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Everything posted by Ghost of LL
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
This is part of the point. Demoralize them. Let them know that they're losing. They're losing in part because Harris has vastly more money to spend on ads than Trump does. These people view electoral politics as entertainment and sport. But if their team isn't winning, they're not going to show up for it in November. Because why would you bother showing up for a loser? Demoralize them now; they'll stay home in November. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
And no--we're not having any fucking fires. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Why would I invite you? Every time I'm in New York, you find some excuse not to hang out with me. "I'm in London that week." "I'm in Cape Town that month." Yeah--likely story. It fucking feels like high school again every goddamned time I got to New York. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
My brother--you don't need an invite. You're always welcome at Casa GOLL. Ummm, I'm gonna have to think about that. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Hey, are you and @Pescado_Rojo and @Kyrie Eleison coming over to my house for Election Night drink-a-thon against this year? If so, you better bring your top-drawer hot dish, my friend. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Of the many things I am looking forward to being rid of when Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump, somewhere on the list is the phrase "Trump World." -
Yep--the main blow is definitely coming in the Pas-de-Calais direction. I still consider the strike in the Normandy region to be a distraction. Much more soberly, I'm really worried that this offensive into Kursk has the whiff of Operation Michael in the Spring of 1918. It just feels like it might be a last throw of the dice while there are still dice to throw.
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Inside Munich, almost everything you're going to want to see is inside the old city walls (which are gone, but are marked by various gates). You can take the S-Bahn to Marienplatz, and that puts you right at the main town square. Fronting on the Marienplatz is the Neues Rathouse (New City Hall) with the glockenspiel in the clock tower. Across the way is St. Peter's Church, which is worth a hike up to the tower for a great view (you can see the Alps in the distance) and the full skeleton of some saint (southern German Catholics are very big on the display of relics). I also like walking back behind St. Peter's to the Viktuelenmarkt, which is a big farmers market with a beer garten. If you get up in the morning, walk around the old town, and then go over to the beer garten and grab a lunch of some sandwiches on a bread roll and end up sitting there the rest of the day drinking beer, . . . that's not a wasted day in my book. The Residenz--the in-town residence of the kings of Bavaria, roughly the equivalent of Buckingham Palace--is a few blocks north. And near that is the Odeonsplatz with the Theatinerkirche, which is itself worth a stop. The Odeonsplatz is interesting because it is where the showdown between the Bavarian state police and the Nazis occurred that ended the Beer Hall Putsch. On the left side of the Feldherrenhalle, which is the loggia on the south side of the square, is where the gunbattle took place. There was a Nazi memorial there, at which everyone passing had to give the Nazi salute. That's obviously gone. Still remaining is a memorial to the police officers killed by the Nazis. If you're interested in the Nazi spots, Munich has a lot of them. I'd recommend the website https://www.thirdreichruins.com/munich.htm, which will show you a number of spots that were significant to the Nazis, Munich being the birthplace of the party. And there are plenty of spots where you can still see the remnants of Nazi decorations. Just outside the city center is Schloss Nymphenburg, which is another of King Ludwig's castles and was kind of the suburban royal residence (akin to Windsor Castle). There's no nearby subway stop, but the bus goes there. The Olympic stadium and athlete's village is a short subway ride from the city center. That's worth a look. The BMW headquarters and Museum are a short walk away (right across the Autobahn). Go to the Hofbrauhaus if you want. But the Augustinerkeller just north of the main train station is where it's at. The food and beer are both better, and there's a great garden. Also have a liter at the beer garden at the Englishergarten.
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I guess I'm lucky. I got one for a month from now. All I have to do is drive out to fucking Bastrop first thing in the morning. We get the government we vote for, friends.
