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SL Xpress

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Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. There’s also a rise in anti war feelings among the younger generation. Not necessarily anti military the way it was post Vietnam, but a general feeling of the US military aren’t necessarily the good guys. Something similar is happening with law enforcement, too. Different topic, but the population dynamic and shift in attitude is similar. The falling ASVAB scores have been an issue for some time. Maybe it’s reaching a critical mass? Don’t know. But DoD has put out papers before citing it as a concern. And then there are the usual issues with a volunteer force that have been cited for decades. That basically a smaller and smaller percentage of our population has any real contact with military personnel. The presidential elections used to be filled with candidates who served, but now it’s become something of a rarity. Not saying we should go back to full mobilization a la WWII just so more of our population has served, but it’s an unintended consequence for sure.
  2. It’s all perspective. I was in engineering on a 30 year old steam engine cruiser based on 32nd street. When I would head up to the sub base north of Seattle it was night and day how those guys lived and how we did. The nuke ratings are one of the stars of the Navy in many ways. I’m sure it doesn’t always feel like that when you’re in it, but that’s because you’re not in the surface fleet. In any case, it’s for sure a sacrifice. All military service is. I didn’t retire, so far be it from me to say why someone else should or shouldn’t re-enlist. If I made it sound like nukes are on easy street, that was not my intent.
  3. And they're very choosy about who gets in the nuke rating, so these are people with plenty of options. Shoot, I bet a high chunk of our nuclear workforce comes from the Navy. Yeah, it's a demanding rate where you're underwater all the time. They're treated well at base, but it's not like they get a ton of shore leave. I wonder what the re-up percentage is for nukes versus non nukes? The problem is how much more costly it is to train the nukes, and how much more choosy they are for that rating in the first place. Honestly, the armed forces overall are hurting badly in recruitment right now. It's just a different environment to be recruiting to the military at the moment. You'd think fighting two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would have made it more difficult, but it didn't.
  4. Define recent? That's been going on for years. The airlines are short on pilots, so they're paying more. That's always going to take a big chunk out of the military when the airlines are hiring like they are right now. There are some systemic issues in both the air force and navy. They're not paid a market rate. They don't get to fly as often as they'd like. Or anywhere close, really. For fighter pilots it's a good ol' boys club dealing with a me too environment. It's not a group that's exactly friendly with political correctness. Frankly, it's always been difficult. It's just more difficult. Unless they suddenly raise the pay scale by a bunch and increase the amount of hours they're training, it will continue to be an issue. In other words, it's going to continue to be an issue. I could still see pilots willing to head to Ukraine not only to support the mission, but also simply to fly the plane they were trained to fly.
  5. Apparently he did a decent job in convincing Ole Miss players to stick around. But I don't know their specific numbers. I'm sure he'll have quite a few transfers, and he won't be terribly picky the first year. Ole Miss has been so terrible the last couple of years, they'll improve as a program by simply not completely sucking.
  6. Maybe. I have no idea how good at S&C work Reilly was technically, but he was hell on wheels in terms of imparting a culture. Not saying he was bad at S&C work. Carr alone was a good example of outstanding S&C work over the past year. And he was completely and utterly on the same page with Beard, as evidenced by the fact he's leaving Texas to go to Ole Miss. That's what you need in an S&C guy IMO. Someone who is so bought in that they'll be your advocate and voice when you're not around. That's not to defend Beard for what he did. It's simply to say he had that part figured out in ways I'm unconvinced Terry does. But we'll see. Mostly I'm just saying there's a lot of dismissiveness going on regarding the S&C coach that I don't agree with. Now, I'm hardly the end all be all. I simply have a difference of opinion regarding the importance of that hire and the loss Reilly represents. Although if he's that gung ho in joining Beard, better now than later. It's a good thing he's leaving, in that sense. Gives Terry a chance to build his team.
  7. At the very least it's a political statement. Nothing says we hate you a lot more than we used to like putting a fence across your border with razor wire on top. It won't stop an invasion, but it's a lot more inconvenient than simply strolling across like they used to be able to do.
