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SL Xpress

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Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. The prisoner swap I really want to see in the near future is the Kursk Nuclear power plant for Zaporizhzhia.
  2. I think there's a lot of incompetence involved as well. The Russians consistently demonstrate ossified organizational thinking, which is systemic given the priority of the ruling class to make sure the military can't usurp their power. When you're in an organization that prioritizes following the rules and protocol above all else, shifting priorities due to changing circumstances is a terrible weakness. I'm sure most if not all of us have experienced that within our lifetimes. We don't have to move to Russia. But this is organizational handicaps writ in full. BTW, being in an organization that doesn't do a good job of following rules and protocol has its own problems. If the Russian military is tasked with taking a specific objective, then the organization bends its organizational structure towards that objective. Supply lines shift resources there without thought about the needs of other areas or how they should be prioritized within the context of the objective. The objective becomes all. The future of the organization is not considered. So trainers are sent to the front lines. All available material is sent, regardless of the ability to replace or repair it. No one is making healthy organizational decisions, because the only good organizational decision is to make sure you're not blamed when things go awry. Which also means leadership is promoted and incentivized on the basis of a) not being a threat to superiors, b) the ability to follow orders and parrot the party line, and c) the ability to find scapegoats when things go wrong. Russia is not alone in featuring these dynamics. It's a very human quality. But their whole culture is built around it. I have not understood the military experts who have been perplexed about this operation, nor all the people writing articles featuring this perspective. To me it's seemed brilliant. To quote brilliant military strategist Willie Keeler, "hit the ball where they ain't." Make them shift priorities, resources, and objectives, because for them it's like turning around an aircraft carrier. Not to mention the insane political wins this is creating. Where else in this conflict could this many men and material have had this kind of impact on the conflict? It has seemed like a well run and well thought out operation. This has been much better than what transpired on the left bank of Dnipro trying to create a bridgehead there. Probably in part because Russia completely deprioritized the area thinking their nuclear arsenal would ensure the US and other allies would prevent the Ukrainians from running such an operation. The whole thing has been wonderful from my perspective. I hope the Ukranians continue to enjoy success with this.
  3. It's a dumb thing to say. Encirclements and the propensity to overreach with encirclements are legitimate dangers, but the ability to completely annihilate the enemy force from all directions at once has proven over and over again to be a devastating strategy. But quote Sun Tzu and suddenly it's incontrovertible ancient wisdom. Like so many things, there's wisdom in both stances. Criticizing any and all pincer/encirclement maneuvers seems like a bold move, Cotton.
  4. By the way, they had a media event today with the team. Apparently it's burnt orange carpet premiere as the theme, with the players posing as Hollywood type stars walking the burnt orange carpet in glamorous outfits. Instagram has a reel featuring both Skinner and Swindle.
  5. I'd also say doing sideline reporting for the NFL is a career step up. She called volleyball a bunch for teams other than Texas. I wouldn't say she was universally liked on volleytalk, but it's a tough crowd. The key to her career path isn't necessarily insightful commentary anyway. It's being a hot chick who is passionate about sports and can be minimally articulate about them. I would be a little surprised if she didn't do any volleyball this fall. But if she has a choice between a volleyball match and being a sideline reporter for an NFL game, she'd be dumb not to choose the NFL game.
  6. That was my feeling when she made the national team. "Where is Yossiana Pressley? How is Avery Skinner the star professional from that Baylor team?" But this isn't something new. She's provided a spark numerous times, even while the US team as a whole has been disappointing in international competition. For one thing, it shows the extreme importance of being able to defend in 6 rotations when substitutions are so limited. Pressley couldn't do that. It's also Eggleston's current limitation. But yeah. I'm with you. I didn't see this coming at all.
  7. There's another factor, too. The more effort and resources invested in a course of action, the more invested the individual and organization are in that course of action. Even if a leader is adept at changing their mind and switching course - even reversing it - they now have to convince the people around them this is the right call to make. If they're really good at their jobs, they've done a great job of encouraging people to put in their all towards a direction that turns out to be a horrible mistake, and now need to get the same type of buy in or more in a completely different direction. The qualities it takes to do all of that effectively are exceedingly rare. In any case, it's why I'm all for a regime change, even if I'm convinced because of Russia's toxic culture that goes back centuries we're still going to end up with some asshole in charge of the country.
