
SL Xpress
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My ability to butcher names strikes again.
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I agree with almost all of that. To me it’s a watershed moment in human history. I think having a better understanding of its origin is important in terms of being able to tell that story in a more complete way. And while specific procedures might be a little late in being implemented, you and I both know that all kinds of human error was involved regardless of its origins. Having a better understanding of what that human error consisted of could still be an important learning moment/reminder of how quickly things can get out of control. But mostly I’d like as complete a telling of what happened for historical purposes.
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Not a single statement you just made makes sense to me. Mao is not considered a great man in the west, and there’s nothing at all clear to me what would have become of China if Chiang Kai Shek had won. I do think there’s something unique about cultures with some kind of Confucian foundation, but I don’t have a clear understanding of what that may be. I have guesses, but that’s it. But several of the countries with the greatest historical Chinese influence - Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore - have experienced the most impressive economic growth, all built on export led/current account surplus philosophies. But poor leadership can wreck any people/organization regardless of built in advantages. The Japanese made a massive change in their approach after Cook forcibly opened the country, and then another one just as drastic folllowing their defeat in WWII. Meanwhile much of the rest of the Far East was parceled off into European/American possessions, including China itself. Also, it’s not Mao’s leadership that brought China to where it is today. After some early successes in getting his people fed he led the country into a ditch. Deng is the one who got them turned around economically. And his leadership was no given. It’s also not clear if China would have been as successful if one of their party leaders had maneuvered themselves to be ruler for life as Xi seems to have done. It’s easy to look at their progress since WWII and think it was inevitable in some sense, but I feel strongly that’s a false assumption.
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Victor Ike had great speed. Hodges Mitchell did not.
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I firmly believe it was an accidental release from the Wuhan lab. But the lack of transparency from China means nothing to me either way. They’re a totalitarian state veering towards a dictatorship, with a massive bureaucracy. A lack of transparency is the status quo. I hope some kind of compelling proof is discovered one way or another, either in my lifetime or after. It’s one of the remarkable events in our lifetime - the first true global pandemic that shut the world down. I hope we know more about it some day.
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UT's next basketball coach - discussion/debate [Sean Miller Hired]
SL Xpress replied to alphahorn's topic in Basketball
Maybe. I hope so. Edit: Only to the extent he's not successful. I'm not hoping for the complete ruination of the man's life. Just the ruination of his career as a head coach. That's all. -
It's also a huge part of why the Soviet Union abandoned Afghanistan. The war with Ukraine is different. How different I don't know in terms of how high a loss of life is Russia willing to tolerate. But it's for sure different.
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I can't speak to Russian stupidity. An effective Ukrainian offensive is dependent on being able to use western armor - main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers. Also I'd add the effective incorporation of surface to air missile systems to deny air superiority to the Russians, and then allowing it to work together. Artillery, too, but I don't know how much more they need. From what I see it's ammunition they need the most. In any case the armor is only now beginning to trickle in. Well, it's not like I'm getting daily briefings from Ukrainian brass, so for all I know they could be in place already, but I don't believe that. The May time frame is my guesstimate for how long it will take to get all the needed equipment, getting it manned in newly formed military organizations built to take advantage of combined arms, get the people manning the equipment all the necessary equipment, then get the equipment in place along with whatever psyops are executed to try to obfuscate what the real intentions are. But maybe it's March. I just don't think all the needed equipment will be in Ukraine by then, much less the necessary people trained and ready to execute the plans given to them. The offensives Ukraine succeeded with in Kharkiv and Kherson are not available in the same way now. The defense of the Kharkiv Oblast defense was particularly inept and poorly manned by Russia, 'cause Russia. Maybe we see the same thing with the next offensive. I hope so. But they've dug multiple layers of fortified defensive lines across the southern map to try to prevent that from happening. IMO a lot of the fighting on both sides currently being done is as much for political reasons as military. Russia needs to show that it's capable of winning on the battlefield. As much significance as has been given to Bakhmut, which has held out for an extraordinarily long time, taking control of what's left of that city would absolutely be seen as a victory by Russia. On the other hand, Zelensky doesn't seem to want to be seen as giving up a single inch of Ukrainian territory. But strategically it's honestly not that important. It's in a bit of a valley with a steep rise to the west, so even if the Russians take it they're not in a good position to go on the attack from there. It has a couple of roads going through it, but it's not exactly a main hub. Mostly it's the next city in the way for trying to get to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk - which ARE extremely important for a variety of reasons. But taking Bakhmut won't really be much of a breakthrough. It's just a necessary one. But all of that is simply my personal view.
