Ghost of LL

But Nagorno-Karabakh is . . . landlocked?

1) I don't use "Turkiye" because I'm of a sufficiently advanced age that it takes me time to adjust to new things. But yes--that is the preferred spelling, and I ought to adopt it. Getting used to "Czechia" is also taking a bit of time. 2) The Turks deny the Armenian genocide for much the same reason Americans deny the genocide of the American Indians. I mean, it's not a pleasant thought to think about your ancestors committing genocide. And beyond that, once you acknowledge that your country committed a genocide, unpleasant ancillary questions arise. Like reparations. It's nice that you acknowledge this historical crime, but what are you going to do to remedy the injury? And there is something . . . I don't know exactly the right word, and I distinctly don't want to use the word "justifiable," so let's just say "unusual" . . . about the Armenian genocide. It came in the course of a war fought by the Ottoman Empire for its very survival, and it was motivated in large part by the exigencies of that war. Without World War I, the Armenian genocide doesn't happen. The Ottomans thought the Armenians were a potential fifth column at the heart of the country. And in some instances, Armenians did engage in acts of resistance against the Ottomans and gave aid and comfort to invading Russian forces. With a lot less basis, the United States interned its citizens of Japanese extraction based on their ancestry just a quarter-century later. The difference is that the United States sent the Japanese-Americans by train to camps, where they were fed, sheltered, and clothed. I mean, still really bad. But they weren't sent on a death march through the desert, raped and murdered in their thousands along the way, and then ditched at a random spot in the desert to fend for themselves and likely die. Now, at Turkish nationalist would point out that the United States handled it a bit better because it wasn't in mid-collapse as a result of a failing war effort. The Turkish nationalist might also point out that the American desert isn't populated by a people like the Kurds, who have an ancestral and bloody hatred of the people being transported. And the Turkish nationalist might argue that the murderous intent of a small number of governmental functionaries shouldn't be imputed to the state, which was governed and administered by people who had no intent to commit genocide (though they may have been consciously indifferent to the fate of the Armenians at the hands of the Kurds, their fellow Turks, and the desert). So the entire circumstance is murky, shrouded by the confusion of wartime secrecy and regime collapse. And ultimately, there is no Auschwitz; there are no gas chambers. Many of the incriminating documents were destroyed (though that act itself reflects the Turkish knowledge and complicity in the crime). What documents remained were left unexamined; there was no Nuremberg prosecution. And at the end of it, Turkiye--see, I'm learning--emerged as a secular Turkish ethno-state. And that couldn't happen if it were still populated by millions of Armenians. And the Turks are very proud of their country's founding from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire and the occupation of large parts of the Anatolian Peninsula by the Allied powers. And it really is a kick in the balls to point out that the bedrock on which that foundation is laid is the genocide of one of the Peninsula's nations. . . . so yeah--kind of exactly how Americans deny the genocide of the American Indians.

I'll just trace it back to World War I. Prior to World War I, the Armenians were scattered throughout the Ottoman Empire, but were heavily in Constantinople and Armenia. Those were two pretty important places. First, Armenia straddled the border between the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire, which were at war with one another during World War I. Second, Constantinople was the capital of the Ottoman Empire, and Russia had the longstanding ambition of seizing Constantinople (which they called Tsargrad) from the Ottomans. The Armenians were sympathetic to the Russians, as the Russians were also Christians and purported to protect Armenian interests. And so when the Russians advanced into the Ottoman Empire in 1915, the Armenians largely supported them. The Ottoman Turks consequently saw the Armenians as a nascent fifth column, which happened to reside in two strategic places. So the Turks rounded up the Armenians and genocided them. Not cool. But so anyway, the Armenians super-hate the Turks. And, well, the Turks pretty much hate the Armenians, too. The Azeris are a Turkic people who happen to be Muslim. So they have a close ethnic and religious bond with the Azerbaijanis. And Turkey has traditionally supported Azerbaijan. Since the first war, Turkey has closed its border with Armenia and has supplied Azerbaijan with weapons. On top of that is Turkey's--which is to say Recap Erdogan's--ambition to position Turkey as the leader of the Turkic peoples stretching from the Anatolian Peninsula to western China. Not just in Azerbaijan, but all the people in the -stans are all some flavor of Turkic. And Erdogan sees it as a historic Turkish mission to lead those people while also setting Turkey up strategically to be a real modern player in the global energy market. And then there's Israel, which has some weird historic . . . I don't know that I would say "alliance," but I would definitely say "friendliness" with Turkey. The Jews were largely tolerated in Palestine under the Ottoman Empire. And as a democracy and Nato member that is not Arab, Turkey has kind of shared America's affinity for Israel. And Israel and Turkey share interests in Syria and elsewhere. So Israel has also been selling Azerbaijan weapons. Oh, and of course, Israel hates Iran. And Iran hates Azerbaijan because there is a large Azeri population in northern Iran that has some asperations of seceding and joining up with Azerbaijan. It's kind of like Iraq and the Kurds--there are times when Tehran's writ doesn't run in the north of the country. So the Iranians are interested in helping Armenia. But Armenia's real protector . . . or at least the country that purports to be Armenia's protector . . . is Russia. But the thing is, Russia does a shitty job of actually protecting Armenia. It couldn't protect the Armenians in 1916. It can't protect them now. So really what this boils down to is Armenia picks shitty friends. And the Azerbaijanis, Turks, and Israelis know it. So there's this territory inside Azerbaijan--Nagorno-Karabakh. Its population is overwhelmingly Armenian. But it is inside Azerbaijan's internationally recognized borders. In the early 1990s, Armenia invaded and basically set up a state akin to what Russia did with Transnistria or South Ossetia. And Azerbaijan has kind of had to eat shit for thirty years because Russia would could to the aid of Armenia if it came down to it. But now Russia can't do shit; it's too busy losing a war against Ukraine. And nobody else is going to come help. So they're going to have to bend over and take it. And that's why there are protests in Yerevan against the government. The government is heavily pro-Russian. And that's always been the rule for Armenia: it is a Russian vassal. If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule? There is a reasonably strong pro-Armenia group in America owing to the fact that there are a fair number of Armenians here. Well, I mean . . . "strong" is a relative term. It's not going to push policy like AIPAC can. But it's probably stronger than the pro-Bangladeshi lobby. But it's nothing compared to the energy lobby. And Azerbaijan has oil. And Turkey is a highway for oil and gas transportation. So yeah--Armenia is going to get some nice words from us, but it's not getting any real support. It's certainly not going to get any help keeping territory that it's running inside Azerbaijan's internationally recognized borders.

