
SL Xpress
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Sure. It's a major issue. It's also affecting the spring crops for Ukrainian farmers. They'll be dealing with mines in this country for the next decade or two. There's always going to be a chance of Ukrainian forces getting hit by them. I'd go so far as to say a 100% chance. You just hope the damage is limited and mine clearing actions are effective.
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What would it take for Rodney Terry to earn the job?
SL Xpress replied to HookEm's topic in Basketball
Thanks for the civil discussion. I believe that because I think Texas is one of the premier recruiting destinations in every sport they field. They invest in facilities. It's an excellent university. They accept the bare minimum NCAA qualifying scores. They have academic degrees that accommodate student athletes of varying academic levels. The academic support is outstanding. They're willing to compensate handlers, parents, and other third parties for recruiting success, specifically in men's basketball, where it's a necessity. The NIL program is one of the most robust in the country. And it's in Austin, which is extremely difficult for most schools to compete with. For me growing up the NBA for the longest time had only two Longhorn players in the NBA. Johnny Moore and LaSalle Thompson. For over a decade. As of the start of this past NBA season, there were 10, tied for 6th in the country. The last two portal classes have been among the best in the country, if not the best. While Barnes, Smart, and Beard were all very good recruiters, there's still a lowest common denominator. You say Texas isn't a basketball school, and that's true to a point. But it's a recruiting destination. There's a ton of local talent. The UT Longhorn brand is one of the most powerful in college sports. I'd argue it is the most powerful. If the next guy hired is the right coach, then part of being the right coach is he's going to figure out how to bring the talent on campus necessary to compete at the highest level. If he can't he'll get fired. That's how it works. "...I simply do not understand the confidence that firing Terry will result in a "don't worry we will be just fine." You won't see me saying that. To me every coaching hire is a roll of the dice. What I would say is that from my perspective I feel like I know what we're getting in Rodney Terry. Other people have a more open mind, or they're excited about what he's done with this team and so they think he'd be a good fit. I don't think he's a good head basketball coach, and I feel confident that will be shown over the next few years if he's hired. Since that's what I'd believe, I'd prefer to roll the dice with someone else and see if they'll work out, while fully admitting they might not. However, if he makes a deep enough run, the juice is not worth the squeeze. Plus, I'll be grateful to Coach Terry for the memory, and that will keep me warm at night as the performance on the court during his tenure ends up being pretty mediocre. And I'm with you. I hope he wins the whole thing and gets a statue erected in his honor. Maybe recruits a Fab Five in a year or so to go along with it, like Fisher did under similar circumstances. I'm not proud. I certainly don't want him to fail just so I can be right. Anyway, those are my thoughts. I hope that addresses your post. Thank you for the response. -
I would argue that the United States is better at occupations than any other country in the modern world. The southern United States after the civil war. West Germany. Japan. South Korea (a bit of a hybrid, but certainly counts as a success if Vietnam counts as a failure - which it does). Panama isn’t a failed state. I’m not sure what Grenada is, but no news is good news. The truth is there aren’t that many great success stories out there. I’d also argue that both Afghanistan and Iraq we’re doomed to fail as occupations from the start. It wasn’t just that the US was bad at them. It’s like we were purposefully as bad as possible. I remember in the months leading up to the second Gulf War articles coming out in Foreign Affairs describing the complete lack of attention to post war occupation, and how it was going to lead to a disaster. It wasn’t like it was some kind of surprise. Experts in the field publicly predicted it. The problem was there wasn’t the political will in either administration to carry the costs of an effective occupation, while the one they did on the cheap had predictable results. The closest we ever had to a decent approach to occupation was The Surge led by McCain’s efforts in Congress. That still wasn’t enough, but it wa certainly the right idea. The truth is we don’t care about things that happen beyond our borders as a general population, so unless the elites can come to some kind of collaborative understanding without the will of the people involved - which is how we’ve been able to operate as a superpower post World War II in the first place - then large foreign policy objectives are eventually doomed for lack of resources and political will. And now we see DeSantis echoing calls to quit funding Ukraine. Which should be a red flag for where the base is going in regards to this war. Instead of differentiating himself from Trump on this issue he’s decided he can’t win the nomination unless he differentiates on other issues. And he’s probably right. I was texting with one of my closest friends yesterday about the bank closures. He’s in finance. I mentioned $42 billion exited Silicon Valley Bank in one day and his response was “well, that’s how much we send Ukraine in one hour.” He’s definitely always been a part of the evangelical wing of Trump supporters, so it’s obvious to me he’s simply echoing a talking point that’s seen as fact in his circles. Anyway, the main point is that we’ve actually been very good at occupations historically compared to the rest of the world. We just don’t have the political will to do them right any more.
