SL Xpress

I didn’t know that. You’re certainly right about that. I have to admit to a lack of interest in Australian defense procurement analysis, so I’m glad he’s not going into it. I will say Dominion 5 is a different sort of fantasy 4x. Not surprising a defense procurement analyst would be interested in it. Thank you for the clarification. Sincerely. I’ve really enjoyed his PowerPoints regardless of his qualifications. They are extremely dense, but very layman friendly. He’s gifted in putting together the information in a compelling way that makes sense.

Yes. The point still remains I think he has plenty of deserved fucking to go in his lifetime as far as I'm concerned. Next time I'll be more literal.

Speak for yourself.

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant. When the current leader dying is the only way to get a transition of power, it's extremely relevant. No one is saying that Russia will somehow change. But there won't be any change in current policy until there's regime change. Even if the system doesn't change. I remember in the 90s I went to an investment meeting at a house in River Oaks hosted by a family friend. The whole conversation was about the opportunities in Russia. I told them then that we were in a type of Weimar Republic era for Russia and that soon they would fall back to a strong central leader who was likely repressive and autocratic because that's what the Russian people are comfortable with. I was decidedly unwelcome and was told I was a doomsday sort. At the time I thought we would have been better off with a sort of Marshall Plan for Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, but in hindsight it's clear it would have simply ended up in the hands of criminal bosses. I remember hosting some judges as part of my Rotary group who had come over to see how the US justice system worked, and how it implemented a rule by law. I really enjoyed meeting with all of them. About a half dozen of them. They were here for about 3 weeks. We met with judges at the municipal, JOP, district, and federal level. Now I look back and think about what a big waste of time it was. In any case, the death of Putin is not irrelevant. Thinking that it's a magic wand and suddenly Russia becomes a liberal state based on rule of law is a fantasy. That part is absolutely true. To change the Japanese and German systems - and make no mistake, both of those cultures still think they're better than anyone else, and their predatory nature is still exhibited in their economic export oriented policies - required long occupation periods. Japan had literally never been conquered before. Being conquered (or not being conquered, for that matter) changes a nation's collective consciousness in ways that few things can. Look at how much the UK changed from the Vikings, William of Orange, the Normans. I can't imagine how different the United States would be after emerging from some kind of foreign occupation. In any case, no one is going to be occupying Russia, so that's flat out.

I mean, it's not funny. It's not. It's really not. Seriously, nothing funny about a Russian propaganda channel sending a woman reporter to cover the war and her being gang raped by the Russian troops there. Maybe if they added pillage it would sound like it was a bit of knockabout fun. It just seems so par for the course. Send the fucking jets and ATACMS already.

Another update from Bakhmut. He indicates in here they received around 5k in reinforcements (a brigade plus a regiment). Could be additional forces. Could be some kind of rotation. The fighting sounds ridiculously intense. Watching the maps on various services it seems like Russia continues to make progress in the far north and far south of the city. It's amazing Ukraine continues to hold there despite Russia throwing everything they've got at them.

shadow_operative: I don't want to fall for this again. You promise you're not going to pull the ball away this time, Lucy? You promise! Texas basketball: ...

I mean, we're all dying. That's the sense in which I mean it for the most part. He's 70 years of age. Stalin was 74 when he was poisoned. I don't foresee some kind of transition of power until that happens. Do you? I certainly don't see Russia suddenly giving up this fight until that happens. This is not the kind of guy you send to the equivalent of St. Helena. So my expectation is this war continues on the Russian side until he's dead.

I've posted this guy's stuff (Perun) on this thread before. He's basically a civilian in Australia who started his youtube video making guides for a couple of video games: Dominion 5, which is an extremely complicated low poly fantasy based 4x game, and Phoenix Point, which is an X-Com type tactical strategy game. I've never watched a single video from him on either subject. He transitioned to analysis of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, starting on March 5, 2022. He's now made 50 videos - basically one per week - covering the conflict. They're powerpoints of his research on various topics surrounding the conflict, the majority of which I'd describe as detailing the contributions to why Russian has been so inept. This one is designed to take more of a devil's advocate position, based on some kind of poll he put up when asking about future videos, where he details what strengths Russia brings to the table, both now and into the future. It's about an hour long, although you can run it at 1.25 speed and still take in everything pretty easily. He is good about citing his sources, and it's clear he does a ton of research, so don't let his background in video games prejudice you towards him as much as it did me at first. The clearest conclusion one can come to - and it's absolutely a part of his aim at producing this particular video - is the importance of Western nations to provide long range missiles and fighter jets. The sooner the better. Here's the video:

