Jump to content

SL Xpress

Full Members
  • Posts

    4266
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by SL Xpress

  1. That's because we're not in the SEC yet. Those Florida fans will learn. Nebraskans have a hate for Texas that goes well beyond CWS, btw. We don't see it in football much any more because both programs have struggled with relevancy, but in volleyball you see it all the time.
  2. Some of it is being dumb. But some of it is just human nature. There's a certain segment who wants to be supportive of the status quo, whatever the status quo is. It's not so much that they're sheeple. It's more they want to cheer, not to boo. They feel like part of the role of being a fan is to be optimistic about what might occur, and to see positives in what is going on. And frankly, we need people like that to function as a society. Get too many and it's not good. But get too many people who constantly want to burn things down and it's not good, either. And remember, on any forum the people who post are heavily outnumbered by the people who simply read. That includes surly. So the ones who are posting are generally the most motivated to have their view expressed, which means people who are strongly against whatever is going on, along with people who are strongly supportive. But none of that is important. The most important thing is that you were very right and get to say I told you so as often and as repeatedly as you care to. And I'm here to be supportive of you in that endeavor. Fuck that guy. So happy he's at Marquette now. So happy I get to watch him perform breathing exercises at the under 4 minute timeout for someone else.
  3. Zoe Fleck was featured on the podcast Coffee with Berez and Z, featuring Kentucky volleyball players Maddie Berezowitz and Azhani Tealer. The conversation turns to Texas around the 25:30 mark. She confirms on there the reason she transferred from UCLA was a lack of scholarships for her 5th year, otherwise it's likely she would never have come to Texas
  4. I completely underestimated how limited Disu would be. I will say I'm not sure Beard utilizes Disu as well as he's being used right now. Maybe he does, but I give a lot of credit to the current staff - Terry included - that Disu has played such a significant role lately. Reminds me a lot more of Barnes than it does Beard.
  5. UK Defense Intelligence saying Russia may have lost momentum in Bakhmut, with several Russian MoD units reallocated elsewhere.
  6. Not trying to get into cloak room, but this is important in terms of US support for Ukraine. Republican Michael McCaul is the head of the Foreign Affairs committee, and he's been very public that we need to do more to help Ukraine. McCaul represents an odd district that runs from west Houston to Austin.
  7. I felt like last year was awesome. He had a more limited talent pool on the roster than we thought heading into the season. There was a dearth of athletes. Players couldn't create their own shot. 3 point shooting was lacking. But they played intense man to man defense, guarded the 3 point line extremely well, and while it wasn't a lot of fun to watch a lot of times, were efficient on offense. I could see a vision for what he wanted to do. He just needed to get more of his type of players. Needed to get to the #5 seed and I think we could have made it to the Sweet 16, but we didn't, and ended up facing a Purdue team that had a second big and actual experienced/talented guards rather than the mess of this year's Purdue team. Just a bad matchup with the exact kind of officiating that was going to spell our doom. It seemed like a great year to me. This year is better, though.
  8. I didn't communicate that well at all. I meant that he shouldn't have been in a situation where he'd be arrested. Not that he shouldn't have been arrested.
  9. A glowing article regarding Ukrainians ability to master different aspects of the Patriot system while training in Fort Sill. Also some information regarding other Ukrainians who have been training in combined arms tactics. Not too surprising regarding the Ukrainians. These are combat veterans on their air defense systems hand picked to undergo the training. Still, it’s a fun article to read for Ukraine fan boys like me. Usually I’d cut and paste the article, but it’s too much of a pain in the butt on my phone, but here’s the link: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/ukrainian-soliders-patriot-missile-training-oklahoma-00088166?cid=apn
  10. I was thinking about the growing tensions between western countries and China. The more that becomes front and center, the more interesting that relationship becomes, in the ancient Chinese curse way of “may you live in interesting times.”
  11. I don’t know if he gets Ole Miss to the top tier in a couple of years. But he’s going to have that program at a very competive level in short order. They’ll be in the tournament next year if Beard isn’t arrested and fired for something. For Ole Miss that would be a gigantic accomplishment. That said, I believe he’ll be gone to his next job in short order. But the guy is wound tight for sure.
