. Of course I'm not including College Station, what do I look like? Also keep in mind that the "political" shit only involves about 1/2 a million people, and most of them transitory. While D.C. will of course always have a political bent, you can grow up there and not think/give 2 shits about politics or people in them. There's damn near 10 million people in the Balt-Wash corridor, and the HUGE majority of them are residents who have their own lives and stories having nothing to do with politics. It's possible to ignore the bullshit in D.C. even 12 miles from the Capitol (which is where I grew up). Tourists will never get this as they're in/out too quickly to really soak up the best of D.C. (mountains/hills west, and my favorite, the tidewater/bay regions). D.C. can be galaxies from politics without much effort. - I strongly agree with all of this, esp. the comments on the weather. You have not experienced humidity like D.C. say after July 1. Of course it can be 86° and brisk - 0r 95° and awful. He's spot on. You won't be used to it. So: - Bate's 2nd point is also good, and I have 2 recs here: 1) do monuments at night. Just do it. Don't question it. FAR more enjoyable. FAR more. No people, no sweat-sauna. Do it. 2) Bate's "walkable" is very true. And if I were touristing, I'd do it one way only - by geography. To me there are about 6 areas in D.C. a) Capitol/Judiciary area; b) Central Mall (museums esp.); c) "old downtown" (essentially Chinatown and about a 10X10 block area including Ford's, Portrait, FBI, etc.); d) "New" Downtown with all the best eateries and shops (area near GWU/17th and L or so); e) Western Mall (Monument, Lincoln, Vietnam, WWII, Korean, FDR, Jefferson, etc.). If you plan out your time by geography, it's much easier than worrying about transp and long, long, long unjustified walks. Metro is great for all of these areas except Western Mall - where it really doesn't stop as conveniently to Lincoln, Vietnam, etc. But there's a stop near Smithsonian Castle, better than nothing. I'd approach it this way with each letter above 1 day, except Central Mall which would need 2 due to the fairly long time you can spend in the 5-6 museums there (Archives, too). Get to Archives VERY EARLY as lines WILL form and it'll be hot. If you're in a line, for god's sake take an umbrella or something to ward off the sun. Other than that, I always recommend the Bureau of Engraving to people (where they print the dollar bills). Unlike mints, the only place in the country where they do this, and it's fascinating. It's down just south of the Mall, Monument end near 14th and Independence (forget the exact streets, look it up). Kids love it too. Definitely worth the hour or so in there. As far as eats, etc. I'll leave it to the more current residents to give props to whatever. I was just up in March and we did well in Dupont (some good ethnic). Adams-Morgan always has great international food, and a Metro stop right there to boot. But can't recommend any specifics. If you go to Cathedral, you might consider a stop near there for a meal. Otherwise, foodies know more than I do now about the city proper. Definitely agree with the bold here. It's probably a nice museum, but man, that's a long, slow slog just to see a few planes. If Air and Space is down or something, maybe. Yeah the terminal at Dulles is pretty famous and a good see, but not on the A, B, or C list if you've never been to D.C. waste of opportunity to see other stuff. However, if it floats your boat... (I'm not as anti-Dulles as Bates, I like the flow thru it, but agree it's a long haul. I know they've been eternally working on the Metro line to get out there, and for eons have been trying to get the Reston area open - way behind schedule. Once that part opens I'd recommend it more I guess, because you won't have to get off the Metro and take a bus to Dulles. I think it's supposed to open this summer, right? Hah, we'll see. Mt. Vernon is nice and I love it, but don't expect it to be anything but swamped. It's a bit of a drive down to there, but worth it. Agree that Alexandria is nice but kind of out of the way and is kinda sorta like Georgetown, which isn't. Beyond that, you start getting into "been there, done that" lower-level sites that are very, very cool out of the beaten path stuff. But I would never recommend doing those before you've seen all the "stuff" everyone expects to. That's why you go there. Lots more to do, but most here have hit the essentials pretty well.
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
phdhorn replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
More not good (Heather Long WaPo columnist, their main U.S. economics correspondent: -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
phdhorn replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
OUCH. 8.6% YOY CPI (expected about 8.2-3%). Largest increase since 1981. Yeah, May wasn't gonna be a good month. No way, no how. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
phdhorn replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
I said back here somewhere, and I think, that May's numbers are going to be bad. Not record bad, but trend bad (again). Mostly because gas shot up after the little April fart (er, breather) and has begun to screw everything (truck transpo (diesel fuel), supply chains, etc. And, as stagflation guys have been saying, eventually the spending will go down, eventually the demand decline in goods = less revenue and job loss. So, last week's job #'s are out, and it's the biggest weekly decline since January (and the latest jobs surge): chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf (+229K, plus the last few weeks' reports were revised up a bit). This isn't necessarily the beginning of the jobs decline spiral - I think it'll take through the summer to really see actual losses if trends continue - and this could be just a small burp in otherwise great job news for 2022 so far. But, keep an eye on this as it could just as easily accelerate if the stagflation double whammy really begins to take its toll. Which it absolutely will if gas stays high for > one more month. If gas comes down, this indicator could reverse. I think we're about to enter the Mines of Mordor. Hope not. -
I see this as a bit of tough luck for you, but the 2 huge issues for any homes are 1) mold, and 2) termites - in my book, when you're selling (or buying) any house, these two things must be looked for, period. No one should neglect the Big 2, even if they've seen no evidence. Those are deal killers the most. But anyway, now you have that identified and can fix and list it as such (if needed). Usually when a buyer hires an inspector (perfectly legit) the idea is that you either trade $ value or pay for remedy as the seller (tacked on to the contract). It wasn't bogus of these pseudo-buyers to hire an inspector after preliminary deal. It was bogus of them to try to price the house beyond what the value of the repair might be (and indeed, the appropriate repair itself). I don't know if ripping out half the beams is the solution, but if it's recommended, unfortunately you have to do it - or discount the house price to accommodate it. But the good news is now you have that bit of info and the next buyers can't blindside you with that. One other remedy you have is to hire your own inspector. They'll work for you. So if the buyer's guy recommends reconstructing half the house for something, but your guys says only a few nails are needed, you have negotiating power (i.e. you've got your own pro). On old houses I would recommend this more. If you think the termites are the biggest "ghost" now revealed, you might feel good it's all been found out. If not, hire a guy and they'll help a lot when a buyer tries to lowball you. In this market, even with your old house, I'd think you have some clout over this stuff and can demand a good/fair price.
