Codaxx

Both teams are pass first. They run the ball effectively, because the get advantageous numbers. The key is stopping the run with light to honest boxes. If you have to bring a safety down to help with the run, you are toast.

Washington WR have an amazing catch radius. Odunze is 1 of the best 50/50 ball WRs in the nation and the others are also very good. The key for both defenses is pretty similar. The team that can make the opposing QB uncomfortable will likely win this game. That means getting pressure. Just as important is taking away the #1 option. Both QBs will dice you up, if you let them throw to their #1 option. Make them hold the ball and go through progressions and you have a chance. Both QBs have big arms and can get sloppy with their footwork (throwing off their backfoot).

Offensively, Washington and Texas are very similar. Both are big play offenses. Both are reliant on the passing game. Washington pass game is almost a perfect barbell. They throw a ton short and long.

Washington is elite on offense. They have a NFL QB and 3 NFL Wrs, They have arguably the best set of skill players in the playoffs. The OL isnt a mauling, scary OL like Michigan, but they dont give up sacks. I highly doubt that Texas stops Washington. I would be very happy, if Texas held Washington to 24 pts.

Moneylien is Texas -185 and Washington +150.. Take out the vig and its something like Texas has a 62% chance to win.

Here are the 2 passing defenses Games ATT Comp PCt Yards Yards/Att TD Int Rating Washington 13 521 311 59.7 3421 6.6 22 16 122.64 Texas 13 464 278 59.9 3131 6.7 19 16 123.2 They are almost identical. I would disagree on well rounded. I think Michigan is the most complete team in these playoffs.

Not the greatest write up I have read Harris was in his first season with the Chargers after serving as a defensive coordinator and secondary coach at Georgia Southern in 2022. That year, the Eagles had one of the worst defenses in the FBS, though their roster and talent level was a significant reason why. Harris spent the prior four seasons coaching defensive backs at Washington where his units ranked among the best in the Pac-12. In fact, during the 2021 season, Washington allowed just 1,720 yards passing and six touchdowns through the air — both fewest in the nation — while grabbing 10 interceptions. His Huskies secondary units included first-round NFL Draft choice Trent McDuffie and second-round pick Kyler Gordon among multiple All-Pac-12 first- and second-team selections. While Harris was the secondary coach at Washington, the unit was largely led by former Huskies head coach Jimmy Lake. Therefore, it’s tough to say who deserves credit for its success, though it’s notable the unit regressed following Lake’s departure. https://www.onlygators.com/12/10/2023/florida-football-chargers-assistant-will-harris-set-to-be-hired-as-next-gators-defensive-backs-coach/

There should be a thread and polls for the Surly Awards..

Those are teams with nothing to lose. Texas seemed to make the proper adjustments to the 3 high as the season progressed. Mostly throwing out of power looks. This is the playoffs. You make tweaks and some changes, but completely changing your identity is very risky. I also dont see Washington adapting a strategy designed to slow the game down. That would seem to be counter-productive to their chances to win

3 high safety look that pretty much every Big 12 team tried vs Texas this year. Sard and Ewers are definitely familiar with the look at this pt. I dont know if Washington runs it, but installing a new philosophy in a month for your defense is a bit sketchy.

That depends on which side of the ball you are looking at.. Michigan gives up 0.81 pts per drive (#1) Bama 1.64 pts/drive (#19) Washington 2.03 pts/drive (#45) Texas is #13 at 1.45.. This is the best match-up for the offense by far

X was a shoelace tackle away from a 85 yard quick screen in the 1Q vs OSU..

The Texas screen game has been lethal. Screen to Brooks vs Washington got around 40 yards for a TD last year. Just get the ball to speed in space and let them work. This isnt GDGD's screen game.

Sark has been vocal that Texas is a throw to open up the run team this year, so that is highly likely. I should have put the caveat that the short passing game/screen game can be the extension of the run game. Main point being Texas loses its DL advantage, if the TOP looks similar to the bowl game.

Texas is going to need a consistent rushing game for this to happen. If this turns into a passing centric track meet, that will negate the Texas advantage on the DL. A couple long time consuming drives by the Texas offense will go a long way. If memory serves me well Washington stole the Sark game plan last year. They threw heavy in the first half and leaned later on the run when the Texas DL had their hands on their hips. Washington dominated the TOP (35_ minutes).

This is an awesome theory, but did you notice Texas was seeded above Bama? That kind of makes this entire post seem like complete BS..

Washignton rush defense has taken a big step back.. They gave up 3.52 per attempt last year. (25th in the nation) That is at 4.26 this year. (77th in the nation) There sack % has fallen from 7.66% (30th in the nation ) to 3.51% (129th) Just basing off those 2 stats, it would seem their front has taken a step back Redzone TD% has taken a hit also.. 118th in the nation currently allowing 70.5% of redzone appearances to result in TDs (118th in the nation) That is down from 58.5% and 60th in the nation last year

Not sure you have it, but wondering if someone has their pressure rate? I see them 128th of 133 schools in Sack percentage (big drop from 30th) Texas is actually 61st (up from 101 last year) https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/sack-pct?date=2023-12-09

I am curious as to what happened to the Washignton pass rush.. Last year they had 37 sacks.. 1 sack per 11.3 attempts this year 19 sacks.. 1 sack every 27.4 attempts

WE shall see. Trice vs Banks will be an important match-up. Even with Trice's play, Washington is dead last in sacks in the Pac 10. That number is actually worse than it appears. Washington is the only defense to see over 500 passing attempts. They have seen 97 more passing attempts than the average Pac 10 defense and still comfortable in last place in sacks.

The game may simply come down to which defense can make the QB uncomfortable Washington is great in pass pro.. They have allowed a sack every 44 attempts. They will face a Texas defense that gets a sack every 14.5 attempts.. Something has to give there.. strength on strenght TExas gives up a sack every 16.6 attempts.. Not great.. Washington is pretty bad at getting sacks.. they get a sack every 26.9 attempts.. Weakness on Weakness

That will be a good match-up.. I am not sure how good the guards are for Washignton, but Trice is likely going against Banks. Banks is a projected 1st round OT in next year's draft.

Texas gives up 4.98 yards per play 16th in the nation Utah is 5.48 and 48th in the country.. Texas gives up 1.45 pts per drive the in the country Utah is at 1.84 and 29th in the country Texas 2.87 yards per rush 5th in nation vs 3.22 and 15th for Utah Texas 6.7 yards/att (29th) vs Utah 7.0 (46th) Total yards doesnt factor in pace of play. Utah defense sees about 90% of the plays Texas sees.

That was a strange response. That was a team that lost their offensive identity to the draft (Rojo and Bijan) and were a dropped TD pass from taking the lead in the 4Q. Texas defense has improved since then. The offense is completely different with AD Mitchell in it. Then there is the improvement at QB. How much improvement did a 30 year old Penix make from year 5 to year 6 playing, compared to Ewers going from year 1 to year 2?

Need to get Mukuba from portal and rush his enrollment