  12. A lot of ramifications for this. This war is certainly sealing the fate of Russia in all kinds of ways. I'm curious if it ends up being the advantage for China it seems to be in the short run. I guess it depends on the Western response.
  13. I don't feel like it's doom and gloom whatsoever. Nonetheless, Russia makes incremental advances, and Ukraine makes none. It's been that way for months. That's not being doom and gloom. That's simply a recitation of the facts on the ground. I'll also say that Bakhmut doesn't have to make sense to me. They've held it for 8 months. They continue to hold it. I'm saying that I would have preferred they retreat to higher ground with a more stable front line, but they haven't. I also don't think I'm alone in that view. It doesn't make it the right one. I also acknowledged that a successful offensive in a couple of months will make Bakhmut's current situation forgotten on a number of levels. Some of which you already brought up in terms of Russia having to move forces to deal with new threats on different parts of the front. This conversation is all in response to someone putting out a question as to what is happening in Bakhmut and why, and me trying to address it in some way. I just don't appreciate you giving a response to me pointing out Ukraine's successful offensive last fall like it's some kind of new information.
  14. Dumb. I noticed the article also quotes the general secretary for the British Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), who is also dumb. I'm disappointed the British aren't sending 28 challenger 2 tanks afterall. I missed the UK MoD denying they were doubling the amount being sent. Still grateful for the British breaking the logjam of who would go first in donating main battle tanks.
  15. I have to admit that's a compelling hire. I'll stick with my prediction, though, of Beard being their next coach. I believe he's going to get a lot of credit for how Texas does this year, whatever that ends up being, and then I think he's going to win at Ole Miss very quickly, have that fan base rocking their SBJ Pavilion in a way they never have before, and I feel like the Kentucky fans/boosters/administrators are going to take notice.
  16. Actually I do know. Beard made the call. Beard is a top 5 coach in the country. Watch what he does at Ole Miss in very short order, and then where ever he coaches next. Beard gets the credit because he's the one who built what this program is right now from scratch in a year and a half. There's not a single person on this staff because of Rodney Terry. That's okay. Now he gets his chance to put his imprint on the program. You feel like "we" give Beard too much credit. I feel strongly you're not giving him enough. But he was arrested for a felony charge of domestic violence when he shouldn't have been. He had to go. No question. He wasn't just the face of the operation. He was also the person responsible for every single person who was a part of the operation. Now it's Terry's turn. Let's see what he does with it.
  17. Do you feel like you're educating me? I'm talking about over the last 3 months or so. Russia makes tiny incremental advances, but when they make an advance, the territory is not given up. Surely you know I'm quite aware of the massive counter offensives Ukraine succeeded with in Kharkiv and Kherson. I feel like you're insulting my intelligence with this post. Is that your intention?
  18. I'll give you a specific example. Keyonte George wanted to come to Texas. Towards the end of his recruitment Beard made the decision not to take him because he simply didn't fit what Beard wanted on his team - even though George is without a doubt a potential lottery pick. There's simply no way Terry makes that same decision. He's going to bring in talent when he can, regardless of how they fit with the rest of the team. That said I hope we all realize the deal is done. Terry is our next head basketball coach regardless of what happens against Xavier. I'm hopeful the staff is staying minus Reilly, who I would be shocked if he stayed on. The danger for the staff to me is what happens a year or two from now, especially if Beard eventually gets the Kentucky job the way I think he will. It's easy to stick around right now. Everyone is euphoric. The feeling of being betrayed by Beard for his stupid decision making regarding his fiancee is fresh. Terry is a nice guy and everyone wants to support him. My big issue with Terry is his ability to have an overall vision, and to be compelling in communicating that vision. I don't think he's good at either one. That's not going to be revealed immediately, especially when he is able to take what Beard built as his foundation. That appears over time. But maybe I'm wrong and we're about to enter a golden age for Texas men's basketball. Wouldn't that be fun!