  8. It feels like a major mistake at this point for any country to agree to disarmament. If there's any lesson to be learned from the war for Ukraine, it's that one.
  9. I have no idea about the reality of any of this. But I do know that one of the biggest difficulties for any human apparatus is to admit when it's made a decision to go in the wrong direction. Oftentimes that simply requires a change in leadership, however it occurs. It's one of the real strengths of democracies, that regular changes in leadership allows the admission of a mistake in policy, resulting in a change in direction. It's also a big weakness, but that's how it goes. The strength of autocratic rule is a diminished reliance on popular support. While still necessary, it's not inherently necessary the way it is in a democracy, so it's possible to move decision making upstream against opposition, and to keep it going that way long past when a democracy would have to change directions. With the death of Putin and the rise of someone else, I can guarantee you Putin will be blamed for every ill that has befallen Russians. His most loyal people will be thrown out of windows, or otherwise imprisoned or killed. Anyone seen as a potential threat to the new leader will be disposed of. He can still be lifted up as a great leader, but his mistakes will be emphasized. Because this is what happens with the transfer of autocratic power unless the transfer is only legitimized by the previous ruler, like say in North Korea. Ukraine will always be in more danger than Georgia, the Baltic states, Finland, and others that Russia feels an entitlement to have firmly in its political sphere. It's the traditional source of the Russian people. Putin shares a general sentiment when he doesn't feel like Ukraine should exist as a separate entity. But this is Russia's best chance to keep Ukraine from the western fold. If they give up their efforts now, that's completely lost. At the very least they need to make sure Ukraine pays such a heavy price in terms of population, economic, resource, and territory losses that it reduces its effectiveness at being a successful nation state. I question whether the next leader is going to be so balls to the wall in their efforts. Speculatively it seems to me more likely they will concentrate their efforts in securing their power base. The likeliest scenario in some ways is a succession of leaders as each one tries to solidify control around their persona. In other words, I am firmly and wholeheartedly rooting for Putin's imminent death, regardless of means. Maybe not the best idea to send a missile to kill him, but I will not be saddened when hearing about his death regardless of means, and regardless of who ends up succeeding him. That they'll end up being another cocksucker seems de rigeur to me.
  10. Why in the world would anyone think that? Russia is a toxic culture, full stop. Even if someone more liberal takes power, they're not going to keep power. Nothing less than a full invasion and conquering, followed by a lengthy occupation is going to change anything all that much about Russia or its rulers. And with nuclear weapons, that option is off the table. The best case scenario is that they become less relevant. It would be helpful for their reduced relevancy for Ukraine to keep their identity and be aligned with the west. It would be even better if they had more of their territorial integrity returned, but I've started losing hope on that front. I'm unconvinced the West has the political will to see that through. Especially with Ukraine running out of manpower to some degree. I know things aren't going well in many ways for the Russians, but with Putin in charge the political will remains steadfast.
  11. *raises hand* Guilty as charged.
  12. The Soviet Union always had issues with any element of projection of power. Their biggest source was communist revolutionaries battling against incumbent, often western facing, authoritarian leadership of one kind or another. Mostly colonial occupation, but not necessarily. Their navy always had serious issues projecting competent power even at the height of the Soviet military. Their air force was designed for Eastern Europe, not projection to far away places. They heavily relied on multiple warhead ICBMs, in large part because of the cost effectiveness. Their ability to attack the continental United States with bombers was always virtually nonexistent. Their biggest successes in projecting power were the rise of Castro in Cuba, the support for various movements in Africa, the establishment of a naval support center in Syria (later upgraded to a base), and then, of course, the dominance of Eastern Europe following WWII. The biggest threat from the USSR militarily always came in the form of a massive invasion of Europe. There wasn't another theater where they were ever any real threat. Something similar could be said about China. I don't know if that changes. They're trying to change it. But I don't think it's changed, yet.