Representative governments by their nature are not going to be proactive. It's difficult to get credit for solving a problem that doesn't exist yet. It's more likely you'll get blamed for spending money that shouldn't have been spent. On the other hand, if you wait until there's a full blown crisis and then folks step in with the full might of the government to solve things, you have a different story. That's how you get people reelected! It should also be noted that no one in the US is going to win an election based on what they did in Ukraine. Not a single person. I've seen references on twitter by Ukrainian or European centered social media people friendly to Ukraine about how the US electorate will reward politicians if there's a victory prior to 2024 elections, which we know - or at least should know - is completely farcical. I'll admit I'm a single issue voter right now the same way some folks are about gun rights, abortion, LGBTQ+, climate change, lower taxes, prayer in school, what have you. Are you or are you not in favor of maximum support for Ukraine, and where are you on that continuum? But I try to engage as many people as possible in conversations regarding Ukraine, simply trying to gauge their interest, and the truth is there isn't any to speak of. This is not a new dynamic. Toqueville described it well in the mid 19th century, and we've never changed. Because of geography, resources, culture, etc. the US is isolationist by nature. It's only because the Democrats controlled both houses for about 50 years and so there was a broad amount of cross party collaboration to get things done, and the elites in this country decided it was important in all kinds of ways for the US to be the leader of the free world, that we're reluctantly in the position we're in, even if foreign policy were determined by direct popular vote it's doubtful we'd have a single military base outside our borders. My goodness, 99% of the people I talk to have no idea who the current president of Mexico is (Obrador), and we're in Texas. A good 90% can't even make a guess at Trudeau as the leader of Canada. They certainly have no concept of a parliamentary system, or what party he represents, or even what other choices there might be. (I should make it clear I'm grateful for this forum and others like it I participate on, with people who have a rabid interest in these issues - but we do not represent a powerful voting bloc, I'm afraid) To me it's a clear choice between good and evil. Ukraine can win this fight with the full support of the west without sending a single NATO troop in. I realize many of us feel frustrated with the shortcomings of the support, but I also look back at how I felt in 2014 when the West REALLY fubared things, and I'm grateful we've at least done as much as we have, because it's been significant, even if not enough. I'm scared the folks who tried to sabotage McCarthy's speaker position are going to be successful in hampering support for Ukraine, but I guess we'll see. At this point they need fighter jets and long range missiles. They need a robust resupply of the equipment being given. You can't just send 300 main battle tanks and then Pontius Pilate your way out the door. You have to keep sending them to replace the ones destroyed, and help repair the ones that can be repaired (thank you Poland for the new massive repair installation at the border!). Same thing with the infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. They'll need more ground based air defenses and the missiles that go with them. Ukraine had an unusual number of S-300 platforms to start the war because of their position in the Soviet Union on the far western border, but they have no way to resupply those systems with more missiles. They need even more western platforms so the west can supply even more missiles to arm them. There is a clock ticking on this conflict. On the one hand, can Ukraine and the West sustain the fight until Russia has a transition fight because of Putin's death. On the other, can Russia sustain this fight until the West loses the appetite to support them. You look at the poll numbers, and outside of the Baltic States, Poland, Finland, Sweden, and a few others, it's not as high a level of support as I'd like to see. Especially in Germany. I feel fortunate the prime minister of Italy, Meroni, seems as supportive of Ukraine as she is, since the Italians in general or in her party don't seem to feel the same. I'd love to see the land bridge to Crimea cut off. I don't know how realistic that is militarily, but that would be a huge boon to Ukraine achieving their objectives, IMO.

Shoot, we all have to have dreams. I take no offense. That said, if that actually transpires, I hope for fiery car crashes in your future. Nothing personal.

