SL Xpress

The truth is for Ukraine to get the Donbas back will require a regime change. Either a transition that's so chaotic that the military has no clear orders, or one in which military units are needed for internal conflict, or a transition where the new regime changes course. But I do think they can get Crimea back. I don't know that they will, but the possibility exists in my mind (which would be mildly ironic, because I'm unconvinced a significant part of the population in Crimea actually wants to be a part of Ukraine - it's certainly not clear from polls). You talk about voluntary withdrawal, and what I would say is that Kherson represented a voluntary withdrawal. It's not like Ukrainian forces went from house to house in street fighting. They made it impossible to supply the forces there, and that left some valuable Russian troops in a precarious position. Rather than lose them, Kremlin ordered a withdrawal. A voluntary withdrawal, so to speak. If Ukraine cuts off the land bridge to Crimea, blows up the Kerch Bridge to the point of making it completely inoperable, and manages to threaten any supplies by ship or air - which is all doable, if extremely challenging - it will put all kinds of pressure on Russia to withdraw their forces or have them completely routed. I don't understand what that means for Sevastopol, because the naval base there is almost certainly the #1 asset in all of the occupied territories, and is the major reason for the little green men operation in Crimea in the first place. The problem with the eastern portion of Donbas is that it cannot actually be encircled without an invasion across the Russian border. It's why limited wars are always so farcical and why the Powell Doctrine was just plain common sense. When you limit what your military is able to do for political purposes - and specifically if you don't allow your military to chase opposing forces across a border - you automatically make an enemy intransigent on some level. (that said, there ARE legitimate political reasons not to want to expand a conflict - hence Truman firing MacArthur, as an example - they just don't serve the military very well in trying to obtain victory). This has always been akin to a religious war for Putin, and by extension, the rest of the country. Look at the rhetoric coming out of not only propaganda organs, but common citizens on the street. They're often in lockstep. Ukrainians are our brothers who are ruled by Nazis/Banderistas. This is a war for the future of civilization, and only Russia can save humanity from ourselves. The wicked, demonic, corrupt West, with their decadent values want to wipe Russia off the face of the planet. People talk about how if Russia suffers more losses the common people of Russia will turn on the government. Personally, I think the Russian tolerance for losses is much greater than folks like that are willing to admit. It's not a universal feeling. Look at how many fled from mobilization. But the appetite for fighting among those who won't actually be going into combat seems quite high. So assuming Ukrainian victories on the field - which is not a 100% assumption at this point - eventually they'll push Russian forces towards Donetsk, where instead of these huge front lines that can be exploited, you have a much more dense area to defend with resupply protected by the border. So in that sense they can't be expelled by force. But neither can the Ukrainians. Hence this attritional warfare against a clock, with one side needing the West to continue to be Ukraine's willing manufacturing base, and the other needing Putin to live longer than the West's willingness to support the Ukrainian side. And both sides wanting to make progress towards achieving more territorial gains.

More Leopard 1s sitting around a warehouse in Belgium. A little bit of a crazy story. Dude bought Belgium's stock of Leopard 1s back in 2014 for tens of thousands of euros apiece, and now during a war is trying to sell them for $500,000 apiece, and the somewhat hot but slightly unrealistic Belgium defense minister is saying he's being an opportunist. Uh, yeah. That's exactly what he's doing.

A video from Ukrainian pilot with an emotional plea for F16s: Here's an associated article from Financial Times discussing whether Ukraine needs F16s or their equivalent, along with some pretty pointed pleas from the Ukrainian pilot featured in the video: https://www.ft.com/content/bdcba1a3-9c25-445e-9885-cf6f0b126b7f Juice said the F-16 had better modern sensors, avionics and weaponry than any of the planes in Ukraine’s fleet, and could be used with missiles that have a longer range than enemy fire, helping to counter Russia’s superior jets. Ukraine could not afford to wait because it was losing its best pilots in combat. “If we wait six months more, we will get to the moment when we will have only reservist grandpas, not young pilots with good knowledge, good training.”

