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I know the tweet talking about this interview was already posted, but I wanted to directly post the interview with retired General David Patraeus regarding the upcoming offensive among other things. It's a fantastic interview, IMO, and well worth a read. Also, it's much more aligned with my rah rah Ukraine sensibilities than the post I just made on Ukraine corruption. I will say from my perspective I do not agree with the assessment of so many negative nancies out there poo-pooing Ukraine's chances in this offensive. I wish there were more of them to lower expectations. I just keep seeing experts talking about, "It''s unrealistic to think Ukraine can force Russian troops back beyond the Russian border, claiming all their recognized territory pre 2014. That's too much to expect. But we do think Ukraine needs to reach the Sea of Azov to cut off the land bridge to Crimea and south of the Dnipro River." I just want to see a breach of the Russian defensive lines, and a concentrated effort to exploit it. Anything beyond that is gravy to me at the moment. Just something to show supporters (I don't need it, but others who actually have influence who do) this isn't necessarily going to be a war of attrition from here on out, and Ukraine is fully capable of conducting counter offensive operations. Anyway, here's the interview:
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So my apologies for getting off the rah rah train for the moment. Believe me, I'm 100% Team Ukraine. But we talk about the endemic corruption in Ukraine society, without understanding a lot of what that means. Here is a sobering 38 minute interview from Kyiv Independent with their journalist, Oleg Sukhov, who covers corruption in Ukraine society. Let's get some things straight. He's not exactly documenting what he's talking about. It's an interview. Everything he's saying could be lies. He could have his own agenda in some way. But I will say he's extremely convincing as someone who seems very earnest about his concerns regardling longstanding corruption in Ukrainian society, how ubiquitous and intractable it is, and how extremely poorly Ukraine has been at fighting it, including - even especially - right now. In a too long/didn't read summary, the gist of the issue is that the bodies being appointed to reform the judicial system by naming judges with integrity and corruption fighting credentials are being run themselves by corrupt judges - members of what Sukhov terms the judicial mafia. Anyway, have a listen. It's sobering. Until listening to this I was under the illusion things were getting better. And maybe they are. Dunno. But he's very convincing that things are not in fact getting better. The good news is that he hasn't been thrown out of a window, so he can keep doing what he's doing.
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Also, you guys were talking about Athen’s mistakes against Sparta. How about Thebes deciding to revolt against Macedon after the assasination of Philip II, with 20 year old whipper snapper Alexander way off in the Balkans campaigning? Alexander force marched in 3 weeks, turned the city to rubble, massacred the men and boys (other than some priests), and sold all the women and girls into slavery. Afterwards the other rebellious Greek city states, including Athens, decided they didn’t feel so rebellious after all. “We good, Alex. We good.” Also, a special mention to Smyrna. After WWI the Greeks were trying to reestablish their historic presence in Anatolia, with Allied support. Then the Allies withdrew their support and Kemal kicked all the Greeks out by force, including the massacre of the Greeks at Smyrna.
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But asking the question, "So I’ll ask again, is this the biggest geopolitical blunder in the history of mankind?" kind of lends itself to epic answers. I don't consider many blunders being discussed - Germany attacking Russia, Japan's surprise attack at Pearl Harbor, Napoleon invading Russia, or the Russian navy's sound defeat at the hands of the Japanese - as the same kind of epochal in nature, because in the end their civilization and culture remained intact. I do like 956 Worldwide's citation of Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. That was a gigantic miscalculation in modern times. I'd also add US support for Khomeini over the Shah, which I've cited on this thread previously. But in terms of something so unnecessary, you and I are on the same page. You made your original response as I was typing, but it's not like I disagree with anything you're saying here or in your previous post. The bottom line for me is that Putin got religion. He became a true believer in his own role in history. I think he still sees himself as the savior of Russia, the savior of Europe, and savior of his racial identity. He doesn't believe Ukraine has a right to exist. He's never thought they should exist. They are meant to be good Russians, and to paraphrase the infamous US officer quote during the Vietnam War, if they have to destroy Ukrainians once and for all to save them, so be it. It's led to an amazing number of miscalculations, in part because he's set up a system where no one dares mention to the emperor he might not be wearing a full set of clothes. Unfortunately they're still very dangerous, even as inept of a fighting force as they've proven themselves to be. I'm concerned about the expectations for this counter offensive. If Ukraine achieves any kind of breakthrough against the Russian fortifications I'm going to be giddy, whereas most talking heads I've watched seem to be continuously talking about Ukraine reaching the sea. I mean, maybe that's what happens. I hope so. It just seems a shame to have that as the expectation. But I do feel like we're about to find out what Ukraine has in store for the Russians.