I just think you’re looking for things to worry about. I’m not saying China won’t ever make a play for Taiwan, but the truth is they don’t have the amphibious or force projection capability to do it right now. Taiwan doesn’t have any nice soft beaches to form a beach head, and China has never participated in a successful modern amphibious landing in their history. It doesn’t mean they can’t, but as I already said, they don’t even have the capability at the moment. They also have some similar issues to the Russians in the sense that political loyalty is valued over competence. There’s an officer from the communist party embedded in every unit with a different command and promotion reporting structure to the rest of the military. The armed forces swear allegiance to the party, not to their country. Their units are getting waxed in skirmishes with the Indians for goodness sakes. I’m not saying China is no threat. They’re a huge threat on a number of axes. I am saying you’re overestimating the likelihood of an imminent invasion. if you think the nationalist rhetoric coming out of China is something new, you haven’t been paying attention. They’re a proud people with arguably the richest cultural history on the planet who feel like they were shunted into irrelevance by the western powers for a couple of hundred years and now are excited to flex what they perceive as their rightful stature in the world, while the US continues to plot to hem them in. Which isn’t entirely inaccurate. Unlike Iran, they’re also doing a great job at expanding their influence, both at their border and across the globe, through trade, bribery, and the promise of an alignment outside of the West's auspices. This is not a country dead set at entering WWIII. It’s antithetical to their aspirations. They want to bring about a world order where they’ve displaced the US at the top of the pyramid. They consider it as inevitable, actually. But they don’t see it being through armed conflict as much as having the ability to project military might as a means to an end. Make no mistake. Taiwan has existential issues for sure. But to me what has transpired with Ukraine pushes that crisis farther away rather than making it more imminent. Honestly, if you want to be concerned, look for China to start exploiting resources in the South China Sea that is claimed by other countries before worrying about Taiwan, because I feel quite confident that is a much more imminent flash point. And all that said, Israel striking targets inside Iran won’t change the Chinese calculus. It’s an entirely separate issue which will or won’t come to a head regardless of how many times the Israeli Air Force shows Iran they can’t do anything to stop them. You also say the US is distracted, but Ukraine has been the best bang for the buck anyone in the US could ask for. Other than the HIMARS every major piece of equipment is outdated and pulled out of storage. Iraq and Afghanistan were distractions. Ukraine is basically a hobby for the US military. It’s not even a side gig at this point.

There’s a guy who knew how to do domestic violence the right way. That guy didn’t have to wait around for charges to get dropped. Play some Phil Collins in the background for a nice, say, invisible touch.

I don’t agree. I guess I’m not a reasonable person. Iran has isolated themselves in the region with their attempt to export their revolution. I don’t understand how India and China suffering through their waves of Covid is adding a strain on world affairs on top of the Ukraine war. South Korea going nuclear sounds like smart policy to me since the powers that be haven’t been able to do anything about North Korea’s nuclear weapons. How protected would you feel by the US nuclear umbrella if you were Korean? And I should make something clear. I consider the chances of there being a future use of nuclear weapons at 100%, and anyone who thinks differently is kidding themselves. To me we should be acting as a species acknowledging that reality. At this point it’s an 80 year old technology with too few consequences for its development and too many advantages for its possession. And the more folks who have access to it, the more likely its used. Extrapolate that out to forever and it leads to a 100% certainty it will be used at some point, possibly exterminating life on this planet. Or at the very least making the planet a lot less livable. To me the biggest lesson to be learned internationally from the Russian invasion of Ukraine is if you have possession of nuclear weapons, for goodness sakes don’t give them up in exchange for a piece of paper guaranteeing your sovereignty. Might as well hand Cersei a proclamation signed by the recently deceased king naming you as regent and watch what happens. But this isn’t the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand. North Korea is less isolated with China’s patronage than Iran is. The Persians managed to piss everyone off. It’s not like Israel is well loved. Even slightly. But there’s no one to come to Iran’s rescue. The folks that would love to - Hamas, Assad, the Houthis, Shiites the world over - would already love to massacre every Jew in the Middle East if they could. Russia doesn’t have any great affinity for Iran. They have an alignment of interests because they’re both aligned against the US international hegemony, but Russia is in the process of getting their ass kicked. They have zero desire to take on Israel in any context. Personally I’d look for a different domino in this powder keg. I’m not trying to downplay the significance of it. This is a huge escalation between Iran and Israel. I am downplaying the significance of its impact on world affairs. In simplest terms, Iran fucked around and found out. Now they have internal massive protests, they’re the strongest supporter of an isolated aggressor in a European war, they’re exporters of a revolutionary religious jihad antithetical to the Sunni majority. There’s no one to come to their rescue, and that’s the truth if it. The only strong countries remotely friendly to them want their cheap oil, but they want access to Western markets more. When you’re talking about getting worried about WWIII, I’d recommend looking elsewhere.

My hopes and dreams. My hopes and dreams died that night. I feel like that should absolutely be forced to be included on the seller’s disclosure.