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What would it take for Rodney Terry to earn the job?
SL Xpress replied to HookEm's topic in Basketball
Hiring should be a 10 to 20 year decision. Not a next year decision. If he makes the Elite Eight or Final Four, that’s exactly what it is. But I’m not concerned with the short term impact on recruiting if Texas moves on to someone else. If they’re the right person it won’t matter. If they’re the wrong person it wouldn’t matter, either. If Terry ends up being the wrong guy, all the momentum in the world isn’t going to save him. And if someone else is the right guy, the short term difficulties will be overcome and we’ll be in good shape. -
What would it take for Rodney Terry to earn the job?
SL Xpress replied to HookEm's topic in Basketball
He can recruit. If there’s one thing he’s shown over the course of his career, it’s that he can recruit. I don’t think he’s the wunderkind recruiter some people describe him as, but he’s definitely good. It’s not just convincing, either. He can identify talent and he’s good at establishing relationships. I also don’t think this season’s results demonstrate what you think it does, but reasonable minds can agree to disagree. It will all come out in the wash eventually anyway. I’ll also say that being the head coach is more than simply recruiting and coaching. Can he manage a roster? Can he make good hires? How does he handle tensions in the locker room or among the staff? Maybe he proves to be amazing at it. But there’s nothing he’s shown so far that indicates it. Personally, I don’t think he’s up to the task, but I’ve said that repeatedly. At this point I’m all in on a deep run that secures him the job, and then things will work out from there. One way or another. -
I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. Beard is a complex figure. The man has a moral code. You can tell in the way he behaves and how he communicates to others. I’m not defended him or his perspective, but he has a standard he holds himself and others to. He allowed feelings for someone else alter his behavior in ways he wouldn’t have otherwise. He’s hardly the first. I don’t have sympathy for him because I’m a fan and not a friend. My relationship to him is tied to him being the head figure for my favorite team. I thought he was The One and now he isn’t, and I’m angry and bitter about that. But I don’t consider him incarnate evil or anything. He does need to get his shit together regarding how he acted that night, because whatever circumstances occurred that ended with him in jail for an overnight stay, were absolutely avoidable. And he played the most significant role in that occurring. Being hired by a P5 school this year was as inevitable to me as the sun rising in the east as soon as the charges were dismissed. If it hadn’t been Ole Miss it would have been another school desperate for a winner. While I’m fully convinced UT did the right thing in firing him, I’m unconvinced that once his fiancée sent out a public notice through her attorney he didn’t choke her and she didn’t want him arrested, and the DA chose not to prosecute, that he should be consigned to basketball purgatory forever more. And if that’s the case, then might as well be hired this year. I don’t see much difference, really. He’ll have a microscope on him the rest of his career. He will get no benefit of the doubt regarding inappropriate outbursts of anger with anyone, and especially not with women, and most of all, not with a significant other. The dude is obviously wound tight. I don’t think there’s any question of that. We’ll see if he can get it under control so it doesn’t cost him his career next time. You already mentioned him, but Gillispie is a good example of someone who couldn’t, even if his circumstances are different than Beard’s. And shoot, that guy is still making a very livable wage at Tarleton.
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I'm not quite sure what all this means, but I'll tell you right now Beard is going to win at Ole Miss. Maybe not next year, but maybe. But by year 2 he'll have Ole Miss on a heck of a trajectory, and the SJB Pavilion will be rocking like it never has. Just be resigned to him signing with Kentucky when that job opens up.