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As fortune would have it, I just wrote up a day-trip itinerary to King Ludwig's castles for a colleague who is going to Munich next month: Leave Munich by 8:00, and take the Autobahn A-95 south toward Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Exit at the town of Oberau on the B-2 and turn onto the B-23 toward Ettal. On the right side of road at the town of Ettal is the Ettal Monastery, which is worth a short stop. And on the left side of the road is a bakery that is a great stop for a quick breakfast. Just after Ettal you’d turn left toward Schloss Linderhof (https://www.schlosslinderhof.de/englisch/tourist/index.htm). It opens at 10:00 AM, and it’s best to be early to avoid the big crowds. It is built as a tiny version of Versailles, and the real interesting stuff is the grotto and the gardens. The grotto was built for Ludwig to enjoy Wagner’s operas in an immersive environment, and is really very cool. All in, it'll probably take 2-3 hours. After Linderhof, you go back out to the road and turn left (i.e., not back in the direction you came), and you get a nice little drive through the Alps and into Austria. Eventually you get to the town of Reutte, where you turn right on Highway 179 toward Fussen. Just before Fussen, you cross back into Germany and then in a couple miles you come to a T intersection. Right takes you to Schloss Neuschwanstein, left takes you into town. Personally, at this point I’d go into town and grab lunch. It’s a cute little Bavarian town with a pretty little pedestrian area in the center. There are a bunch of restaurants around. After that, you can head over to Schloss Neuschwanstein (https://www.neuschwanstein.de/englisch/tourist/). This is the castle on which Walt Disney modeled Cinderella’s Castle, and the exterior is pretty famous. The interior, however, is unremarkable. Basically, the Bavarian treasury was emptied before Ludwig could finish it, so there’s not just a whole lot to see inside. It’s definitely worth hiking up to the courtyard and then around to the side where there’s a bridge from which you can get great photos. I’m not sure going inside is a great expenditure of time. From Neuschwanstein, you can look down and see Castle Hohenschwangau, which is the previous royal palace where Ludwig was born. Again—I’m not sure it’s worth going down there. Finished with Neuschwanstein, go back out to Highway 17 and turn right. At Steingaden, turn right on Ammergauer Strasse and follow the signs to the Wieskirche (https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/271/). It’s a rococo church in the middle of a meadow (“Wies” is “meadow” in German) that marks a miraculous spring. Even if you’re not a church person, this one is worth a stop. After that, head back to Ammergauer Strasse, take a right, and that will take you right back to Highway 23 (take a right), which goes back to the Autobahn and Munich. On the way, you’re going to pass back through Ettal. I will tell you that the monastery has a brewery (as most monasteries in Germany do). And across the street is the hotel Ludwig der Bayer, which has a very good restaurant with a patio overlooking the monastery, which you may want to stop at for a snack and a beer or for dinner, depending on the hour. If you want to take an extra day and stay in the area, I think it is worth the area. You can hike around the Partnachklamm, which is a cool little canyon. Or you can take the gondola up the Zugspitze to the highest spot in Germany. Also in the town is the stadium and ski jumps from the 1936 Winter Olympics (somehow Germany got both the Winter and Summer Olympics in 1936)--really great look for the IOC in retrospect.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Back in the 90s when I was a Republican, I fucking hated Bill Clinton and thought he was a complete sleazeball sexual predator. I still fucking hate Bill Clinton and think he is a complete sleazeball sexual predator. -
I mean, holy shit. That’s waaaay further north than we’ve thought they were.
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A story about a pathetic man's downfall [34 Felony Convictions]
Ghost of LL replied to Francisco 2.0's topic in Cloak Room
So I was going to ask how this isn't a breach of his fiduciary duty, but then I looked up DJT's board of directors and . . . he's not even a fucking director. They didn't tie him down with a directorship or anything. I mean, jesus fuck. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
A couple off-the-radar states here that I think I might lighten the shading on: New Hampshire: The Democrat usually wins New Hampshire, but it's typically by a pretty narrow margin. It's always a lot closer than people give it credit for. And in this election, I have some concern that Harris not going through the primary and doing the usual New Hampshire retail-politics thing back in January may be to her detriment. It might behoove her to just take a day and stop in at a bunch of diners around Manchester and Nashua to have the local television networks show you checking that box. Alaska: Alaska is in play. Only one of its three statewide federal officials is a Republican. And the Native American population, which is huge, is becoming more politically active and more reliably Democratic. This is one of those rare times when a rally might have an electoral impact--just fly up to Anchorage one day, have a rally at the airport, and fly overnight to get back. Making that effort could be worth a couple points, and a couple points might be all you need to flip that state. -
That’s interesting. You don’t bring up engineering vehicles for a raid. They’re planning to stay a while.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
I suspect they decided to bag it because the crowd was too small. -
The big result of this little foray--whether it is a "raid," a "reconnaissance-in-force," or a full-on invasion--is that it has conclusively demonstrated to American policymakers that Ukraine can use American weapons in Russia (even to the point of using American weapons to occupy Russian territory) and Russia will do fuck-all about it. The American restrictions can be safely rescinded.