  8. There is virtually no chance Ukraine has as much munitions as it wants or needs. It's a systemic issue. I've posted about it before. First, let's take a look at the US economy. It's no longer a manufacturing powerhouse, and hasn't been really since the 70s and 80s, when it systematically began offshoring its most important supply chains for cost savings. That's important because it limits how much of the peacetime economy can be moved into military production. Namely, zero. A significant part of the biggest manufacturing capability the US retains is subsidized one way or another through the defense industry. Not all of it, but a significant part. Those manufacturers depend on the US budget and how the Department of Defense allocates its funding for market indicators on what it should invest in. By far the biggest expenditures go towards research and development for big ticket items, and the support and maintenance for those items. When it comes to artillery, the US has deemphasized it as a centerpiece for their military doctrine really since the Korean War. Either conflicts are asynchronous, such as Vietnam or Afghanistan, or the US uses complete air superiority and then munitions delivered through the air to fulfill the same kind of function artillery used to provide. Basically US and western based tactics emphasize air superiority and ground based mobility, more so than artillery. The market indicators for manufacturers for 60 years, then, has been to produce a minimum of artillery shells simply to keep stocks up and to make sure there's plenty for troops to train with. Which they've done. That's around 14,000 shells per month maxed out. It's not enough to simply tell defense contractors we want more shells. That's not how it works. There's no excess capacity out there waiting to be utilized. For companies to invest in new production facilities, they're going to want assurances the DoD isn't going to just pull the rug out from under them with a different administration, or a shift in doctrine. That's not easy to do. They have been doing a lot of work on that front, so that this summer they're expecting to raise production to 40,000 shells per month. Next year they think they can get it up to 90,000 shells per month. That's not disinformation. That's straight up logistics and how the industry works. If you go to Europe, the situation is both better and worse. There's at least more options for artillery shell production, but because of the political realities of EU and NATO, production has to be split between different countries for virtually any system produced. That's not a big deal for peace time, because the collaborative process which is far from efficient can still produce the result needed given enough time. Just need to make enough people happy. But in wartime, the collaborative process makes everything bog down. France wants to keep all the business and purchases in the EU. Countries like Hungary and Austria don't want to subsidize with a single penny munitions going to Ukraine. Hungary because it views Russia favorably. Austria because it values its neutrality, even though it's a part of EU. Then there's Switzerland, which produces a decent amount of 155mm shells, but doesn't want them going to Ukraine for the same reason. There are 155mm shells being produced elsewhere around the world, but those have their own complications. Then you have the atrophy of EU military spending. Recently it was discovered there simply aren't enough explosives being produced in the EU to make the artillery shells they have the capacity for, and again, buying outside of the EU is fraught with political tension of one kind or another. With all that, then you take a look at the sheer number of shells Ukraine needs every month. Ideally they'd love to have somewhere around 400,000 shells per month. 400,000! Per month! Combined the US and the EU can't come anywhere close to that. They can't even hit the 100,000 mark together. Ukraine rations to fire off about 120,000 shells per month, but even that is only sustainable because the US and EU draw down on their reserves, which has its own issues both in terms of military readiness for the countries drawing down, and politically with politicians who want to curb the amount of support being given Ukraine. I'm not competent enough to talk about the documents and how real they are. I tend to believe they're real enough. The funny thing to me is many of the leaks seem to have occurred on Discord where gamers got into heated arguments over Ukraine, and so someone spilled the documents as a way to win an argument. Which sounds completely farcical unless you've ever been on Discord. I can believe it. And then they've been altered to fit agendas as they got passed around. Regardless, the lack of shells is a real issue that isn't going away. My biggest hope is that they've been able to ration their use enough in their defense of places like Bakhmut so that they have enough to mount an effective offensive, but I sure am glad I'm not the one having to make the decisions as to how much rationing is enough, and how much is too much.
  9. One of the issues I was reading about regarding the F-16 is that it's one of the worst to do this with because of its sensitivity to debris on the runway. The airfields have to be maintained at a pretty high level to prevent debris from getting into the intake - more so than with some other fighters. In all honesty, I don't think that's the only reason, but it is a legitimate issue. The person I was watching was recommending the Swedish Gripen as a better fighter for what Ukraine is trying to do because it's specifically designed for mobile airfield deployment from the ground up, from takeoff, to maintenance and support. And then the Hornet was second best because it's designed for aircraft carrier deployment, which necessitates a more compact maintenance and support by definition. Of course, there are so MANY more F-16s, and so many roles it can be used for. I'm sure the reluctance to send them over has way more to do with politics - including funding - than it does the cleanliness of the runways required. I still found it interesting coming from an objective observer.
  10. "A message board where everyone is busy understanding without expressing their personal opinion is boring as fuck." - SL Xpress
  11. I like Frank Haith. And he has a bunch of head coaching experience. Never set the world on fire, but he had some decent seasons. He was always a good recruiter.
  12. Some of you are discounting the S&C job for some reason. It's actually one of the most important staff positions overall, since the S&C coach spends way more time with the players than any of the coaches do. You need a guy who is completely aligned with what the head coach is trying to accomplish in terms of culture. A lot of what everyone enjoyed about this team this year was built during their time with Reilly. I know some of you saw all of his social media uploads, where he changed up the workout routines to make them more fun and exciting. Also, apparently Beard hired another former assistant in Wes Flanagan who has been an assistant at his alma mater, Auburn, for the past 5 years. He's built a pretty good staff at Ole Miss. Not as good as the staff he built at Texas, but with Reilly coming on board, it looks pretty stout to me. Also, put me in for a vote for team Derka.
  13. Both BYU and UH will beef up the conference a bit. UCF has been good lately, but they just lost their version of Pressley, McKenna Melville, after she'd been there for 5 years, so they're going to have a drop off. The Big 12 is actually going to be a pretty competitive conference once Texas leaves.