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Well, I believe it's hard to measure those kinds of things in real time. Off the top of my head I'd say blunders that result in the end of civilizations or ruling classes probably rank higher. For example, Hannibal invading Rome - while brilliant, and I do think could've resulted in an ultimate victory had he been supported by his capital better - ended up with the complete annihilation of Carthage as a civilization. Cleopatra siding with Marc Antony ended with the massacre of her family and the ending of Ptolemaic rule and the Hellenistic domination of Egypt. The leaders of the Khwarazmian Empire probably should've traded with Genghis Khan rather than attack his caravans and behead his ambassadors. The Fourth Crusade sacking Constantinople didn't really do the Christian West a whole lot of favors in the long run. Charles XII invading Russia probably wasn't the best idea in retrospect. The Ottoman Empire siding with the Axis powers. Germany invading Russia and Japan attacking Pearl Harbor weren't great decisions at the time, but Germany is in great shape in many ways as a country/society, as is Japan. The War of 1812 didn't look like such a hot idea when Washington D.C. was being burnt to the ground and the British Navy was making plans to do the same thing to Baltimore (thanks Fort McHenry!). Probably the decisions that led to the breakup of the Soviet Union - such as the invasion of Afghanistan - rank higher in some senses than this right now, simply because the Soviet Union was more powerful and a greater existential threat even beyond their possession of nuclear weapons. But a lot of these - maybe all of them - are foreshadowing dire circumstances which would have come into play eventually anyway. There are a lot more that are more obscure that I'm leaving out. Lots of civilizations have come and gone in existential competition with neighbors, many of them after starting a war they thought they could win, or at least had to start on their own terms because it was "them or us." But as of this moment, it sure seems like one of the great all time geopolitical blunders. Certainly within modern times. They had a nice lucrative trade going on with Europe. The countries there were loathe to do anything to piss Russia off for fear of the consequences. They had possession of Crimea, and no real consequences for taking it, and no one was going to do anything to force them to give it back. The country that would seem to benefit from this the most is China, since they have ambitions to lead the world in their vision of a new world order, and Russia's setbacks take them away as a potential rival to the West, while also drawing so much condemnation and enmity that they're forced to become vassals to the Chinese in many respects.
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Your emotional scars from the 1991 Cotton Bowl might not be as severe as mine.
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Here's the article: https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/01/ukraine-now-probably-has-as-many-tanks-as-russia/ Quite a bit of guess work and assumptions going on, but the point is still the same. Massive advantages Russia had in equipment at the start of the war are no longer massive advantages.
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Not a big fan of the Shock the Nation phrase being used with a likely matchup with Miami coming up.
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I'm with @naija on this one. Again, it's your view, and you're welcome to it. But when I mention the horrors of female mutilation as evidence of worldwide misogyny and then you bring up how we can't point fingers at people surgically removing clitorises because of circumcision in this country, that's a form of equating the two, IMO. I also didn't mean to say we don't have any issues with misogyny in this country. In fact, the whole point of my post was how widespread and normal misogyny is in many ways. And there are plenty of other issues as well. Obviously. But there's not the same kind of issues regarding women in this country that there are in India. The bottom line is you see circumcision as a horrible evil in this world, and I don't. But I can respect that you do. But any kind of conversation where we're trying to equate the two in some way doesn't make any kind of sense to me. It makes me want to vomit a little, to be honest.