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Jesus--this is fucking embarrassing for the Kiwi-haters.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
It's actually 1,342 registered voters, as made clear in the Ipsos link. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
From the handful of RFK voter's I've talked to, that's not really the intent. It's more of a "both parties suck, and I want to send a message to shake up the two-party system." And I think that's part of the explanation for why RFK's support skews young and . . . shall we say generously . . . unsophisticated. Those of us who have been around the block a few times understand how entrenched the two-party system is, structurally, institutionally, and constitutionally. It's a lesson that is only learned the hard way. It's a lesson that only gets learned from voting for a third party (and seeing your peers do the same). And that only really happens when you're dissatisfied with the candidate nominated by the party that you would ordinarily support. All too obviously, it's a lesson that a lot of voters who would ordinarily vote for the Democrat learned after voting for Jill Stein. An early cadre of Democrats learned the lesson in 2000 after voting for Ralph Nader. Today, the people who are particularly displeased with the candidate of the party they might ordinarily support are Republicans. In particular, they're young white males--exactly the type of people who haven't yet learned the lesson of why you don't vote third party. -
Thing$ $till not going well for Joe Rogan, I $ee.
Ghost of LL replied to Parliament's topic in Cloak Room
This is how you deal with the Trump supporters that are still in your life. You treat them like an asteroid that is about to hit the Earth. You don't have to stop the asteroid; you just have t deflect it a fraction of a degree. "Did you hear that Rogan in supporting RFK Jr.? I mean, I guess it makes sense since RFK Jr. makes some good points about the Covid vaccine, and Trump was the one who got the vaccine fast-tracked and everything." Seriously--if we could get RFK Jr.'s vote in Texas up to 10%, Kamala's winning this fucking state. -
I don't know the objective. But if the objective is Kursk, then it is probably to bypass defenses set up along the P200 highway and connect with Highway 38. Kursk is a good objective today for the same reason it was in 1943. It is an important crossroads city. Virtually all roads of any significance in Russia go to Moscow. And there is a highway through Kursk that does that (Highway 105, which goes down to Belgorod and eventually to Kharkiv). But uniquely, there is also a highway (Highway 38) that goes perpendicular. It goes broadly east-west from the Ukrainian border to Voronezh to Saratov on the Volga. There's a major rail line that does the same thing. So Kursk is pretty critical as a logistics hub for any offensive action in Ukraine. If you sever that, then it becomes pretty difficult to mount any offensive action toward Kharkiv.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Dude--it's a lie. But that's what you should say to your deplorable friends/family to convince them to vote for RFK Jr. rather than Trump. Because in politics, the truth is so precious that she must be attended at all times by a bodyguard of lies. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ghost of LL replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
As a Republican at the time, I remember those dark days. Damn, it was rough. Going out there and pleading with voters just to vote for a Republican candidate in the House because everyone knew Clinton was going to win and Americans at that time preferred divided government. And it kind of worked, too. Clinton won 379 electoral votes. It was an ass-kicking. He won Louisiana, for fucksakes. But the Republicans only lost four House seats and somehow managed to keep control. And they actually gained a net of two Senate seats (winning seats in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Nebraska while losing a seat in South Dakota (yes, really)). But here's the thing--you could get away with that shit with Bob Dole at the top of the ticket. But with Donald Trump? For one thing, if you try that, Trump's going to trash you on Truth and everywhere else he can get a platform. Seriously--can you imagine Ted Cruz saying "you need to vote for me to retain divided government so that Kamala Harris has some checks on what she can do"? Jesus Christ--Trump would be shitting all over Cruz in a second, probably sinking him. They'll say "I can't vote for Kamala Harris; she's a socialist." But here's the thing--these people are every bit as dumb as the Palestinian protestors yelling about "Genocide Joe." They don't realize that American elections are binary. So play into that. You can't vote for Harris because she's a socialist? Fine. Great. Understandable. I get it man. I couldn't vote for Biden because he was mentally unfit. I was going to vote for RFK Jr. And now that you're guy is showing himself to be just as mentally unfit as Biden, that's probably what you ought to do. Campaigns will poll different messages and themes, but that's not what we're talking about here. What we're talking about here is the campaign's version of a horserace poll--i.e., who's winning. And a campaign isn't going to do a nationwide poll of 1,000 voters like The Washington Post or ABC News is going to do. For on thing, it's terribly expensive. And for another, it doesn't really give you usable data. Instead, they're going to take a poll of a smaller area that they know is pivotal to them. A Democrat may know that she needs to hit 70% in Milwaukee County to win Wisconsin. So she may do an internal of Milwaukee County. And it may tell them that they're fine, or it may tell them that they have work to do in that area. Or it may tell them "holy fuck--we're polling at just 45% in Milwaukee County; we're completely screwed." Those kind of polls aren't really meaningful to the general public. But they tell the campaign a lot.
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