This Reuters article cites "dozens" available for reconditioning. This is in addition to the 14 Leopard 2A6's Germany has also committed to sending. Also, it indicates they want to send the 15 Gepard anti air vehicles that were in Qatar for the World Cup to Kyiv - which have been so effective against the Persian Shahed drones - along with the ammunition. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-approves-leopard-1-delivery-ukraine-talks-with-qatar-over-gepards-2023-02-02/ With Russia being forced to deploy so much of their armor coming from storage in various states of readiness, I would think the Leopard 1s could still provide a tremendous boon, especially if they're being augmented by the 2A6's. Even just using them to defend against possible Russian offensives towards Kyiv and Kharkiv, while using the more modern tanks on the offensive in the east and south would be wonderful. Strange vacillations regarding fighter jets. UK recently stated uncategorically no to Tornados and F35s because they're too complicated, and then today Ben Wallace the defense minister says he's not ruling out sending fighter jets in the future. I cannot imagine under any scenario the F35s being deployed. But I'm glad they're not being so definitive today. Just like the Leopard 2s were the obvious primary choice for a main battle tank, the F16s are the obvious choice for a fighter jet. They're the most produced. The most countries have them. They're about to be outdated. They have an incredible array of suites they can be attached with. They're a single pilot fighter as opposed to the F14 or F15, for a country that can't possibly have a surfeit of capable pilots. But just as with sending the Challenger 2s, sending Tornados would be a wonderful first step for everyone else. Same with the French, who have the Mirage and Rafale. Very capable aircraft, but simply don't have the same abundance or usage across as many NATO nations as the F16. The timings obviously not right for various reasons, but I'm hopeful pilots are being trained for when the go signal is given.

Chris Beard was extremely active in every recruitment, even moreso than most coaches. That said, I know for a fact Terry was a big part of the communications with Tyrese Hunter. I don’t know what it means for Donewald to be responsible for recruiting from the portal. Could be he was the one who sent out the initial message to all potential targets. But I feel quite confident Texas would have landed every one of their portal targets whether Donewald had been on staff or not. Donewald’s expertise was/is in player development and international connections. And the offense this year. But Beard bragged about him as his best player development guy with some frequency.

Gerry has a great relationship with Terry. Always has. He had a good relationship with Beard until that was choked away. He’ll have a good relationship with the next guy, whether it’s Terry or someone else. He’s developed a strong network. He’s passionate about what he does. He’s specifically passionate about basketball, although he’s made more of his career out of covering football recruiting. I’m sure you’re right that he’s tossing it out there to generate discussion. But the truth is the various stakeholders have to be having some of the same conversations. Terry’s not going to get the job no matter what. And they’re not going to go after someone else if he wins the national championship. So where along that continuum is the decision point? Im sure it’s different for each person. Then you get into who is the loudest and strongest advocate. If Eltife for example makes some kind of decision like he did with Sarkisian, everyone else is going to fall in line. But there are some big money guys (not billionaires, but mid 9 digit guys) who are really passionate about supporting the basketball team, and have been for more than a couple of decades. They’re going to have a voice as well. Especially considering the next hire would likely be a lot more expensive and harder to acquire, with more uncertainty, than Beard was at the time. It seems like a legitimate conversation topic, to me at least. Whether it’s a signal of some kind of inside scoop or not.

I did not realize compelling was a synonym for terrifying. Interesting speculation about the prisoners being given drugs prior to battle. I would find it more surprising if they didn't. Battling 200 soldiers with 20 men over a 10 hour time period, shooting enemies and they just keep coming, watching them step over piles of dead bodies of the already slain, feeling like you lost sight of a flank and they ended up surrounding what remained of your squad, out of ammunition, out of grenades, and then they retreat. That's...insane. This war will be viewed in hindsight, regardless of the outcome. They all are. Like the end result was somewhat predetermined. But they are not. I wish I could somehow magically impart a sense of urgency on the west to provide even more advanced weaponry. It's very possible things are going on behind the scenes to help get Ukrainian pilots into F16s or their equivalent. It's not like there could be some kind of huge base of Ukrainian fighter pilots to draw from, and everyone pulled away from duty has to have an impact on the combat readiness of whatever air force they have left. But I'm reading plenty of accounts of Russia being more effective with their combined arms in places, in particular their fighter jets being able to make some impact, when they hadn't been for a long time. And the Ukrainian pilots sound like they're pretty much sitting ducks out there now, when in the advance towards Kherson they were actually able to maintain tactical air superiority at times. I'm grateful for the GLSDB HIMARs munitions. Hopefully they're as effective as we hope. If they're not, or the supply of them is inadequate, I do hope we move forward quickly with ATACMS. I wonder if the lack of capacity for production and the uncertain date for replacement with the updated precision missiles is a factor in not supplying them? I know the standard party line is the fear of being used for attacks in Russia, which if that's the fear, seems entirely legitimate given their range. But I wonder if there are any other factors at play. Well, Russia looks like they're going to launch some kind of major offensive soon (within a month or so), so we'll see how it goes. It seems apparent to me the armor they'll be using will consist of a great deal pulled out of storage, but it was their lack of combined arms that was the major issue last year, not the quality of armor. Given their command and political structure, there's zero chance their forces are suddenly more flexible and can take initiative at the squad/platoon level, but if they simply don't leave their armor naked while going on the offensive it could make a big difference, especially if their air superiority ends up being more decisive than it was last year. My hope is that their morale overall is such that at the first sign of things going wrong many of their units simply breakdown entirely in effectiveness.