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So many great posts and conversations on this page. Here's an NPR article quoting a Russian who used to work in Moscow at the Russian Central Bank but now is in Germany as a Russian analyst for the German Council on Foreign Relations. Lots of information about the severe brain drain and labor shortages going on in Russia, and how it's going to get worse as time goes on. Dovetails with some of the things @The Dog is saying. I tend to be of the view that timeliness is important for the upcoming counter offensive, but it being successful is way more important. But that's a different post. Anyway, here's the article. Good stuff if you like reading about Russian's systemic weaknesses in fighting this war, which I think most of us do: https://www.npr.org/2023/05/31/1176769042/russia-economy-brain-drain-oil-prices-flee-ukraine-invasion
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You and I don't see circumcision the same way, although I do appreciate your passion and conviction on the subject. I especially appreciate the picture you're drawing of rampant baby dick sucking and chewing on the foreskin. I don't really see it as the crime against nature you do. I'm not going to make any effort to change your mind. I'll simply say we'll have to agree to disagree. That said, I find your efforts to equate circumcision to the surgical removal of a female's clitoris horrifying. The procedures itself aren't even close to comparable. The lasting effects aren't in the same ballpark. And the motivations for each procedure are vastly different. Regardless, male circumcision is on the decline as well. I just don't think of it as compelling an issue as you do. Since we're talking about India, and my post specifically was about misogyny worldwide, I don't understand how the rate of genital mutilation among females in the United States has as much of an impact on the discussion as you seem to. But I certainly appreciate and respect your position that it does.
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Ah, got it. I guess I thought you were replying to me regarding India, but you were talking in a more general way. Yes, the British had themselves quite a run there for a while. Thanks for the clarification.
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I don't understand your point here. I'm saying the British couldn't have changed the culture of India if they'd wanted to - which they didn't really, it wasn't what they valued about ruling India - until mid 19th century because neither the government nor their proxy, the British East India Company, actually controlled the subcontinent. As opposed to the Americas where they pretty much eradicated the culture of the Native Americans in areas where they colonized. I mean, I'm saying "they" but the US did a pretty slam bang job of taking over after winning independence. But while the nature of the colonization in Canada was slightly different, it still amounted to an institutional eradication of the Native American cultures. Something similar occurred in Australia. I'm comparing what the British did in NA and Australia to what they did in India. It was radically different in many ways. Although, to be fair plenty of Bengalis started accusing Churchill of genocide around a decade ago, a claim I do not agree with. No one should doubt British domination over much of the world for several hundred years, primarily through their command of the seas and their early start with the Industrial Revolution, but that domination took different forms in different places. I'd also like to point out that Hindus didn't actually run India for almost 400 years. They certainly seem determined to make up for lost time under Modi, however.
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Then you have women's track and field, which can only get fewer projected points. On the other hand, baseball has a ton of room to increase over their projected points since they're not even a regional host, whereas Stanford is projected to be a super regional host. I'd rather be in Stanford's shoes in that regard, but there is a lot of room to improve on the projected standings.
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As someone who has made some really dumb decisions and through nothing I did managed to live through them without deserving to, I can tell you his last thoughts as he blub blub blubbed were, "that was a really dumb thing I did."
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Yeah, it’s a common complaint directed towards me for sure.
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It hasn’t been ruled out. The Russians made a big deal out of the apparent nuclear escalation if the US sent them to Ukraine, but all I saw from official US sources was the equivalent of, “stop. You’re embarrassing yourself.” But I did see that narrative parroted by imbeciles to one degree or another. Not even just Russian socks. A lot of folks who want to wring their hands about things they’re completely ignorant of, one of them being the dangers of exposure to radiation from depleted uranium shells on the battlefield.
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I'm not claiming a moral high ground on anything. I'm saying misogyny is rampant worldwide, and always has been. If you're referring to circumcision, regardless of your views of it, there's a different level of invasiveness in surgically removing a male's foreskin and surgically removing a female's clitoris. I'm not defending either practice, but I am saying this is not an apples to apples comparison.
