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Everything posted by Ghost of LL
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Do you have any evidence for this? Because I think it runs contrary to the empirical evidence and basic common sense. Harris not only takes away the primary attack against the Democratic candidate. She turns it squarely back on Trump. As bad as Biden looked against Trump, Trump would look even more confused, enfeebled, and incapable if put on a debate stage against Harris. And you think that doesn’t win voters back to the Democratic ticket? I mean, that’s just wild to me. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
I genuinely don’t understand this take when every poll shows the vast majority of Democrats want Biden to drop out. Nobody thinks that of you elect Biden you’re not getting Harris as president at some point before January 20, 2029. So you’re getting all of the negatives of Biden and all of the negatives of Harris, without any of Harris’s positives. Just eliminate the Biden negatives, and at the same time reap the positives that come with a younger and more dynamic candidate. -
And with global warming, the winter in New York is getting ever more tolerable. This year, I think it only snowed once. Last year, not at all. Summer is not great. But a guy like me who has always lived in Texas would regard it as altogether (1) not terrible and (2) brief.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Like a glacier calving. Movement so slight it is imperceptible, and then all at once. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Real talk here--that Michigan-Ohio rivalry is so toxic that Vance is probably worth a point to the Democratic nominee in Michigan. -
And I mean, as an added benefit you'd get me as a neighbor if you moved to New York. Right? Yeah--you're exactly right about the specialists. I've been surprised how hard it is to get a doctor on some things here in Austin. For a lot of things, there are just one or two doctors. And with the present political environment, that's not improving (particularly for people like Mrs.LL, who are going to need medical care for things of a feminine nature).
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So Mrs.LL and I have the same preferences, and we've settled on Manhattan, as I'll outline below: Big city but too big, if that makes sense. No small towns or mid-sized towns unless they’re within 30 minutes of an actual city. Well, look--it's probably "too big," since you seem to think "too big" is a thing. I don't share that opinion. Even in New York or Tokyo or London, you live in your neighborhood, which is big, but not too big. Nobody lives in New York; they live on the Upper East Side or Brooklyn or West Village. Nobody lives in London; they live in Chelsea or Tottenham or Arsenal . . . yeah, ok--I'm just naming Premier League teams. But you take the point. Good airport: I mean, obviously. From New York, you can get pretty much anywhere in the world that you might want to go nonstop. And because it's served by every major international carrier and is a hub for AA, DL, and UA, there is a lot of price competition. You're not a slave to UA like you are out of Denver or to AA like you would be out of Phoenix. Illustrating the point, I can fly from New York to London next Friday for less than $400 (or for $2,300 in Business) on any number of airlines. Try that trick out of Northwest Arkansas. Things to do on a random weekday. A raison d'etre for a city, if you will. I mean, obviously. A relatively outdoorsy place. By that I mean, we like outdoorsy stuff but no camping. I don't think people appreciate how much outdoorsy stuff there is in New York. Central Park is amazing--you can truly feel out in the wilderness there (and, in a lot of ways, you are). The beach is right there. You can go boating. There are ski resorts that are a two-hour drive away. I mean, ok--they're not Vail. But they're the same distance as Denver to Vail. A workable tax rate. We’re not going to slavishly chase a low rate but it does matter. New York's tax structure kind of works well for retirees. I mean, I'm not going to tell you it's great. But I am going to say that as a retiree coming from Texas, you're probably going to find it lower than what you've been used to. Politics, both state and city. Prefer left leaning. (This exempts the South and Texas.) So New York is liberal, but it likes electing cops and would-be authoritarians (see, e.g., Eric Adams; Rudy Giuliani). Maybe that goes back to the culture deriving from the original Dutch settlement and the fact that the Dutch West India Company didn't brook any inkling of democracy or sectarianism that would interfere with its mercantilist purpose. Whatever--it seems like that's what you're describing. Relatively good weather. (This exempts the South and Texas.) I mean, I don't know what you call "good." New York has four seasons. Two of them are great. Winter is cold, but not unbearably so. It's not Minneapolis. Summer is hot. But it's not Houston. And anyway--that's why you go to the Hamptons. House budget -- $1.5M to $2.5M. For what you need as a retiree, I should think that would be plenty for a small apartment in Manhattan. But let me humbly add a couple of other considerations: Access to healthcare. Dude--you're going to be old. You got to get that shit checked out. And if you have a heart attack, you need to be able to get to a hospital where they can save your life (you hear me, Mike Leach?). And in New York, you've got some of the best hospitals in the world. Mobility. In that same vein, think about a city if you're confined to a wheelchair. Or even if you're just old and can't walk super easy. New York may not seem ideal at first glance, but it actually kind of is. Between taxis and delivery, you can get everything you need with minimal/no walking. And since the state is so rigorous on enforcing ADA compliance, businesses are really accessible. It helps too that New York is generally pretty flat (compare with Denver or NW Arkansas). Good surface transit: You point out a good airport, but sometimes you don't want to get on a plane. For some things, you want to get on a train or hop in your car and be there in a couple hours. And New York offers all of that. Boston, Philadelphia, Washington--they're all three hours or less away. The beach is an hour away; skiing is two. Sports. I happen to like sports. Given that we're on a college football message board, I suspect you do, too. So you want a city that has all four major sports. I mean, fuck--you're going to be retired. You can get season tickets to your MLB team and actually go to 81 home games. What else you gonna do? And in New York, you have the added benefit of all the international shit that comes to America's first city--the World Cup, the ICC Cricket World Cup, the US Open. Diversity. I love the fact that there is a Georgian (Caucasian, not American) restaurant next to a Korean restaurant down in West Village. Over in Queens, you can get any type of cuisine you can imagine. And let's be real honest--the best Chinese food in the world isn't in fucking Beijing; it's in New York. Je ne sais quoi. And then there's a final factor. You just want someplace with a sense of "place" to live out your time in this dimension. Some place that's not generic "America." There are plenty of places that fit that bill. New Orleans. San Francisco. Miami. For my money, no place supplies that factor better than New York.