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth. SMU plays at TCU at 11:00. Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future. Go to Joe T's for a late lunch. And then head down to Waco for the Texas game. Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

Dude, I love a good flag. But more than that, I love a bad flag. And this is a bad flag. It's just wretched. It looks like the defender ship from Space Invaders is coming in to dock, . . . and now the more I think about it, maybe it's a fucking fantastic flag.

It's actually Mrs.LL's World Elite card; I'm just an additional cardholder. She uses it to keep her status up; I get club access. But you're right--it's not a great card. I would ditch it altogether if AmEx would ever open the Centurion Lounge at AUS. But I think that has fallen completely by the wayside.

I don't think the media deal is that big a challenge. This is for football only; basketball and other sports are separate. And in football, the Big12 gets its media deal; the AAC gets its. So if you get relegated, you lose out on the Big12 money the next year. So that is to say you lose out on about $25M. Which gets to the ADs' objection. And you're right about that. It would take some truly urgent circumstances to get the schools to agree to that. But right now, the PAC2 and MWC are facing exactly those urgent circumstances. So it might work.

I argued for years that the Big12 ought to do something similar with the AAC. As we see this week, the Big12 has tons of inventory that absolutely nobody cares about. Oklahoma State @ Iowa State? Texas Tech @ West Virginia? Who the fuck cares? Those are shitty games between programs that have limited followings. But that Iowa State-Baylor game in November if the loser is getting relegated to the AAC? Are you watching that? Fuck yeah, you are.

Mrs.LL was at the airport bar with a bunch of y'all. She was flying AA through CLT, and her flight got a rolling delay. She did have a funny story of one guy on y'all's flight who was drunkenly hitting on her. Same. I'm pretty AA loyal because (1) status and (2) my credit card gets me into the AAdmirals Club. The Club isn't great (especially at AUS), but if there's a flight cancelation, you can go up there and the very pleasant attendants will take care of rebooking you. JFK is a 10-minute helicopter ride from the 30th Street Heliport.

Well, a lot of us have killed about 5/6ths of our brain cells since then, so that checks out.

And one thing I didn't count on with the NIL and Portal environment is the rise of the mid-majors. Now we see plenty of teams like Wyoming and Tulane and Miami (Ohio) getting players that are plenty good through the transfer portal. And it makes sense for those players. So they can't start at Alabama--go play at Ohio (not State) for a year and see if you can't then transfer to USC or Ohio (yes State) and get the big NIL money. That doesn't mean Wyoming is going to challenge for a national championship. But it does mean that Wyoming is going to be plenty good enough to beat a mid-level Big12 team. And that's where the Big12 is, and where it's going to be. There are no more cupcakes for any Big12 team after the departures of Texas and OU. They're going to have 12 real games every year, because none of them are good enough to beat teams that used to be considered "cupcakes," but now are actually pretty decent. If you're a fan of a Big12 team going forward, that's probably kind of dispiriting. I mean, you could easily enter conference play with no team being undefeated. But as a college-football fan with no real interest in the Big12, it's really kind of entertaining. The Big12 offers a scenario in which a mid-tier program can "upset" a "power conference" program in any given week. And that's pretty fun.