Well, the truth is I don’t get any say regardless. CDC will have the strongest voice in the room, but he’s good at getting stakeholders on board when making a major decision so there’s a general consensus on the type of investment being made. I’m absolutely positive whether Texas goes with Terry or looks in another direction it’s going to be a decision a number of people will weigh in on, none of whom will be me. What’s clear to me is that trying to hit another home run a la Beard a) might not be achievable b) if it is will almost certainly be more expensive than Beard was and c) probably won’t be as ideal a fit. The better the season Terry has the more impetus there will be to make him the permanent guy. Most fans are going to be fine with that and don’t see a big issue. I’ve felt like Cassandra on the topic of Texas sports - specifically football and basketball - on multiple occasions. Right now this feels like another one. I’m not doing anyone any favors by expressing my opinion on the issue, but I can’t help myself. Hopefully it will only come out in streaks of posts and then I’ll return to radio silence so people can simply enjoy the team and the job Terry is doing, rather than being irritated by me expressing my convictions on Terry’s ultimate shortcomings.

I'm curious what the Austrian president is going to say since the Hungarian and Austrian defense ministers made a joint statement neither country would be providing arms to Ukraine in an effort to avoid escalation. https://www.newsweek.com/austria-hungary-weapons-military-aid-ukraine-1778151 Also, fuck Hungary and Austria right up the ass.

BBC article briefly talking about impressions from the frontlines, and Russians employing better combined arms tactics: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64455123

I love that article. I wish I could give it a dozen likes. Thank you very much for posting it.

Spain sending 4 to 6 Leopard 2 A4 tanks. These are not as advanced as the A6 models Poland and Germany are allegedly planning on sending. It's a disappointing number, frankly. At one point I had read they were thinking about sending 51 out of storage. Hopefully this is simply a first batch. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-send-up-six-leopard-2a4-tanks-ukraine-el-pais-2023-02-01/

I'm really glad you shared. That's literally a cool story. No need to diminish it at all.

bbcrussian has an article they call a long read - it's about half as long as my standard post, so I'm not sure what they're talking about - going over some details about how Russian prisoners are recruited into Wagner. Some of the more interesting snippets: "At the end of December, John Kirby, representative of the US National Security Council, put the number even higher, saying the US believed that 40,000 out of 50,000 Wagner mercenaries fighting in Ukraine were prisoners." __________________________________________ "“Prigozhin told us: ‘When you’re pardoned in six months, you’ll go home, reoffend, and end up back in jail. Then I’ll come back for you. It’ll be a long war, at least 10 years. The army is losing. We’re the last hope. This is World War Three. The whole world’s against us!’” _________________________________________ "Alexander Paramzin was convicted of murdering his baby son. The court heard that he was motivated by a “hostile personal relationship with his partner.” Ivan Tomilin, killed his brother with an axe. Vasily Svinshchev beat his own mother to death. Sergey Molodtsov, 46, was buried with honours in his home town of Serov, in the Urals. His coffin was covered with a Russian flag and a guard of honour stood at his graveside. An obituary published by the local authorities said Molodtsov was a creative man who had worked in a jewelery workshop and loved life. What it did not say was that in 2017 Molodtsov received 11.5 years in prison for kicking his retired mother to death. Former security guard Yevgeny Losev, 23, from Yaroslavl region, was buried without fanfare. In 2019 he set fire to a house with homeless people in it, for money. Two people died and he was given a 14-year jail sentence." _________________________________________ https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/criminals-wagner-fighting-in-ukraine

Here's a translation from Dmitri from a Russian describing how Ukraine special operators are working to isolate fighting groups in specific encounters: BTW, I'm going to be sad when we pass on to the next page. I find myself mildly obsessed with @Gatorubet's pic of Kate Levchcuk and her obvious BPD. She has crazy written all over her. Count me in.

His strength is definitely recruiting. I don't feel like he's the recruiting wizard others seem to think, but he's certainly a B+/A- sort at worst. He's exactly what someone like Beard needs in that role to be successful in bringing in talent. There's no doubt in my mind recruiting would take a dip from the Mitchells/Morrises/Hollands/Johnsons, but that is the aspect of program management he's going to be best at. If he's not retained as the head coach, he would be a huge asset as an assistant for whoever did take the job, just like he was for Beard. I don't know how realistic that would be, but that would be ideal, IMO.

I don't know. That is a bit of a cool story. Were you on the team? From your post it sounds like you are a former student, but not necessarily even a student at the time of the run. It doesn't matter. I was just wondering.