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Article about the general difficulties operating the Abrams in theater, with lots of quotes from our favorite pro Ukraine retired US general, Mark Hertling: https://kyivindependent.com/what-will-it-take-for-ukraine-to-maintain-and-operate-the-m1-abrams/
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It depends on the level of interaction, the size of the population, and the desire for power/control. There's not a big need for the Amish to assimilate, for example. They're not a growing community, and they have no desire for increased political or economic leverage. But the lack of assimilation will always mean they're a potential target if some community leader is able to successfully identify them as a threat. It's their inherent powerlessness that is their key to avoiding certain repercussions. If a community is having a challenge keeping their cultural identity - Italian Americans, for example - that's not necessarily a bad thing. The pressure to marry another Italian, or for an Irish American to marry another Irish, is not the same it used to be. To the extent it still exists - and it for sure does - that cultural identity will be kept alive. But the level of Italian or Irish immigrants is not at the same massive level it once was. If the Irish were running a Tammany Hall in every major city in the US, that would be an issue. It would be to the benefit of the Irish short term, but long term it would create cultural resentments and backlashes, possibly catastrophic ones. To the extent any other immigrant group takes over those kinds of roles and is able to sustain them, it's a danger to the cohesiveness of the country. The cultural identification enjoying the benefits of tribal favoritism will feel like they've rightfully earned their influence and power, but the unintended consequence will eventually be a significant counter cultural backlash. It's inevitable. The best way to avoid this is as much assimilation as possible. Being productive, abiding by laws, paying taxes is not enough if one identifiable tribe becomes so powerful - even through meritocratic means - that it creates a schism where other tribes feel justified in either ending or at least reining in their source of power. I'm very purposefully not identifying one specific tribe here. Substitute white anglo-saxon protestants, and it's the same result. If I were to give you a list of minorities throughout the course of history where this backlash occurred - or is even occurring right now - we'd be here all day. It's practically impossible to identify a country where that's not the case unless the country is literally so homogenized that the dynamic doesn't really even exist.
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I don't know what that is. I've been posting on UT affiliated sports forums under the same handle and only this handle since the advent of the world wide web and netscape on the old GoBig12 board, so I think the answer is no?
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It's certainly not a moral superiority except in one specific sense. Nation states that have somehow been able to implement systems that allow for the regular peaceful transfer of power to different groups vying for the right to control a nation's affairs are going to have different political options than autocratic countries, or even democracies infused with tyranny of the majority dynamics. But I don't think of that as moral superiority. It's simply that there's no real right, final answer for how to run things. It's all on a spectrum, and as a species we're constantly shifting along those spectrums too far one way and then too far the other. If you never give the other side an opportunity to screw things up on a regular basis, bad things are going to happen. Of course, there's an inherent fragility in having a culture that puts an emphasis on giving the other side a turn, because there's going to be a natural tendency that how our side views things is of course the correct one, and if the other side is allowed to be in charge it's going to mean the end of everything. Which then justifies all kinds of horrible behavior. And then there's the historical fact that all nation states fail at one time or another. Oh, and now we have the technological means to end much of life on the planet, which we didn't have before.
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You and I have very different ideas of the level of absolute control Great Britain held over India in the 1500s and beyond until well until the 19th century.
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Long term I'd also like to see more assimilation. That's not specific to Indians. That's among all cultures and ethnicities. But assimilation and identification with cultural origin are somewhat paradoxical. I don't know how you can have both. Just the other day I was talking to an older gentleman who grew up in a Czech community in central Texas. He was telling me all about how the Czech and German communities saw each other as enemies. There was no intermarrying. Salesmen did not cross into the other community's territory. Both communities raised their children to speak the mother language fluently, and then used it to identify others who were not part of the community. But over time that was lost to a degree. Which is sad in a way that the ties for the Czech and German communities are not as strongly identified as they used to be. On the other hand, there's not the same Montague and Capulets dynamic going on anymore, either. We're not doing the greatest job in this country of assimilation. That's been true for at least the last 50 years, IMO. But I don't know. Then there's my Greek Orthodox friends who are part of what I consider one of the most successful diasporas on the planet. Certainly in the Houston area. They'll invite me to their homes for dinner. They'd gladly travel with me to Greece. But I know without a doubt that dating their daughter is off the table. She'll marry a good Greek boy. That's more metaphorical than literal, but the message is the same. Same thing for Koreans. Same thing for Jews. That's the key to keeping a cultural identification going generation after generation. The Hindu population is much the same with the added aspect of arranged marriages. But if we're saying Indians in America have a different level of respect and treatment for Indian women in America than Indian men do in India, I couldn't agree more. That's for sure. I'd say the same is true in the UK, too. I'll also say our immigration policies are whacked in many ways. Numerous highly educated, highly competent friends of mine have had to leave the country when their visa expired. A couple of highly educated Indians I know moved to Canada even though their parents were citizens because they couldn't live and work here legally any more. Those are merely anecdotal, but India is an issue in particular because there's so much more demand to come here than the quotas for each country will allow. Nonetheless, you're right that the US has been well served by being able to immigrate a highly motivated, educated workforce to this country from Hindu communities abroad.
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