  13. I don't know the actual reasons, but one thing I'd point out is that what is rewarded in the military is staying in your lane, not showing too much initiative, and being ruthless. The FSB is not considered the same kind of potential threat to Putin's rule as the military. Not that people in the FSB and associated secret services are exempt from being culled, but it's possible to be promoted when conducting aspects of hybrid warfare in ways that initiative in the military is not. It is much safer to do what you're told and then be capable in finding a scapegoat when things go wrong than it is to change doctrine or advocate for a different plan of action because of serious concerns about capabilities - in this case the capability of defending the air field. The dynamics for handling the military change drastically when they're constantly seen as the greatest threat to the ruler's power. It's something we take for granted in this country in ways we really shouldn't.
  14. Maybe. My guess is they'll do both. There are a lot of players on the team. It would be pretty easy to put together a scrimmage with the team. It seems dumb not to do that in front of an audience if they have the opportunity, which they do. But they haven't announced one yet, so maybe not. I just can't remember a season where they didn't have an orange and white scrimmage, so it's hard for me to fathom they won't do one again this year. They also scrimmaged UTSA in the spring. That was pretty funny. The UTSA students came out in force for that one.
  15. You realize that a significant portion of the country would be very happy if no more aid was given to Ukraine? Russia should have been fucked a long time ago. Instead, everyone let them have their way for 8 years futzing about in the Donbas, and the support for Ukraine hasn't exactly been balls to the wall since the full scale invasion. I'm grateful for the assistance given, but it didn't have to be like this. The failure to continue aid for months while a strong majority in Congress would have voted for it is a significant sign of how easily this can still go sideways. Let's not suck each other's dicks off just yet.
  16. If you're going to mention Reagan Rutherford from Ridge Point, you should probably mention Skylar Fields. I went to see Rice play USC in Tudor Fieldhouse last year, and Ridge Point followers made up a significant part of the crowd. They had a group of 50 or so students, plus all the adults in the crowd there to cheer on Fields and Smith. I'll also say Texas was owning the state in recruiting before the last two titles. Just can't get everyone. A&M is going to be tough to beat in the near term for Houston Skyline kids. Jamie Morrison went all in to build ties there, including hiring their founder/director as an assistant. The combination of facilities, academics (yes, that can still be of importance - at the very least in terms of rationalizing the decision you want to make anyway), the city of Austin, winning, NIL, the culture Elliott has built, means Texas simply doesn't lose many recruiting battles unless it's against Nebraska. Sometimes depth chart can be an issue but even that is less of a factor than you'd think. BTW, two of the three 2026 scholarships are going to out of state players. Cugino is a libero/DS out of Ohio, and Harris is a setter out of North Carolina. Vander Wal from 2025 is from Illinois. Both Ayden Ames and Macari Spears moved around a bunch and their parents have close ties to out of state schools. It's not as simple as a lot of these girls are native Texans. But there is a close to home factor, for sure. Mostly it's just that Texas is an extremely compelling volleyball product, and Elliott has always been a fantastic recruiter. Bring back Jim Moore as coach and we'd see how much good those Texas ties do in recruiting.
  17. How much do you think she was paid to come to Texas after her sophomore season at Kentucky? Brian Davis did a FOIA request of UT athletics for all reported NIL deals. The highest compensated player on the volleyball team was at $50k, which was Logan Eggleston due to her appearance in the national ad for Champion's sports apparel. But if you feel like you have better information regarding her compensation level, by all means share it. The difference is Texas showed Skinner a path where she could earn more through NIL through her own efforts. Same thing happened with Ayden Ames, who had more guaranteed NIL money from Nebraska but preferred the opportunities at Texas. Also, Texas wasn't competing with Nebraska for Skinner, and no one else had any real organized NIL money for their volleyball program. There's still a huge gap out there, frankly. What you're insinuating is Texas basically bidding against itself. It simply didn't take much NIL money to help convince Skinner to come to Texas, because no one else out there really had anything.