What do you and @Fudge Nuggets use for information sources? No judgement. Just curious. This shit is big news across all the normal places I try to get information from.

That's not as helpful to me as he seems to think it is. So we're talking about 10k soldiers on both sides? How much artillery on both sides? I mean, I never know that. I just know that Ukrainian artillery always seems to be completely outnumbered, and that Russia has a much higher ammo expenditure rate, although there appears to be a trend toward conservation that didn't exist earlier in the war. Based on Ukraine fielding two brigades in the area, they don't seem to be as outnumbered as they appear to be in Bakhmut and the Soledar region.

Any time Iran gets brought into the picture, there's a good chance for zealot talk. Heck, I'd argue the whole prosecution of war in Ukraine is the work of a zealot who believes Ukraine has no historical significance outside of an association with Russia, and also sees himself as the leader of a set of historical patriarchal values that the seedy demonic west has turned away from. The whole war is centered on zealotry as far as I'm concerned. Which also helps rationalize the whole "the end justifies the means" approach to this war. For many Russians, they're convinced this is their equivalent of a jihad. Which is a big reason I'm all in favor of supplying the Ukrainians more powerful weapons, including long range missiles and fighter jets, sooner rather than later, and am hopeful the new armor commitments are able to be fielded ASAP.

There are several sects of Christianity that do not believe in medical treatment of any kind. It's likely they would also not make good pilots, according to my grandfather. However, given that he was teaching students how to fly in the 50s, 60s, and early 70s, the chances are good he taught a few people who went to church along the way. I know a lot of people who are anti masking/vaxxing for something other than religious reasons. They tell me about how unsafe the Covid vaccinations are. Which, fine, I won't die on that hill. But I don't want to hear about how unsafe polio, smallpox, and measles vaccinations are, among others, which is where they try to go. These people don't go to church anywhere. They are part of the alternative nutrition/medical treatment system that has sprung up, where the pharmaceutical and medical system in this country is pure evil, and wants to hide truly effective treatments in the name of profits. And unfortunately there's enough of a kernel of truth there that the baby gets thrown out with the bath water in illogical - and for me, personally terrifying - ways.

I don't even think that's always true, although it can be. Japanese kamikaze pilots weren't flying their planes directly into US ships because they were poor. They believed they were emblematic of the samurai spirit. The pilots who flew the planes during 9/11 were not all from poor backgrounds. But they all felt like they were an instrument of God's will. The Western thought process doesn't generally engender these belief systems, from either a command perspective or among the rank and file. Certainly "suicide missions" do exist, and are implemented. But it's usually with a sense that if things go remarkably well, the people executing it will live through it. That's different from the kamikazes, the 9/11 pilots, and various suicide bombers, where the successful execution of the plan makes their death a basic assumption. To bring this back to Ukraine, what Russia and Wagner are doing on the front lines is not the same as Muslim martyrdom as prosecuted by suicide bombers. Yes, it's basically suicide to make the kind of frontal assaults we've seen in Bakhmut and Soledar, but the successful execution of the frontal assault would mean the soldiers live. There's the distinction.

I do think there are distinctions with Christianity and Islam that can be found throughout their respective histories and are reflective of world power dynamics today. That's not to laud or criticize either one. Islam never had a reformation of any sort. There is a martyrdom lionized in Islam that while recognized in Christianity, isn't as mainstream. Islam conflates the political leader, the religious leader, and the military commander into one person in a way Christianity does not. There's no such belief in Islam of "render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and unto God the things that are God's." There are reasons there's a lack of innovation that comes out of the Islamic world, even as their command of resources and their populations have grown. It wasn't always this way, but it's been a long time since an Islamic nation was the center of some kind of breaking research. It's not like Christianity has always been friendly towards scientific progress, but the mainstream religion was able to make compromises that led to the Baroque and Renaissance Eras and beyond, that Islam has failed to do in many ways. Christianity doesn't have a full on judicial system that is part and parcel with the religion. The persecution of apostasy in Muslim countries is on a level left behind by Christianity several centuries ago. To compare the two and say both religions have similarities is absolutely true, but to leave it at that is facile and disingenuous, and creates a context of relativity between the two that belies what each religion is trying to do to hold power in this world, along with spreading their doctrine further. Might as well throw in Scientology, Mormons, Hindus, Judaism, and whatever else and say they're all the same. They're all very different in very identifiable ways.