  19. Well, I'd argue it's not just Bakhmut. We're seeing some of the same things around Avdiivka. The town itself is a ridiculously well fortified fortress, basically, with a system of bunkers and trenches. It's been on the front lines since 2014. It's only about 8 miles north of Donetsk, and for a time was actually captured by separatist forces early on before the UAF threw them back. And yet we continue to see each day the Russians creeping around on the flanks. It's at the point where Bakhmut was a couple of months ago. Then in the Kharkiv Oblast, there was a time it looked like Ukraine might capture Kreminna. Now Ukraine is getting pushed back along the entire front, west of the city. There aren't any major gains, but day by day there are incremental advances, and like I said above, once Russia takes ground, they don't seem to be giving it up for the most part. Nonetheless, I agree completely about what a successful offensive could do to Russian operations. Of course, the failures in Iraq were exactly that it takes more troops to effectively occupy a country than it does to defeat the military forces in the first place, and there simply wasn't the political will to deploy 200,000 US troops or so in Iraq for years at a time. But that's also why The Surge helped in a lot of respects. It was a big move in the right direction. The difference is by that point it was completely asynchronous warfare, and this isn't. This is two similarly armed forces going toe to toe. I've seen it dismissed, but honestly there are a lot more similarities with the Iran Iraq war than I feel people have drawn thus far. Much different terrain in many respects, and there the more motivated enemy is the one who used wave tactics, and the less motivated one had a bit of an advantage in terms of military systems. But some of the same issues Iraq was facing during the attritional period are some of the same ones Ukraine is right now.
  20. Yeah, Chasiv Yar has always been more important because it's at the top of a hill, more so than Bakhmut, down in the valley. It overlooks a critical swath of the T0504, the "Road of Life" for Bakhmut, which is already under Russian artillery fire. There's also a local dirt road that leads from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut which is also used to ferry supplies and people back and forth, but with the muddy season its utility was reduced. At one point the Russians were making a significant push towards Chasiv Yar, but Ukraine sent some of their best forces there, and they pushed them back. This war has given me a new appreciation for our own armed forces. It's not like I didn't think we were awesome before, but you look at the battles in Ukraine, and it's easy to surmise that the US would have wiped the floor in terms of a toe to toe battle - with either force, really - in no time. Occupation would be a different matter, but in terms of any standing organized military units, they wouldn't have stood a chance. I didn't think I took our land based forces for granted, but this war has shown me that I have in some ways.
  21. I've seen this reported by a number of sources, but this was the first article that showed up in my Google search. 7 countries in NATO managed to spend 2% of their GDP on defense in 2022, which is incredibly woeful. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (Yay, Baltic!) Poland, and then the US and UK. Oh, and Greece, because of fears (and a LONG time historical enmity) of fellow NATO member, Turkiye. The EU as a block spent 1.5% on GDP, which is not covered in this article. The Baltic countries and Poland are pushing for a raise from 2% to 2.5% as a target. Here's the article: https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/only-7-nato-members-hit-alliances-2-percent-gdp-defense-spending-target-in-2022/
  22. I appreciate you taking so much time to put this out there. Here are my some of my thoughts on Bakhmut, and to some degree the whole eastern front for the last few months. 1. The priority for UAF has been to create new brigades, train them on new western armor that had been pledged, and prepare for a late spring/summer offensive depending how when the equipment arrived. From what I've read 28,000 troops have been pulled away, with a mixture of veterans and newer recruits, to form an effective assault force based on mobility and puncturing enemy lines. There's no way to tell how effective this force will be, with all the variables involved, until they're actually utilized. If they're effective, then the defensive posture of the UAF through these last few months will have been worth it, and frankly, we'll forget a lot about whatever thoughts we've had regarding Bakhmut and the decisions being made there. 2. The second priority has been to not give up an inch to the Russians. We've seen very few tactical retreats, to the point I'd say there really haven't been any, when we saw quite a few in the first 6 months of the war. One of the few ones I've seen was the tactical withdrawal from the eastern river in Bakhmut. 3. The center has held in Bakhmut. The progress from the frontal assaults on the eastern front of Bakhmut have been astoundingly woeful on the Russian side. They'll take some outlying buildings. The next day the Ukrainian troops take them back. This has gone on for 8 months. 