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Well, as inept as Russia has been, they still have Crimea, they still control everything south of the left bank of the Dnipro River, they still control a significant land bridge between the Donbas and Crimea, and they still control most of Luhansk and Donetsk. I’m as much of a cheerleader as anyone, and while I’m all for balanced perspective in most cases, I have to admit I like the Russian bot free zone that exists here. I haven’t spent 10,000 hours becoming an expert in debating Russian bots (and Chinese and even Israeli bots - and I’m pro Israel) but it sometimes feels like it. It’s a beating. It is telling to me the lack of resources Russia seems to be able to utilize in their current offensives. This is not like Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, or the opening salvos in the special military operation. Whether one wants to believe they’re running out of the means to wage modern war or not, they certainly seem to be acting as if they are. But beating back whatever offensive Ukraine eventually plans and making the Ukrainians suffer a big defeat would be the most important signal they still have what it takes. And I’d guess we’re months away from something like that.
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Apologies. I wasn't intending to insult your intelligence for sure. Yeah, click bait is real. People need to make the headline as dramatic as possible, regardless of the truth of it. It's frustrating for me as well. From the headline I thought for sure it was Zaluzhnyy who had been fired.
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There are a number of headlines out there with this report, and a number of them, including this one, are misleading. Eduard Moskalyov is the head of the joint forces in the Donbas region, so without a doubt A head commander. But he's not THE head commander. That's Valeriy Zaluzhnyy. Moskalyov has been in that position since March of last year. We can only speculate as to the dismissal, but my early strong guess would be Moskalyov wanted to retreat from Bakhmut to a different defensive position, and Zelensky fired him. But that's completely a guess.
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That hiring process was a giant clusterfuck. But so was the hiring process for guys like Pete Carroll and Jim Tressel. Hiring the right coach is such a spin of the roulette wheel anyway. There’s no telling if any of those others would have been better at Texas. One thing I admire about Pierce. The guy has a burning desire to win titles. You don’t make 3 CWS appearances and then fire your #1 assistant that has been with you for years unless you’re a proponent of the “Good is the enemy of Great” maxim. Doesn’t mean the program takes a step to the next level, but it does mean that’s Pierce’s standard as much and more than any fan critiquing from the stands.
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UT's next basketball coach - discussion/debate [Sean Miller Hired]
SL Xpress replied to alphahorn's topic in Basketball
I just have such clear memories of 2002-2008. The basketball program brought me such joy. Not that there weren’t frustrations, because there were, but the level of satisfaction and fulfillment I had as a fan was off the charts. I honestly thought that’s what Texas basketball was going to be like until either I died or Barnes finally stepped down. 7 years of gloriousness. Then I believed Beard was about to eclipse that with a bullet. I still think he will...just somewhere else. It’s definitely depressing. I’m excited for the next guy, and seeing what he can do. I’m hopeful. -
Not to mention the dollars used to purchase Chinese products aren't exactly buried in a hole. It's not just a matter of foregoing manufactured goods or the indirect importation of Chinese productivity growth. It's that the world operates with a certain expectation regarding the flow of money. Just like with the Lehman Brothers disappearing, interrupting that flow has uncertain consequences. Which is not to say nothing should be done. It's similar in attitude to helping Ukraine even under the threat of nuclear reprisals from Russia. If you give in to those reprisals, they'll expect you to give in the next time, too. Of course, the opposite is true as well. If you make a threat, then don't carry through with it, it becomes harder to take that threat seriously the next time.