My rejoinder would be maybe we're defining decades in an old way. One of the things I'd suggest strongly is that social media has seemed vastly different from one decade to the next. That's not really a genre that existed in the 20th century. We had Telnet/Usenet in the 70s and 80s, and the beginning of the world wide web in the 90s, but to me MySpace is the first one that defined a generation, and that didn't launch until 2003. Video games and video game systems have a different feel. There is a definite distinction between video games made in each decade. But yeah, I certainly don't see the differences in various pop culture touchstones in ways that seemed highly distinct in the 50s/60s/70s/80s/90s.

I do feel like you're drawing a false equivalency. I don't know why you are, but that's your prerogative. My grandfather started teaching students how to fly during WWII with the B-17 bomber. He became one of the first people to fly helicopters when he was trained by the Army, and then proceeded to be a trainer into the mid 70s. When he would run auto rotation check rides, for example, the Persian Muslims simply approached it differently. Auto rotation is a mandatory skill to learn for new students. To demonstrate proficiency the instructor literally cuts off the engine sending the helicopter into free fall. The student has to show they can tilt the helicopter in a way to make the rotor spin by itself simply from the draft produced by free falling, and then use the rotor spin to, at the last second, "flare" the helicopter up right before landing to make a safe touchdown. Western students would become hyper focused during these exercises because they didn't want to die. In my grandfather's experience, the Muslim pilots he taught in Iran had a more fatalistic approach "If it is Allah's will, I will land safely" - which has its own advantages, for sure - but in my grandfather's experience made them poorer students. Here's a video explaining the exercise: https://www.google.com/search?q=auto+rotation+helicopter&rlz=1C1OPNX_enUS972US972&sxsrf=AJOqlzXMo36dEpc7Ph7O7EkXJj-oOjr2Pw%3A1675034008516&ei=mP3WY_SRH46pptQP8M2_4Ak&oq=auto+rotation&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQARgEMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgoIABBHENYEELADMgcIABCwAxBDMgcIABCwAxBDSgQIQRgASgQIRhgAUABYAGDdFmgBcAF4AIABAIgBAJIBAJgBAMgBCsABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:82e8f26d,vid:X5vA3OqnVuc That's just one example, and possibly one of the more dramatic, but it infused their approach to their training. None of this is to say they were terrible pilots. The Iranians demonstrated what they could do in aircraft in the Iraqi war when early on they made the successful attack on the Iraqi H-3 air base, destroying 48 Iraqi air craft on the ground with no losses of their own: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-3_airstrike Nonetheless, in my grandfather's opinion this approach to life and specifically to their training meant they would never be the equal to the Israeli pilots. Which, to be honest, the Israeli pilots have shown demonstrably against Muslim enemies since their existence.

What consequences do you think would be immediate? You know the West Bank and Gaza are already at recent historic levels of violence, the PA has already ceased any cooperation with Israeli authorities. They haven't been able to patrol certain Hamas controlled areas of the West Bank for a long time now because they're not welcome, so now Israel conducts daily raids with frequent collateral deaths from women and children bystanders. That sounds critical of Israel, when I generally go out of my way to defend them, but that's the facts on the ground right now. West Bank and Gaza are about to enter a new era of violence. Possibly it could be unprecedented, although as we know that's saying something. My point I was trying to make is that's going to occur no matter what kind of sorties Israel flies into Iran. There's going to be a tendency to blame these sorties for the escalation in violence. That analysis is extremely wrong, IMO. It would happen no matter what. What I feel highly confident about is that it won't lead to WWIII.

Maybe. A couple of things could change that. We hire someone as good or better than Beard as a coach. That's gonna be tough, since I think he's for sure one of the best basketball coaches out there. But Bill Self is a better coach for KU than Roy Williams was, so it's at least in the realm of possibility. If not in this universe, maybe another one. He ends up being found guilty of felony domestic abuse and goes to prison. That won't happen, but it would certainly change the narrative. He does a Billy Gillespie and completely implodes on a personal level at his next stop. I don't think that happens, either, but I'm rooting for it as long as nobody suffers a serious injury because of it. But yeah, he goes on and does as well as I expect him to, you'll be hearing about Chris Beard on some level for as long he's coaching. I certainly expect to be dead before he retires from coaching, so for the rest of my life, basically. And yeah, it's going to suck a big one. That said, my personal hopes and fears are very narrow right now. Just please baby Jesus don't let Rodney Terry be our next head coach. Thank you and amen.