  18. Nebraska has a war chest of about $750,000+ a year in dedicated volleyball funds they can spend in NIL money, with $500,000 coming from a mall developer that's committed over the next 10 years. That's without asking for any one offs from wealthy donors. That's in addition to a stronger local NIL because Nebraska volleyball endorsements mean more from a commercial standpoint in Nebraska than they do in Austin. It's not nothing in Austin, and certainly Texas dwarfs anyone else, but no one is writing a $500,000 check every year for the Texas volleyball NIL program. We lost to Nebraska on Kaitlyn Hord two years ago. We lost to Nebraska on Leyla Blackwell this year even though Texas had a much bigger need at middle blocker. Nebraska stole Taylor Landfair right from under Wisconsin at the last second even though Wisconsin had the bigger need at left pin. We're still beating Nebraska on the recruiting trail, and we've put together better rosters. We're also getting a steady stream of former Nebraska players in Kaylei Akana, Kayla Caffey, and now Whitney Lauenstein, all of whom have varying degrees of antipathy toward the Nebraska staff. Plus Ayden Ames, a high school recruit who switched extremely late in the process, putting Nebraska in a bit of a bind in a sport where no one really flips. Ever. If what you said was true Leyla Blackwell would be on the Texas roster. This team has no experience at the middle blocker position. Talent, yes. Experience, no. Depth? Non existent with Nya Bunton's mysterious injury (she did play some in the spring). Nebraska on the other hand has two veterans at the middle blocker position who are going to be almost impossible for Blackwell to unseat as a starter. Yet she picks Nebraska for her last year. There is no one in volleyball who is relevant when it comes to NIL compared to Texas other than Nebraska. But Nebraska has more resources invested in their volleyball program than Texas does, both from an athletic department standpoint and from an NIL standpoint. They also have more of their collective identity invested in the sport. Doesn't matter. We're the ones with back to back national championships, including arguably the most one sided butt whooping in a national title game in the history of the sport. Certainly in the rally scoring era. But right now Nebraska is going to tend to get their first pick of talent out of the transfer portal, and then Texas will get first pick of the rest. At least when it comes to NIL spending.
  19. Pennies on the dollar. The biggest NIL payday in that portal class was Kaitlyn Hord, who was paid about $100,000 for a year at Nebraska. We lost that one after having her on campus. Skinner and Fleck were the big names brought in, and neither of them were paid above the low tens of thousands of dollars. Both of them are hustlers who leveraged a lot of their own NIL deals. Fleck runs a series of libero camps she tours nationwide with. Caffey was done dirty by Nebraska, but was paid bare minimum NIL dollars by Texas (which is still more than anyone in the country that year outside of Nebraska). Akana wanted a scholarship and John Cook said no, while Texas said yes. Bergmark was hardly a high dollar transfer. Both her and Ewert simply wanted to go somewhere to compete at the highest level. Your post insinuates Texas volleyball paid top dollar for that championship, when nothing could be further from the truth. They had a bunch of unhappy people transfer out, including Cabello and Williams to NC State, Fields to USC, Iosia to Michigan State, and Peterson to play her Covid year with her sister and her head coach Mom at Northern Iowa. It LOOKS like an NIL extravaganza, but it was more about timing and no one else having any NIL resources devoted to volleyball. Even now Texas is ahead of the curve versus everyone other than Nebraska, who has lapped the field with their NIL riches in volleyball. I know this is the softball thread, but I didn't want to let that throwaway comment pass without a response.