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This is exactly right. The money-laundering benefit of bitcoin is in the anonymity. But it is traceable because it is not fungible. In the same way that dollar bills are not fungible, neither is bitcoin. Dollar bills have serial numbers, so you can trace the bills that the feds handed over to DB Cooper and see that none of them have ever been spent. In much the same way, bitcoin has an identifying code that can travels with the bitcoin (or portion of bitcoin) through every transaction. The important difference is that in the ordinary course of business, nobody records the serial numbers of dollar bills. So dollar bills are "considered fungible." But with bitcoin, its identifying code is recorded with every transaction. So it's not even "considered fungible." Compare that with the dollars that are in my bank account. Those dollars are "actual fungible." I can wire them to a different account in which they are comingled with other funds, and it's impossible to differentiate those dollars from the dollars that were previously in that account with which they were comingled.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
But here's the thing: anyone who doesn't want a black woman in the Oval Office is going to vote against a Biden-Harris ticket anyway. Because absolutely nobody in their right mind would believe that Joe Biden is going to live to January 20, 2029. So you've already got the negative. Why not go ahead and get the positive that comes with having her on the top of the ticket? And this is the punchline. Get Biden out of the way, and the entire narrative shifts back onto the only old non compos mentis guy left in the race. -
They're not really all over the country. Texas dominates bitcoin mining in the United States (and consequently, the world). And that is in large part because, as @Captainant rightly points out, they can make more money in Texas by turning off their machines than they can anywhere actually mining bitcoin. We're going to look back on bitcoin in the medium-term future with nothing but disgust and wonderment. Between the physical harm it's doing to rural residents who live near these miners, the environmental harm it is doing with its electric and water consumption, and the financial harm it has done to millions of people who aren't financially literate, bitcoin has caused/is causing untold amounts of human suffering. All for what? A product whose sole utility is money laundering and rube-fleecing? It really is a fair encapsulation of 34 years of Republican governance in Texas.
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The problem here isn't deregulation. This is entirely a failure by Centerpoint, which is a transmission-and-delivery utility. Electric generators are deregulated, as are retail utilities. But the issue here isn't with the electric generators. Unlike during the 2021 winter storm, there's plenty of electricity being generated. And the problem isn't with the retailers--all they do is read your meter and bill you anyway. The problem this go-around is entirely with Centerpoint. And TDUs like Centerpoint are still regulated. They still operate under a certificate of convenience and necessity, which delineates a territory in which they have a monopoly. The PUC has to approve Centerpoint's rates; Centerpoint can't get a rate increase without getting the approval of the PUC. Of course, that approval is typically forthcoming because . . . well, you know--this is Texas. Regulators aren't really there to regulate industry so much as facilitate the regulated industry's fleecing of the citizenry. So yeah--this isn't about deregulation. This is about the failure of Greg Abbott's appointed regulators.
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Honestly--the CIA is doing yeoman's work here in preventing World War III. Between foiling this and the Russian plot earlier this month to attack American facilities in Europe, they're preventing attacks that would very likely compel the United States and its allies to go to war against Russia. It's kind of a replay of the underappreciated documentary The Final Countdown. Except this time, we're actively preventing the attack on Pearl Harbor rather than allowing it to happen out of some misplaced concern about the "timeline."
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It should have been done the day after we lost to Panama.
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It's coming home! I mean, not really--Three Lions are going to get their asses kicked by Espana. But still.
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Yeah--I don't know about that offside call.
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I don't know how that's not a penalty.
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Stones and Rice are so disappointing.
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I was on a cruise earlier this summer, so I figured I'd start the Aubrey-Maturin series. I mean, when better to read that than when you're bouncing up and down on the waves? I'm now on the fourth book, and it's really entertaining. It's kind of if a Tom Clancy book were set in the Napoleonic Wars, with a scooch of Jane Eyre mixed in.
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I mean, for that money the stewardesses better be (1) in those Pan Am uniforms, (2) offering me blow jobs in the lav, and (3) answerable to the title "stewardess."
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What a brilliant correction of my misstatement.
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