If he makes a series of Sweet 16s he's never getting fired. If he doesn't, he will at some point. People can predict whatever they want about his career trajectory at Texas. For example, I don't think he's going to make it long term. But I'd love to be proven wrong, and the way to prove me wrong is to have some level of consistent NCAA tournament success.
To me he gets some credit for that team making it to the Elite Eight, even if Chris Beard was the architect for the program. That was some crazy stuff that went down. Things could have easily gone sideways. They didn't, and it was a blast to follow. I'm not able to be completely dismissive of him because of that. I'm also not watching what he's done this year and thinking I've misjudged him as a coach. I have no idea what team is going to show up from game to game. If that ends up being a formula to make it to the second weekend of the tournament, he has a lifetime position.
I also don't mean if he falls short of the 2nd weekend one time he will be canned. I'm just saying if he can't make it there again after his first season over the next few years, I don't see him being extended. To me that's pretty much the bottom line. Things can be accelerated if he fails to make the tournament, but the victory over Texas Tech has me hopeful in a way I wasn't prior to that.