Not only that, but it's Dr. Pepper products only. And Dr. Pepper makes a shitty mixer.

Strong agree. The Stars probably have the best in-game presentation in the business.

I did that a couple years ago when we were in Africa. The pool itself doesn't have just a whole lot of flow over it. It's kind of like an infinity pool with just about a half-foot of water going over the rock that separates the pool from the Falls. So to go over, you'd probably have to purposefully slide yourself over. Even so, there's a reason the camera doesn't show her feet. That's because there are two guides with her, one holding each ankle. And then there's a third guy back there just as an extra hand. Getting that photo isn't the dangerous part. The dangerous part is getting out to Devil's Pool. That's where you're walking out on very slippery rocks that have about a foot of flow going over them. One misstep there, and you can go for a tumble and be swept just a little bit downstream over the Falls. That's where you really rely on your three guides. They've been doing this since they were kids, and they know exactly where to step (and, more importantly, where not to step). They lead the way. You have one guy holding each hand while you take a step. And then between steps you grab the hand of the next guy. So anytime you're taking a step, you have two guys holding you. But anyway, you get out there and look down, and the view is amazing. This video doesn't even really do it justice. I went at a somewhat higher flow time (early July), so the flow was such that you couldn't see anywhere close to the bottom. All you see is the mist, which is actually coming back up towards you. It's just staring into a wild maelstrom with a background roar that is almost deafening.

And my point is that Gen Z doesn't care about college football. It certainly doesn't care what makes college football "special." It's here for the gimmicks. And that "bloat" is needed to attract them.

But here's the thing: there are a lot of things that aren't working at other schools. Take a look a college football attendance around the country. It's down markedly over the last ten years. And that reduction is led by the student sections. There's a big reason why Texas and a whole lot of other schools are experimenting with "filler." There are a lot of reasons to opt for the couch rather than going to the game. Texas, and every other athletic department in the country, is looking at that "filler" to provide a reason to get off the couch and come to the game. But for a lot of our students and younger alumni, the game isn't a draw at all. For them, there are a lot of reasons to go do anything else on a Saturday. The "filler" is intended to provide a reason to go to a game that they otherwise have no interest in.

I have really bad news for you and the rest of us old guys out there--the Athletics Department is not going to cater to "fans of college football" to the exclusion of "a broader audience." Because the students today are broadly not fans of college football. I don't know if you've been paying attention to the interests and viewing habits of Gen Z, but they're not into watching sports (college or professional). And if all you have on offer is 1) football and 2) a band playing Wabash Cannonball (fucking seriously?), you're not going to attract a whole lot of students. And that means in ten years, you're not going to have a whole lot of people making donations to the LHF and sitting in those expensive west side stands. So yeah, Milo--

But therein lies the problem for the GQP. That means they're primarying almost all of the GQP members of the House. And that's a real problem for them because that means they're going to end up with a lot of unelectable general-election candidates. The House districts are tiny. There are 150 house districts. That means that each House district only represents about 200,000 people. With districts that small, it is hard to put into place a very effective gerrymander. That's reflected in the partisan makeup of the chamber: there are 83 Republicans, which at 55% pretty closely matches Abbott's share of the vote. That also means that you have a lot of districts that are close-ish. And in those close-ish districts, you have moderate Republicans, who are the only kinds of Republicans who are going to win that district. I mean, you can primary Morgan Meyer if you want. You can replace Morgan on the general-election ballot with the biggest MAGA crazy you can find. That'll show Morgan--that RINO cuck. Oh, but then a Democrat is going to win that seat in November. Because that district isn't voting for a MAGA crazy. So yeah--this GQP civil war is going to be fun.

And now Patrick says he wants to audit the House's expenditures on the impeachment trial. The GQP civil war is here, friends. It's going to get ugly.

Two observations here: 1) LIU may have the best look in college football. First, you got the "Sharks." That's just a great mascot. Who the fuck isn't scared of sharks? And it's a mascot that works for Long Island--right, Chief Brody? But beyond that, those uniforms are fucking great. Yellow is an underutilized color in sports uniforms. But when it's used--see generally, the Oakland A's, Los Angeles Lakers--it works. But see Nashville Predators. And matching yellow with that light blue works well. 2) That LIU running back is just painfully slow.

Army. Baylor lost to Texas State in Week 1. Then Texas State lost to UTSA in Week 2. And the Roadrunners then lost to Army on Saturday.

This next special is going to be fire. Abbott and Patrick want vouchers. I don’t think the House is in much of a mood to do deals.

Georgia is just getting their asses kicked.

Georgia looks like ass.