Ghost of LL

Fuck you. I responded to the post because it directly addressed me. I'm sorry that I don't spend every waking moment on this site. And fuck Chad Fairchild. Have a little fucking grace. Say "yeah, I saw the replay. I didn't see the change of direction in real time. I made a mistake." That's the answer; that'd be the end of it. But Chad has to be a little bitch. And finally, fuck the Astros. Can we wear the gold-trimmed uniforms for every game against the Astros this year? Because fuck the Astros. So that's my list of people who can go fuck themselves on this day off: shadow, Chad Fairchild, and the Astros.

They're a very industrious people. I mean, even in their laziness, they're exceedingly hard-working.

Counterpoint: cheap Chinese manufactured goods and ripe produce year-round.

Shit--I have a thread on Oktoberfest from way back. But I can't find it now. As to hotels, there is a Sheraton Four Points and a Courtyard Marriott within walking distance. Marriott may have changed this, but when I went some years ago, they didn't have "surge pricing" for rooms booked on points. So the Courtyard is something like a Level 3 hotel, and they didn't change that during Oktoberfest. So you could get that room for really cheap on Marriott points. But whether you're booking on points or using cash, you need to book a hotel now. You ought to get a pair of lederhosen, and your lady needs a dirndl. Yeah--you'll feel dumb as you get dressed in the hotel room. But then you'll step foot outside and start walking toward the Wiesn, and you'll see that everyone else is ismilarly attired. And you'll feel suddenly that you're pretty cool. The general scene is that there are a dozen or so big tents. Each has its own vibe. Hippodrome is the smallest and maybe the coolest. Hofbrauhaus is for the Australians. Augustiner has the best beer. You go in and find a seat. You have to be seated to order a drink (or food). There is no bar that you can walk up to and order. It's a way of limiting capacity. You order, the bier comes, and you pay--nobody is going to run you a tab. And once you have your bier, you can get up and walk around if you wish (though you'll lose your place at that table). All of the tables are like picnic tables that seat 16 (though the tables at the Hippodrome are smaller--they maybe seat 10). If you see a spot, politely ask the people sitting there if it's available--"ist dieser Platz frei?". If yes, they'll motion you to sit. Aside from being socially appropriate, it also has the side benefit of being something of a conversation starter. And it's kind of expected that you're going to be social. And why wouldn't you be? You're surrounded by people from right around the world drinking and having a good time. I'm still in contact with people I met at Oktoberfest who are from everywhere from Germany to Australia. Tables can be reserved for large groups. But if you see an empty table with a "Reserviert" sign on it, you can still sit down and order a bier. But if the reserving party shows up, they'll kick you out. Or they'll just ask you to push down. That happened to us at the Hippodrome. I think the Swiss guys who had the table reserved were quite happy to have Mrs.LL in her dirndl continue to hang out at their table for a while. Remember to eat something. The standard snack at every tent is the half-chicken (halb Hahnchen). It's way oversalted and rotisserie grilled. Fucking delicious. But you're going to want another bier or two after all that salt. Dammit--now I want to go back. Maybe we'll take the kids when they're both over 16.

Fuck you, hotwheels.

Seeing my team unfurl a World Championship banner and come out with gold-trimmed uniforms with a World Champion sleeve patch . . . damn, I'm not sports crying, but there's definitely a sports lump in my throat.

That whole area south of Interlaken is amazing. I don't have a preference as between villages, and I've only been there once many years ago. So I don't have any real good recommendations or commentary on that. But it's a beautiful area. I'm happy to give whatever thoughts you want on Munich. I will observe that Munich is the birthplace of National Socialism. So if you want some good Nazi sights, Munich is your town (Nuremberg is also great for that). If you're interested in such sights, you should have a browser page on your phone open to Third Reich Ruins any time you're walking around Munich.

I have to say that this was somewhat rare--we only saw it in a couple of restaurants we went to in Kyoto. But I don't remember changing into "house slippers" when entering the restaurant. You just took off your shoes and went around in your stocking feet. Then, when you went to the toilet, there were bathroom slippers for use there. But then you take them off when you're done and leave them at the bathroom door. The Japanese I saw didn't bring their own slippers.

I've gotten to an age at which I fear the fall.

And that's the punchline. You have a very challenging race to poll, and probably the least capable pollsters doing the polling. When you have a 25- or 30-point polling miss, that's reflecting of shitty polling. And given the challenging environment and the likely quality of the pollsters involved, that probably should be a surprise. And I'm not saying otherwise. Look--I've been pretty bullish on Biden's chances throughout this cycle. And I think I've pointed out on this and other threads some of the challenges that pollsters face and why I think Nate Silver's take is increasingly comical. I agree with you that Dobbs is going to be a big motivator for voters, and may alone be enough to push Biden over the finish line. All I'm saying--but I'm saying it loudly--is to be cautious of special-election results and to not give them more weight than is due. They're sui generis. I mean, it's good to win elections. I'm not doing the NYT punchline of "Democrat wins by 25 points; here's why that's bad for Biden." I'm just saying that there are a whole lot of MAGAts who didn't vote in this election (and who probably didn't even know that there was an election going on) who are going to turn out in November to vote for their Orange God.

Ummmm, . . . and they're right.

Two things can be true at the same time. Polls can be broken, and Democrats can be expected to overperform in special elections that are (almost by definition) low-turnout affairs. So when I say "A Democrat should be expected to significantly overperform in a low-turnout special election," it is not responsive to that point to say "but the polls are fucked up." And by the way, that's particularly true of polls in a late-March special election. All of the difficulties of polling a nationwide election are magnified when your constituency is so small. How the fuck do you get a decent sample when an Alabama House district only has 42,000 residents?