  14. Well, maybe not. Pressley was special. But we'll see. I don't think it will be this year's team, that's for sure. Too young. Elite 8s and Final Fours are no joke. Especially when you have so many of those 8 slots taken up with an annual reservation by programs like Texas, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, and now I guess maybe Louisville. Maybe even Penn State can get back there based on their portal recruiting this year. I don't think Baylor is about to emerge as a program at that level, but I do think they can be at a level just below that consistently.
  15. While I agree about Pressley, I don’t know that I agree about Baylor. I guess it depends on what we’re calling good. They’re recruiting really well, and I think McGuyre is a good coach. Someone is going to have to be the best program in the Big 12 after Texas departs, and while the likeliest answer is BYU, Baylor took take that crown. They were one of the few teams to beat Wisconsin. They hosted as a top 16 seed. Made it to the Sweet Sixteen. And they were extremely young. Now they’re going to be even younger this season. Stowers looks like a stud. Not Pressley good, but she looked just a notch below that last night as a true freshman. I think Baylor is going to be right up there as a Sweet 16 type program for a while, and once they can get some experience, I could see them making another push for a regional host/Final Four again. The key will be instate recruiting. A&M has three uber recruiters with a lot of relationships in the club world on their staff. UH is on the rise. Their former assistant at TCU looks like he might do something. Tonya Johnson is at LSU. Baylor has made a living grabbing all the girls that Texas didn’t go after. We’ll see how well that works out for them in the long run. But I think they’re here to stay as long as they keep McGuyre, and I don’t think he’s looking to leave. All that said, Pressley was spectacular. I’m glad I got to watch her as much as I did throughout her career.
  16. LHN showing the spring match tonight against Baylor at 7:30pm. I’m sure it will be 5 sets.
  17. Wrong thread.
  18. Here's a podcast regularly featuring Micheal Kofman, analyst for the war in Ukraine. He has a very balanced view, although he doesn't come to a lot of conclusions. Basically says a lot is riding on the upcoming offensive and what Ukraine is able to do afterwards, whether they make any progress, and if they do, are they able to follow up on it. He questions if we're at the apex of Western support for Ukraine. He doesn't come to any definitive conclusions. He's simply wondering if that's the case. He compares Bakhmut for the battle for Sievierodonetsk in the sense he wonders if Ukraine spent too many resources in both places. The one thing I've always had difficulty regarding Kofman is that he's very much an analyst, which isn't a bad thing. But if it can't be measured he's at a bit of a loss to comment on it. Which is good in its way. Because that can lead to rampant speculation, and while he's certainly capable of speculating, all of it tends to be grounded in what he can measure on some level, whether he has the data or not (for example, Russian troop effectiveness, or the availability of artillery shells on either side). I found it well worth my 28 minutes to listen to in any event. https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/russia-will-soon-be-on-the-defense-but-then-what/?fbclid=IwAR1SZHDEEbHN-l_UAmtAu9onr-Yyh1yXWyUha3CR_DYV0yci2izZ4eTfwKM
  19. Here's 3 tweets showing an artillery attack on a Russian bunker, followed by two tanks firing on the position, followed by Rob Lee interpreting a commander saying at the start of the first video there is an artillery shortage in their area so they're crowdfunding UAVs to compensate:
  20. 93rd Mechanized Brigade found a lot of mines in an area of Bakhmut that also happened to have a lot of Russian/Wagner forces, so they decided to clear the mines. Possibly the force there, too:
  21. Here's the full interview with English subtitles:
  22. I know that was a part of our strategy last year. We’d try very hard to be the first ones to contact players and the first question we asked was “would you be interested in hearing from Texas.”
  23. Story from the BBC reporter Steve Rosenberg regarding the arrest of WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich. He has to be wondering if he'll be next.
  24. So this is a 47m video about the return of two teenage girls, Nastya age 18, and Masha, age 17, to Ukrainian territory after being deceived into evacuating from Kherson to Crimea by collaborators and Russian authorities. I'm not going to vouch for the quality of the reporting. To me it feels like a bunch of people who are a little out of their depth. What I can vouch for is that very quality is a part of what allowed them to do what they did - basically organize the girls' departure when no one else was willing to do it. So if you find the story a little slow going, stick with it if you find the material compelling, because the story itself is pretty amazing. One of the people interviewed claims there are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children held in Russian controlled territory, both in Donbas/Crimea, and other regions, as well as Russia itself. As Zelensky says in footage from a press conference, there is not much Ukraine can do to compel the return of those children. As we all know, a chief instigator of the arrest warrant for Putin issued by The Hague is about the abduction of children, but it continues to be an underreported ongoing issue, namely because the war itself takes precedence, for understandable reasons. In any case, this was released yesterday, so it's very new. I hope these kids' stories become a viral hit, and they get to meet with President Zelensky as they imagine.
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