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Man, you're not looking on the bright side. Now you know the microwave works like a charm!
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Wow, rare forcefield in usually-tropical-drenched Bee Cave... most of this went north/south of us. Only getting wafer-thin mint of rain on streets/grass:
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3,400 Year-Old Mittani Empire City Ruins Resurface in Drought
phdhorn replied to phdhorn's topic in Daily Texan
Functionally an incapable idiot, thanks for asking, but able to give a better synopsis of the Bible than you, obviously. At least I got that going for me. But I do believe in the Bible. I can buy one at any bookstore. Hell, I can even find one still in some hotel nightstand drawers. Yes I've actually seen and even held real Bibles! They exist and I'm a believer in their existence! -
3,400 Year-Old Mittani Empire City Ruins Resurface in Drought
phdhorn replied to phdhorn's topic in Daily Texan
Lol Mittites vs. Hittites sounds kinda -
This is Kemune in Northern Iraq, just NW of Mosul. The lake created by the Mosul Dam on the Tigris has receded due to drought, and archaeologists found this amazing discovery. A part of it was actually first discovered in 2019 but they only had a faint idea that this much of the ancient city was preserved. Dating all the way back to the late Sumerian era. This is likely from the Mittani Empire, a largely-forgotten (mostly due to lack of evidence) but powerful force in 1.500 B.C. Sumeria. A palace is likely the core of the ruins, with enormous storehouses, that suggested that this culture did frequent trade with Egypt and other pre-Assyrian powers. Where I dig this especially is that the Mittanis were most likely a Hurrian-speaking people, which is Biblically significant. The Hivites and Horites of Genesis 14 were Hurrian speakers, and the Hivites were one of the seven nations which Joshua had conquered during his Canaan campaign (Deut. 7). But maybe most significantly, when Abraham's family (father Terah) left Ur, they settled in Haran (Gen. 11). Haran was a majority Hurrian-speaking city and likely either Mittani or in close contact with them. And in fact, many of the "weird" practices we find in most of Genesis concerning Abraham and the culture (app. Ch. 15-31) were not specific to the Hebrew culture, but rather freely exchanged as a part of Mittite culture. (one of my "big things" in history is to study how esp. in the Old Testament, what we determine as "weird" or "bizarre" customs or incidents in the accounts of the Israelites, were actually quite common and understood as long-forgotten customs in contemporary cultures that they picked up, and anything but "bizarre" to those peoples... e.g. Sarah giving her slave Hagar to Abraham, and his reluctance to send them (Hagar and Ishmael) out once Sarah was pregnant with Isaac, was very much based on Nuzi law regarding barrenness and the substitute procedure. We tend to think of Israelites as living in "their own" culture, and while that's certainly true in part, it's absolutely not the entire truth. Joseph flourished in Egyptian culture, and Abraham had to come from some earthly culture, so it's pretty likely that he adopted a lot of his habits from these Mittite customs and laws). Anyway it's not out of the realm of possibility to think that this city, although dating slightly before Abraham's traditional dates, was likely in existence in some form and that Abraham would almost certainly have known about it, if not visited it.) https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/after-drought-3-400-year-old-city-in-iraq-resurfaces
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Man, it's trying, but I don't think it's gonna make it - or at least very little of it.
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Race against time/evaporation. Big nice line of solid rain heading this way - but weakening ever so slightly. Made it so far from the Panhandle. Will it hold together? Man, I don't know, it's trying though. I hope so, because this is it before the Deep Heat Blast coming up for the next week.
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Bee Cave had a solid .001 this morning. Rescue crews/choppers out now as I write.
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John Hinckley Jr. Receiving Unconditional Release on June 15
phdhorn replied to atomheartbevo's topic in Daily Texan
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Decent (but not that decent) chance of rain this afternoon and then possibly tomorrow morning. After that:
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Best intro in Disco, this has to be top 3, plus it's a damn good arrangement, yeah although it's disco:
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Parasailing death seems like a horrible way to die.
phdhorn replied to crash_davis's topic in Daily Texan
Not to mention once you hit the water (if you don't squash yourself), if it's moving fast enough, the water pressure makes it extremely difficult to maneuver your arms or hands to unfasten this or unhitch that, or whanot. You're basically a rag doll being pulled inside of a bunch of jello pudding. But not as nice smelling. -
Parasailing death seems like a horrible way to die.
phdhorn replied to crash_davis's topic in Daily Texan
I was on a parasail being towed by boat. Winds died suddenly and I dropped like a roast beef turd. I got dragged for about 15 sec. under, then above, then under the water. Easily could have drowned. Fortunately wind picked me back up. So... been there, done that. Don't need to go again. -
Your avatar is perfect for this topic.
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Apparently the Washington Post or Daily Mail has no culpability. Would there be a separate trial for them? After all they chose to run what turns out to be a malicious opinion with intent to damage.
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