Tell me how a special election for a state House of Representatives seat with miniscule turnout is predictive of a high-turnout presidential election. We all know that the people most likely to turn out in special elections are highly educated and politically inclined voters. And right now, that's a group Democrats do very well with. It's not a surprise that Democrats overperform in such elections; it would be a huge alarm bell if they didn't significantly overperform. So when a Democrat won a special election in Oklahoma in 2017, did it indicate that the Oklahoma Senate seat on the ballot in 2018 would go Democratic? Fuck no. But the overperformance was in the range that indicated that 2018 would be a good year for Democrats (though not necessarily so good so as to turn Oklahoma (or even that Oklahoma congressional district) blue). What I'm saying is this: we need to be really cautious about touting special election results. A Democrat won. But a Democrat probably should've won. It's like beating New Mexico State 66-36 in Week 1--that's great. But we were supposed to win. And if we're giving up 36 points to New Mexico fucking State, uhhhhh . . . I don't like our chances next week against UCLA.

I found the Boutique Japan website (here is their blog entry on Izakayas) to be pretty helpful. Yeah--use bathroom slippers. But bathroom slippers stay at the bathroom door; don't wear them back to the table. Oh, and while it's super common to blow your nose at the table, it's considered very rude in Japan (though that didn't stop Mrs.LL from repeatedly doing so). And don't rub your chopsticks together to clear splinters; it implies that you think the restaurant uses cheap chopsticks.

Yeah--as noted upthread, we loved Tsujiki Outer Market for a sushi brunch. I really wish we had more time and had done it more than once. But as it turned out, we did it the day we were leaving for Kyoto, so we had a mid-afternoon train to catch and kind of had to leave before I was completely ready to go. We also really liked the Shimbashi neighborhood, as the photos indicate. It's completely what you imagine Tokyo as being. Go on Thursday and Friday nights--that's when the salarymen are going to be crowding into the izakayas and getting well and truly plastered. You'll have a blast. Near Shinjuku, go over to Omoide Yokocho (Piss Alley). It's a two-block area of tiny bars along a very narrow alley. I can't really explain it beyond that. I will tell you, particularly as some who says he has done minimal planning, you'd probably do well to get a guidebook to read on the plane. Not for particular sights--you'll figure that out on your own. But there are enough nuances to the whole culture that it'd made basic things like going to a bar a lot easier/much more enjoyable if you read up ahead of time.

Biden better hope presidents have absolute immunity, because he just committed a murder.

Clearing the channel to ship traffic is the first priority, and that's not going to be a small task, either.

That stadium is now 15 years old. As in, it's halfway through its anticipated life. And when you look at the newer stadiums (e.g., SoFi), it looks dated. Point being--don't expect this game to go to Jerryworld ever now that it is sewn up at the Cotton Bowl through 2036. In 2036, Jerryworld is going to be 27 years old and Stephen is going to be actively seeking a site for a new stadium.

My brother--when we're in San Francisco, I won't do it. The last couple times to Napa, Mrs.LL knows I am going to pull over at the scenic overlook before we get to the Golden Gate Bridge and she is driving across. I'm going to sit there and stare at my phone in the passenger seat as we go across. But there's no fucking way I'm driving it. The weird thing is--I'll walk out on it. I mean, not to the center. But I'll go out a hundred feet or so onto the bridge on the sidewalk. But no fucking way I'm driving.

As someone who has a very serious fear of bridges, yeah. This is definitely one that is going to cause some nightmares.

I don't want to speak for @mdmost, but I also have generally been sympathetic to Israel. And for a long time, there were good justifications for that sympathy. From a national-interest standpoint, Israel was a staunch ally in the Eastern Mediterranean facing Soviet-backed enemies. Its position near Suez and straddling the Eastern Med into the Middle East makes it strategically important. And in the binary world of the Cold War, if it wasn't going to be our ally, it was going to be the Soviets'. From an emotional standpoint, yeah--it's easy to agree that the Jews ought to have a safe space given the unpleasantries of not just the past century, but the centuries before that. And as one of the sponsors of the establishment of that safe space (along with the rest of the UNSC), we owe some obligation to ensure that it remains safe. But those justifications are rapidly fading into the ether of history. The Cold War is over. And while the Soviet threat is somewhat replaced by threats from China and Russia, Israel is not exactly a reliable ally in any sort of anti-Russian or anti-Chinese bloc. As we try to build alliances in the region to address regional threats, Israel is often more of a hinderance than a help. And while creating a safe space for Jews in the Levant made sense, I don't think we ever signed up to support a starvation genocide of the Palestinian Arabs. And if we did, we ought to un-sign right the fuck now. Because "Never Again" shouldn't be read as "Never Again to us, but maybe it's ok if it's by us against some other group." When Secretary Blinken was in Jerusalem last week, the Israelis announced the largest seizure of Palestinian land in the West Bank since 1993, with the land to be converted into settlements. That's not how you treat the foreign minister of your most important ally. And now Israel isn't sending a delegation that was summoned by the United States? As @Brisketexan asks, what exactly does Israel think the power dynamic is in this relationship? Israel obviously thinks that the United States is some sort of vassal state that owes it an unquestioning obligation to supply it arms and money in times of war. Israel should be disabused of that notion. If Israel wants to be an ally, then it can start acting like a fucking ally. But if it wants to be our feudal lord, then fuck that--we ought to declare our independence and cut Israel off.

FIFA is going to have a real issue with the basura fans in a couple years. That’s not the visual (or audio) they want coming out of the World Cup.

God, I do love this scoreline.

Let’s just hang until all the Mexicans vacate the premises.