4. The part that has endangered Bakhmut are the flanks. We saw the fight for Soledar, which the Russians were able to successfully prosecute. Look how far they've reached since then. It's not impressive for a mechanized force, but for assault troops in trench warfare relying solely on infantry they've continually pushed Ukrainian forces back, and now are even headed north along the M03. The biggest thing for me is that there are no real setbacks for the Russian forces. Their progress is plodding and incremental, but once they take ground, the Ukrainians are not able to take it back. From what I've read Russians employed waves of attacks as reconnaissance. They tried to find seams in the defenses, and attack there. When they found weak spots, they exploited them. Ukrainians have their own mobilization issues, and their best, most effective units can't be everywhere at once. The Russians are able to find where the least effective defense forces are by throwing bodies in waves at the defenders. When people are massacred, that's probably not a weak spot. When they're able to successfully mount an attack, they push forward. In the last two weeks Ukraine has sent in reserves of some of their best units to try to bolster the flanks. They've performed better in the south, but the Russians continue to make incremental gains in the north. The battle to complete the encirclement of the city has seemed to reach a bit of a standstill over the last few days, but progress continues to be made at various points on the flanks. To me the chief issues have been - a lack of ammunition, particularly artillery shells. Being outnumbered by 4 to 1 or great ratios. The lack of concern for life by the Russian command, which allows them to be more aggressive in their assaults, and also has an effect on morale for Ukrainians who feel like they're mowing down emotionless zombies who keep coming regardless. I also think there's been some degradation of the Ukrainian force as newly mobilized troops dragged off the streets replace former volunteers with prior military service who volunteered at the outbreak of the war, but have since been killed or wounded. Rob Lee and Michael Kofman came back from their trip to Bakhmut, talking to the various people fighting there, with the question of whether Ukraine is still getting the same kind of benefit there they were a couple of months ago. That can't be just them talking about their personal views based on what they've seen. That has to be a reflection in part of people who are actually doing the fighting. We've seen the general in charge of ground forces in the area be dismissed by Zelensky with no explanation. We've seen a battalion commander speak up about newly mobilized troops being sent to their death with little training, who was also relieved of his command. There are a lot of signals there that not everyone is 100% on board with the defense of Bakhmut at this point. I have wanted them to pull back for quite some time, for the reasons of geography you've already pointed out in more detail and in a better way than I ever could. But I'm an armchair/video game general. Not a real one. And I don't have access to all the motivations or considerations Zelensky and the military have to balance. Like the troops at the front, I can only hope they have the right idea here, and they come out on top. I guess my biggest issue is I haven't seen a single place along the entire front where Ukraine has managed to push back against the Russians once they take some territory. I can only assume that's on purpose, but from the point of view of an observer, I sure would like it better if I saw more effective Ukraine counter attacks on the advancing Russian forces. I think for many of us on this thread and around the world, a lot of our hopes are being invested in the upcoming Ukrainian counter offensive they've been preparing for now for quite some time. A lot rides on its success, frankly. Again, thank you for the effort you put into those maps. I greatly appreciate it.
  23. Louisville out for revenge from the volleyball championship. It would be a shame to lose this in Austin with Stanford eliminated. Turnovers and the free throw line killing them so far.
  24. More like if the US invaded Canada or Mexico, but I get your point. This isn’t some faraway country. This is a next door neighbor with antiquated weapon systems for the most part other than a few key Western systems. Honestly it’s been an embarrassment for the Russian military as a whole as well as their defense industry.
  25. We’re saying the same thing. Amphibious assaults are extremely challenging. These patrol boats aren’t the right tool for that. But they can support an attack against weak points across the river. Also, I still feel like a lot of the Russian troops are under equipped, poorly trained, unmotivated, and if they face an attack across multiple vectors - especially if their lines of communication are cut off - we could see the same kind of widespread panic we saw in Kharkiv. But the main thrust needs to be some kind of successful armored assault along the southern front somewhere. An assault across the river could be successful in conjunction with that, but it won’t be a main thrust. Even hit and run tactics that pin down troops, sow confusion, and call in reinforcements from other areas can be effective. As far as artillery and HIMARS, I think it’s fine to talk about their effectiveness theoretically, but it’s obvious the Ukrainians are in an extreme shell diet at this point. I do not believe the Russians would be making the incremental advances they’re managing along the eastern front if Ukraine had 250,000 shells per month to fire off. Quantity is indeed proving to have at least a limited quality for the Russians in the short term in terms of their willingness to throw away human lives to achieve an objective I am sure the preponderance of incoming shells are going to go to support the main offensive, and everyone else is going to get scraps for the most part.
×
×
  • Create New...