  20. Invariably Texas stacks up well in recruiting year after year with pretty much anyone. I'd say the three recruiting superpowers in years past were Stanford, Nebraska, and Texas. Stanford is often hard to gauge because they can't/won't accept commitments until admissions says they're accepted to the school, which doesn't happen until late in the process. It's also tough to be completely clear on if they lost a recruit because of academics or something else. In the past, though, if they wanted a player and the player could qualify academically, they pretty much got them. Not sure how true that's been over the last two recruiting cycles, so we'll see what happens in the future. Nebraska and Texas are 1A and 1B in that order. Nebraska tends to make their choices quickly. They rarely extend their recruiting efforts past the summer. If a player wants to wait and take visits, often they'll just go on to their next target, which puts a lot of pressure on kids if they do get an offer. For about 3 years there they didn't really lose any recruiting battles. Ayden Ames switching to Texas was one of the first ones in three years they lost on. Last year they beat Texas on Campbell Flynn, but Texas beat them on Macari Spears and Taylor Harvey, although Nebraska was pretty much on the outside for both of those players, even though both of them visited the Nebraska campus. Taylor Harvey was even there for their big record setting volleyball match in the football stadium. Outside of that there's another tier of recruiting, probably led by Wisconsin. Wisconsin doesn't really beat Texas or Nebraska for recruits, but they rarely lose to anyone else. Pitt arguably has the best class this cycle, and they're certainly part of that 2nd tier. Louisville is recruiting better than they have in the past, and their past recruiting led to a couple of Final Fours and the championship match appearance against Texas. Minnesota used to put together highly rated classes but have fallen off the pace a bit. USC has a really good class. If you're not Nebraska, it's pretty tough to beat Texas on the recruiting trail right now. Macari Spears and Abby Vander Wal could make a case for the #1 player in the country. They're both left pins. Henley Anderson this year is in that same kind of category. Taylor Harvey was the highest rated middle in her class (although I wish we'd been able to grab Favor Anyanwu - she's going to be a beast of a middle for the Trojans). Genevieve Harris is widely regarded as the best setting in her class. Texas had several good liberos at their elite camp this year, and chose to offer Cugino among them, so whether she ends up being the best or not, they're getting their first choice. It's tough to find issues with Texas volleyball recruiting right now. We're pretty much the 800lb gorilla in that arena. And now the NCAA is going to add 6 more scholarships to the roster, going from 12 to 18 (which makes me very happy - no more 2+2 and 1+3 deals for players to walk on in the hopes of being offered a scholarship later down the track). There are no guarantees regarding future success, and it will be tough to replicate back to back championships, but they're well positioned to be Final Four threats for the foreseeable future, that's for sure.
  21. I think it's going to be exceptionally difficult without congressional action. And I don't foresee congressional action in the current political climate any time soon. There is no transparency, and no real mechanism or governing body that can provide it. Without transparency market forces can't really come to bear efficiently. There's also not the same kind of commercial incentives in college sports that exist in professional sports. I understand they're not exactly NOT present. Of course they are. But there are plenty of boosters willing to invest massive amounts of money to make sure their favorite alma mater is able to win championships without a monetary return that does not exist in the same way in commercial sports. I think we'll continue to see NIL payments explode, even with the settlement, until either the system collapses in some existential way, or congress steps in to provide a workable framework on some level. I don't think there are any other workable solutions. I think a student athlete union has hair all over it and is unworkable as well. That said, I hope Canady comes to Texas, is paid a fortune for it, and Texas continues to excel at collegiate sports because of a robust NIL system until it's finally changed. Don't hate the playa, hate the game.
  22. Hairline fracture plus soft tissue damage around her ankle. It's not clear yet when she'll return. I'm rooting for her to miss the Texas match. Or for Franklin to at least be rusty if she does return to the lineup. They have a true freshman setter starting for them, so at the very least the connection isn't going to be great there, even if she does play. They also face Louisville the week before, and then Stanford right after us.
  23. I'm going to be a little depressed if/when Canady heads to OU from a Texas fan perspective. In softball I'd feel a bit like Carthage going against Rome. I mean, if education was THAT important to her, she wouldn't have entered the portal from Stanford in the first place.
  24. Russia is rich with historical traditions. Like Potemkin villages, for example.
  25. Tomorrow is the first day players can commit. It looks like we're looking good with Genevieve Harris (setter) and Henley Anderson (outside hitter), who just attended the Elite Camp. I don't know if they'll be early commits or not, but maybe. Harris is out of North Carolina. Anderson is from Dripping Springs. Both of them are top 5 overall players in the country types.
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