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Well, regardless of who is the next coach they'll have their work cut out for them. This is a senior laden roster. If Beard was the coach I wouldn't think twice about it because the dude is a wizard at roster management. But I don't know if the next guy will be anywhere as good. I'm like the zen master in Charlie Wilson's War. "We'll see!"
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Nonetheless, the Cowboys didn't go out and hire someone else after they won the Super Bowl. If people want to think Rodney Terry is a terrific coach based on what they've seen this year, let them. I don't see what harm it causes. None of us are making the hiring decision. It will play out over time. I hope he retires a legend and the court is named after him. Barring that, I hope he helps to create some great memories before he's canned. I'm grateful to him for this year. I hope for a deep run. Let's see what this group can accomplish together, and by that I'm including Terry as well.
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We'd never need the artillery shell use Ukraine is utilizing. We have aircraft, missiles, and helicopters - and armed drones - to do all the heavy lifting, way more effectively, that the Ukrainians are using artillery for. And we'd use the mobility of our forces to destroy the means of the enemy to effectively fire artillery back. There was no way for the US or Europe to foresee this level of artillery shell usage. Not based on past experience. It's not how the western countries - the US specifically - would carry out their mission.
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We're far from empty, but I'd argue we've already been tapping into our emergency reserve as it is. I've been meaning to make a longer post on it for a week or so, but the tl:dr version of it is that neither the US nor Europe are geared to produce a bunch of artillery shells, and ramping up that production takes a lot of time and work. We went all in on investing in technology and expertise that allows us to establish air superiority and to use mobility, initiative down the chain of command, and special forces force multipliers to defeat the enemy. And, of course, all the wars have been very much asynchronous warfare following the Chinese invasion of Korea. The war in Ukraine does not allow for the establishment of air superiority by either side, and in any event Soviet/Russian doctrine has always relied heavily on artillery shelling as a principle part of conducting warfare, mostly because of its cheap cost. Especially with the way they conduct it, which is laying out squares and simply bombarding from one square to the next indiscriminately rather than relying on adjusting fire or precision of any kind. The Ukraine defense minister has said that the Ukraine army can be effective in launching 360,000 shells per month. That would be the ideal. They've asked for about 60% of that, or 250,000 shells per month. My guess is they know they won't get that amount, but maybe it would help get something closer to it than farther away. US industry produces about 14,000 155mm shells per month. The pentagon has already indicated plans to increase that to 40k per month this summer, and to eventually get it to 90k per month in a couple of years. That's not actually for Ukraine. That's simply to replenish the loss in reserves from supplying Ukraine. It's also an acknowledgement that artillery is more important than Western doctrine has made it out to be in conditions that are less than ideal for establishing air superiority. Europe's production is even more stymied. There has been talk to increase European 155mm shell production to 25,000 per month, and it's been a struggle. The latest talks led by badass Estonia, are talking about creating a separate funding of $1 billion Euros dedicated to purchasing shells and expanding production. The way they're trying to frame it is that this would be a voluntary fund, so that countries that are against its creation would not have to fund it, but it would still allow the other countries to band together within the EU framework to get it done. That has hair all over it because that sets a precedent, but it's slowly but steadily moving forward. But while getting the funding mechanism in place is the hardest part, the logistics also have hair all over it, because the way the European defense industry works is that different parts of its production are located in multiple countries, for political purposes. I don't know exactly how that works specifically in regards to 155mm shells, because I'm not a subject matter expert. I'm simply relaying what I'm reading from people who are. Estonia has put forward a proposal to send 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine right now, but that hasn't gone anywhere so far. Bottom line, the west doesn't have the production capacity to meet Ukraine's needs in this regard, and there's not a lot of hope on the horizon for it to get better. And believe it or not, that's the tl:dr version of it. Well, at least my version. I'm obviously not so good with the tl:dr thing.
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Must watch interview with Madisen Skinner. This is really worth your time if you're a fan of the program at all:
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I don't see it as problematic as you do. If the scenario doesn't fit making depositors whole, don't make them whole. That wasn't the case here. Collecting premiums to insure all deposits in the entire banking system doesn't sound like a good policy to me.