@MotownHorn Russ Springmann recruited Kevin Durant. Springmann was actually the first coach to give Durant an offer, as unbelievable as that sounds. He was instrumental in bringing Durant to Austin. Like, literally, as in we don't get a visit from Durant if Springmann hadn't been so successful at pursuing him and developing a relationship with the people around him. Chris Beard is the lead recruiter for every player we recruited under him. He's active in a way that few other head coaches are. Not to say Terry gets no credit, because he does. I'd also add Hunter in there. Terry has been the point man for nearly every transfer we've brought in the last two years. But Barnes allowed more independence and was less involved in different ways than Beard. Terry was the guy who brought the players down from Canada. So the Tristan Thompsons, Corey Josephs, et al were on him. Texas played at a much faster pace to start the season. That's a strange take. Edit: BTW, one of my favorite recruitments by Terry was Dexter Pittman. He was willing to go to bat for that guy when not everyone would have. Then Todd Wright and Pittman put in the work to reshape his body. It's one of Terry's recruitments I appreciated the most, because he went out on a limb for a player that he didn't have to, and helped change that kid's life trajectory. Also, there was a huge anti Texas sentiment in those gyms. A lot of it directed at Barnes. Terry never flinched, and loudly stood up for Barnes on every occasion. I understand in many ways why Beard valued him so much as a member of the staff.

Frank Martin made it to the Final Four in 2017 with South Carolina in his 5th season. He coached five more seasons at USC, never reaching the postseason again. I consider that pretty much a worst case scenario. As down on Rodney Terry as I am, if he's able to get this team to a Final Four, that would be magical. There's a lot of bad times afterwards I'd put up with and still say, "worth it." This team doesn't have nearly the amount of NBA talent that some of our other teams have had in the past 20 years. Then you add in the whole deal with Chris Beard. A Final Four would be a season for the ages. If they didn't keep him under that scenario something is wrong with how we approach sports in this athletic department. I don't think that's the case. I still believe Terry would ultimately fail as the head coach at Texas, but at that point I'd be like, "doesn't matter, had sex."

I watched that, but ended up liking this video better. Talks about a unit that went in with a successful aggressive attack, only to find themselves surrounded and had to fight their way out:

I wonder what the atmosphere is like in Budapest. I honestly think the Ukrainians might be the bravest people on this planet. They're like the embodiment of the best parts of what we think of Russians, without all the worst parts that come from being Russian. The same kind of I Don't Give A Fuck, but without the impulse to completely lose their humanity. On some kind of primal level, I really need for them to win this war. I wish I could somehow do something way more substantial for them than what I've done. I'd sincerely give my life if I thought it would make a difference. The biggest fuck you ever would be to come out of this conflict and set up a similar disparity in quality of life between Ukraine and Russia that existed (still exists, really) between West and East Germany, or North and South Korea. If/when they get their original territory back, they have so much natural resources at their disposal, plenty of access to the sea, fertile land, a hard working populace, an earned reputation in programming. Ukraine could be an amazing success story if this thing can go their way. Then just have lots and lots and lots of babies with Ukrainian women to avert the looming population disaster.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant is the big one. Still shelling in the area. IAEA is there. If you want to worry about something, it's a relevant thing to worry about. To me until Ukraine is able to mount a significant enough counter offensive that Russian forces in the area have to withdraw completely, it's going to be something to worry about. And that won't happen until the new armor commitments arrive on scene and the UAF is competent at using them in combined arms attacks. With Russia reorganized it's going to be harder to achieve the kind of victory they did in the Kharkiv Oblast, although Kherson was a fairly pitched battle the whole way, but still considered a success. Anyway, nothing truly new about it. I haven't heard about the power getting cut lately. I always consider no news about the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant to be good news, because you know there is still a significant Russian force there using the plant as cover so they can't be attacked. The workers there are still working under inhumane conditions. The IAEA has to be careful about how critical they are regarding conditions or they'll be kicked out altogether. It's not good, Bob.

I cannot get that Financial Times visual story to load. I saw where Ukraine is still pushing France for Leclerc tanks even with the Leopard, Challenger, and Abrams pledges. I can't say I understand it, but I did think it was interesting. Also, France has already stated they see no red line regarding their fighter jets. As opposed to Britain which is citing technical difficulties in training Ukrainians on either the Tornado or F35. I feel like the F35 will never happen anyway. Love more Caesar's, for sure.

That's exactly it. And if he's hired, he's going to be offered a highly competitive annual salary. You can't even realistically sign a coach to a one year contract in college coaching. It would absolutely knee cap him in recruiting and in hiring staff.