So yesterday I closed on the sale of a house. Very long story--was supposed to be Mrs.LL's dream house, but interest rates happened and the timing and shit and now it just makes more sense to renovate the current house. So today, I have quite a lot of money sitting in cash in my brokerage account.
Here's the thing--Wall Street doesn't understand shit about politics. Mrs.LL was in finance for a long time, and ever since we've been together, I've always been shocked by how little Wall Street understands politics. So much of their business is dictated by what happens in Washington, but they understand fuck-all about it. And right now, Wall Street is expecting 1) a Trump win (and the inflationary and recessionary dangers that come with that) and 2) a period of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as happened in 2020.
Based on everything we know, I strongly expect neither of those things. And I think the market is going to react very favorably to 1) No Trump, and 2) certainty (irrespective of who wins) when the race is called shortly after midnight CST. So fuck your prediction thread--I'm putting my money where my mouth is. When the market goes up 5% tomorrow on the strength of a definitive Kamala win, the first round at Chili's is on me.