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“This is not a threat. This is just a statement.” That is so awesome. That’s how you win a game of chicken. Or it ends up being a head on collision, but either way, you’ve laid out what’s going to happen in no uncertain terms, and you’ve conveyed as clearly as possible “this is not a bluff.”
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No reason to leave Europe out of that equation, either. We’ve all become dependent on China’s historic double digit production growth to increase wealth across the globe. The good news is the invasion in Ukraine has exposed fault lines, and the Russians are so evil in the way they’ve prosecuted the war it’s overcome reluctance in some circles in ways it had a limited impact in 2014.
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There’s a big difference between saying something is not doable and saying something is painful. Or saying something shouldn’t be done. I said the costs would be incalculable. And they are. Russia’s economic impact on Europe and the rest of the world is negligible compared to China. It’s a speck. Its impact in terms of fossil fuels is much larger than in other industries, obviously, but even there its impact on the world is not equivalent to China’s in a variety of economic segments. Even with that we don’t understand all the ramifications of disentangling from Russia, even. Several countries in Asia have experienced blackouts because shipments of LNG have been diverted to European ports. The rise in costs in natural gas have led several - most notably Pakistan which just went 15 hours without power because of missing natural gas shipments - to turn to coal. In Pakistan’s case the development of their coal resource came with China’s help. No one thought about how disentangling from Russian fossil fuels would create blackouts in other markets as the supply chain shifted. And I doubt the calculus would have changed if they did, necessarily. The other cost that adds to is the global south’s reluctance to join the west in being against this invasion. They see a hypocrisy involved. Watching countries experience blackouts so Europe can have record gas storage is going to be a part of it. I’m trying to make sure I don’t go into too much detail regarding all the ways China is integrated into the economies of the world, but it’s not just manufacturing. The flow of money would be severely disrupted in ways that Russia is unable to make an impact. Their economy is too small and doesn’t have enough touch points. It’s basically grain and fossil fuels (and military exports). And yet that impact has been severe in the global south, even more so than in the west. If the war continues for a long time, there is no way to calculate what kind of impact that makes on world governments or their attitude towards the west. In other words...incalculable. But disentangling from China is a whole different ball game. It’s not that we don’t know what the costs will be. We don’t even know what we don’t know. None of this is to say it shouldn’t happen. China is not our friend. But it is to say we often issue cavalier statements on this thread that have a much greater impact in real life in ways we can’t even begin to fathom, and when that is pointed out by me - a statement I consider a blinding glimpse of the obvious - I’m told in no uncertain terms I’m an idiot and don’t know what I’m talking about. Which doesn’t really bother me. It happens all the time. It doesn’t change my conviction I actually do know what I’m talking about, and the people who love to be dismissive of my comments on this specific topic are the real idiots.
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https://www.google.com/search?q=worry+beads&rlz=1C1OPNX_enUS972US972&oq=worry+beads&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.4651j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
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I don't have a link to a specific tweet, but apparently Ukrainian soldiers blew up a dam for a small lake on the northern side of Bakhmut to expand a creek flowing north, to make it more difficult for attacking Russian soldiers. There's speculation about a bigger lake with a dam a little north of that which could also be blown up putting some soldiers in a bit of a no man's land where supplies would be challenging to get to. From the footage I saw it wasn't exactly a raging river. More like a smallish creek. Enough to be an impediment for sure, but not an impassable one. I'll be honest. There's a scent of desperation in this. I'm sure the Ukrainian command knows exactly what it's doing, but I can't help but be concerned with the soldiers holding out in Bakhmut itself. Not like there's a lot I can do other than fiddle with my worry beads, so I'm going to get some practice in (I don't actually own worry beads, but metaphorically I do). Not that any of this is actually disastrous from a war footing point of view. I've seen footage of them building more defense lines to the west of Bakhmut. Bakmut is at the bottom of a rise, so if they move to the west they'll have the high ground. As many of us have talked about ad nauseum, Bakhmut is not a critically strategic objective. It's a hoop that has to be jumped through to get to the rest of the Oblast, so it's not nothing. But it'd be more of a political/morale victory for the Russians than anything resembling a decisive gain. I'm sure more will come in today with video footage. I look forward to seeing what has actually transpired, and seeing everyone's thoughts on it.