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Less flexibility is the downside. I don't know what future events transpire, but I don't agree that it's necessary to put it into writing that all deposits are insured. Could be at some point it's seen as helpful to not insure all the deposits, but once it's the law that option is no longer available.
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What would it take for Rodney Terry to earn the job?
SL Xpress replied to HookEm's topic in Basketball
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Very few, actually. Most coaches that leave Texas don't do anything at all. Mack Brown at North Carolina has done better than most. Richard Quick and Mick Haley are the two I always cite as the exceptions. But neither one was fired. I guess Mack Brown wasn't either, technically, but he was definitely forced out before he wanted to go. Obviously Shaka Smart did extremely well at Marquette this year, but a coach in basketball is always measured by their performance in the tournament. It's why I don't think of Barnes as doing a whole lot better at Tennessee than at Texas. He's done pretty well in the regular season, but his tournament record in Knoxville has not been good. I have a feeling he's on the hot seat right now. With a #5 seed it would do him some good to make it to the second weekend. But the overwhelming number of coaches who leave Texas do not experience a lot of success.
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I guess I feel like there's a lot of that that goes on. It's very expensive to cover peak events, which is why Black Swan events are so dangerous. You can prepare for a certain amount of flooding, but it's too expensive to prepare for 100 year events. You can prepare for a certain energy usage surge, but not for the most extreme. You can create a transportation network or a bandwidth network, or a communications network that handles excessive demand, but not extreme amounts. It would be too big of a drain towards an efficient economy to collect premiums to cover all deposits. But there's sufficient premiums to cover this incident, particularly if it prevents anything further from happening - whether something further would have happened or not. Why risk it if it's not necessary? Especially if it could be harmful in a way it doesn't have to be. You say it's a dangerous policy, and I will agree that's a legitimate point of view. I don't want you to think I'm dismissing it or think it has no merit. But from my point of view it's not necessary, and actually sends a harmful signal if you put it in writing. To be fair, the federal government IS insuring the whole banking system, if not every deposit made there. If a decision is made in the future not to cover the uninsured portion of deposits, then hopefully the circumstances warrant it, whatever they might be. But removing that option doesn't make sense to me. But I'm grateful to have a civil sharing of different points of view, regardless. I'm glad to hear your thinking on it, and appreciate it.
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I'm surprised Baltimore isn't just considered a suburb of DC.
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I think it's fairer to say there is no bailout for the owners of SVB. I don't know if this is being advocated for elsewhere. I haven't followed this on other social media outside of this forum. I have read a bunch of articles, but that's about it. It seems like it has been in places. I do know not one person has advocated for it on here. I think my main thing on making depositor's whole is I don't feel like the juice was going to be worth the squeeze. Whatever limited market lesson is taught by not making depositor's whole is not worth the uncertainty introduced into the system. To me it was worth giving depositors immediate access to their money simply to calm markets around the globe and not let this thing become more than what it is. I understand that's not everyone's perspective, but it is mine. I'm not a fan of making FDIC insurance an unlimited amount, even if what is happening in the case of SVB and Signature is sending that market signal. Once you make it the law it sends a much different signal. Maybe there's a future instance where it's more appropriate not to make depositor's whole. I don't think this was it, but maybe there's a circumstance in the future where that is true.
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Or maybe it all works out. But I don't understand why you do that when it takes relatively little resources to restore a semblance of calm by making that money available now. People want this whole thing to be a lesson. It certainly should be. It's a lesson in the dangers for a bank of having so much of your deposits tied up in such a small fraction of your clients. It's a lesson in how quickly money can be moved out of banks. It's a lesson in the dangers of banks holding so many assets in long term bonds in a time of rising interest rates. But I don't agree that we should be sending a big fat lesson to depositors all around the country that the money they have in the banking system - even if it's above the $250k FDIC insurance threshold - is at risk. There were also international implications for this, which massive reassurance now heads off at the pass. All of this seems so obvious as the right move. I'm not trying to convince anyone that their point of view is wrong. I couldn't even if I wanted to. But I do not share that sentiment and I'm glad the government doesn't either.
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It did come true. Just like I said it would.
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You poor bastard. I understood what you meant.
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