When you say that's the only thing that makes sense, I don't agree with you. Even if they don't recover it there's still benefits to the operation.
First of all, it's an unmanned drone. Way different consequences to bringing it down, even in international waters, than an E-3 surveillance plane with around 17 to 22 crew on board.
Second, right now the US sends these surveillance planes in the area without repercussion. This sends a statement there can be repercussions, we can take these planes down without firing a shot, and we will.
It's obvious to me watching the video they intended to take it down by dumping fuel on it, not by crashing into it.
While it's a step beyond what they've done before, both the Russians and the Chinese have engaged in extremely dangerous intercept flights in the past. Including the recent past. China just came within 20 feet of a US plane in the South China Sea a couple of weeks ago. It's been going on for a while now. That said, I don't recall any circumstances where they were attempting to dump fuel on another aircraft, so this raises the stakes. I don't have a clear idea what the US is going to do in retaliation, especially considering everything they've done in concert with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they're going to have to do something otherwise this will continue.