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I don't think that stuff is completely harmless. What we thought when the world wide web started is that we could finally bypass the curators to find the real story instead of having the information spoonfed to us. What we've found is that without credible curators the disinformation experts have figured out they don't have to convince us of lies. They just have to put so much bullshit out there that people give up trying to figure out the truth and just believe what they want to believe. Which is what everyone naturally wants to do anyway, including me. I try to challenge myself by getting out of any echo chambers as much as I can, but I'm human, and I can feel myself as prone to it as anyone. I've been very impressed on some level at how well the fake news people have won. Disappointed, disheartened, mildly hopeless, but impressed all the same.
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It’s baseball. That narrative won’t change until he wins titles, it doesn’t matter how many College Workd Series he makes. Frankly I saw a similar - if subdued - narrative regarding Elliott and volleyball before this past season. I don’t believe Texas is alone in this dynamic. If a program is used to a certain level of success, but it can’t seem to get over the hump for a certain amount of time, disgruntled voices can emerge. The truth is Pierce has a huge amount of support. I don’t believe the naysayers are some kind of massive chorus or anything yet. Loop 1604 is certainly no gauge of anything. No offense Loop 1604. I just find your posts are often idiotic.
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"After a year, is my country, the United States, more trusted?" Nod nod nod. "Yes." Great interview, but that last part really hit me in the feels. Oh...would.
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I feel like the alt right movement is evil and needs to be marginalized. I do not believe the narrative we've chosen regarding race relations is going to do that. I did see that video. I liked it. One of the things I used to ask people who would claim they were color blind, "how many friends of color do you actually have?" Most of the time if they had any that they claimed, they were either co-workers who they had no meaningful interactions with outside of work, or even better, were actually hired help. If you have no one from a different culture you would be willing to invite over for dinner, or if you would, you haven't yet, there's some self examination that should occur. Doesn't mean you're some kind of bad person, but you're living in a way that has probably isolated you from people of color. Which, in all honesty, is more normal than I would prefer. It can be challenging in certain circles to organically form friendships with people of different cultures. And you cannot possibly form a real, vulnerable relationship with someone under your employ. I'm not saying you can't be close to them, and consider them as more than hired help. But at the heart of that relationship they are depending on you for an income, and that will shade every interaction in ways that can't be maneuvered around. It can only be compensated for, and never wholly. But the amount of people of wealth who try to use this as a claim they're not racist is unbelievable to me.
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IMO the medical system, the justice system, and the political system are the three areas where discrepancies in wealth are felt in the most egregious ways. Since there are clear metrics establishing the discrepancy in wealth between whites and people of color, there is going to be an abundance of evidence of institutional racism. The argument against this is when people propose this is an economic issue, not a racial issue, but the two are inseparably intertwined. Of course, I think the way we handle health care in this country is criminal at this point. Perhaps it made sense when we were a manufacturing goliath, and productivity gains on an annualized basis were through the roof. Providing equitable health care requires extremely hard decisions we're not capable of as a society. We want to believe it's sustainable to give everyone the maximum care technology can provide to anyone and everyone who can obtain it, when that's simply not the case. So the way it ends up getting divvied out is on an ad hoc basis with the first in line being ones who can afford it under whatever mechanism they have available to them. One of the most enlightening articles I ever read regarding health care was about the Amish community and how they make decisions based on someone older who needs cancer treatment, versus a newlywed who needs a home and barn. With a finite amount of resources and advanced medical care completely paid out of pocket, really hard choices were made. We don't do that as a general society, and are repulsed by the uglier aspects of doing something like that. Which I admire. But in terms of having a functioning society, there's some level of health care that's not sustainable. Limiting it simply based on an ability to afford it is the worst system we could possibly choose, but that's where we are.
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I don't know who Tahoe is. I've been posting as SL Xpress exclusively in Longhorn communities since the mid 90s GoBig12 days.
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