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Muny_Tex

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Everything posted by Muny_Tex

  1. So what is the actual containment/mitigation + go-forward suppression plan at this point? This is an honest question. There is clearly no forecasted weather relief whatsoever, and the firefighter conditions on the ground have (and continue to) massively deteriorate given the apparent hydrant issues. And everytime I open this thread there's seemingly another blaze brewing in heavy populated (and enormously/pricelessly culturally significant) areas. Is it now just a sole reliance on air support (when wind conditions allow)? Along with waiting for "70 Oregon Forest Service personnel" to arrive? I am not trying to be flippant, I truly am at a loss for why every surplus fire asset and emergency response team on the entire West Coast is not en route to the LA Basin right now. Even if by some miracle the fire conditions improve, what about the thousands of overnight homeless people? Wholesale destruction of public service infrastructure? Decimation of schools? Not to mention the rapidly increasing probability of civil unrest (or opportunistic havoc) once it becomes clearer that situation is officially apocalyptic? I am admittedly very far from ground truth/real-world facts, and perhaps and being overly alarmist (pray to God I am)...but this is starting to give some pretty strong Katrina-like vibes right before the complete unraveling that did not stabilize until GEN Honore and the 82nd ABN arrived. I just saw a PIVOTAL L.A.public figure literally petrified with befuddlement on broadcast television....are we sure this is team we want to go to war with? And then lead the humanitarian response?
  2. Guy persevered (rather impressively, IMO) through two psychotic left-wing invasions in less than 5 years. UT could (and absolutely would) be in drastically worse shape today had many others been in charge. Very easy role/position to criticize but extremely difficult to effectively manage given the cultural/political dynamics. It is both unfortunate and embarrassing for the State of Texas if straw that broke camel's back was in fact the meddling from Abbott, Paxton, et al
  3. Roth conversion makes most sense IMO given her income situation. Presuming she is single and stays below $49K of topline earnings (including the converted funds) that will keep her in that low 12% fed tax bracket and offset a lot of the negatives. I am also 99% certain that she will NOT be subject to the 10% early withdrawal penalty as long as the converted funds remain in the Roth untouched for 5+ years...which further boosts the benefit in favor of moving out of the 401k. I'm also 99% certain that the 401k admin will NOT do a federal/state withholding on conversions, so she will need to be disciplined enough to keep $1k or so extra 'cash-on-hand' when that tax finally comes due...or I guess hope that her tax refund is sufficient to cover that delta. My advice to her would be to get that $10k into a Roth starting our as cash only.....then DCA $1k per month into a couple of standard index funds and then concurrently try to save-up $2k more over course of the year to finish Nov/Dec with similar "deposits". This will give her a specific investment "goal" right off the bat and also get her some visibility into market trends without overwhelming her. Most importantly, the DCA strategy protects against the psychological outlier risk of her dropping $10k (which I assume is a lot of money in her mind) and then market immediately taking a shit and her potentially swearing off investing forever. Building off that early momentum, I would then encourage her to build her career/budget framework with 5% auto-contribution to new employers 401K (assuming her company match will be somewhere in that range)...along with another 5% into her Roth going forward. Given the $12k head-start she will have given herself with the Roth, the accompanying 401k should evolve into pretty nice pre/post tax combination for her long-term future.
  4. Don't know enough to properly evaluate Walker; but I was not even remotely enthused about overpaying for Bregman.
  5. @trophIf you're in that situation based on "total value" I can only imagine the horrors of your property tax. At least you're rich?
  6. This was very thoughtful and well-written...only exception was the improper usage of "its" (you kept using the contraction of it's (e.g. it is), rather than the possessive form) which short-circuited my OCD. Main takeway I had was the computation limits/scalability issues which I had never seen analyzed before. If the fundamental use case is "bro, it's gonna completely remove the middle man and make all exchanges safer, cheaper, more efficient" then it certainly appears quite moronic through the lens of such poor transactional bandwidth. This is obviously hyper-simplistic, but as far as I'm concerned Venmo already figured this shit out 15 years ago. All the BTC action since then is essentially just greater-fool theory expressed to the most extreme degree imaginable.
  7. Also, thought for a minute longer about my favorite teams. I think Top 5 would be: 1.) 2019 (by far) 2.) 2004 (peak Roy O, Cy Clemens, Kent/Beltran/Berkman all badasses, and last flash of Bagwell being good) 3.) 1998 (OG Killer B's, Lima Time, Summer of Big Unit) 4.) 2015 (Return to legitimacy/excitement, #ClubAstros, Correa ROY) 5.) 2020 (Salvaged worst year of humanity with a lot of grit/heart and damn near pulled off the miracle)
  8. My post was made in jest, but they'd definitely sell some tickets (and would probably be an HEB marketing depts wet dream). And if by some miracle they stayed healthy, would very likely be lot more productive than vast majority of lineup configurations that were rolled out last year.
  9. George is owed $50M for his final two years in TOR, I'm sure they'd dump that back for almost nothing in return. So do that, tell Bregman to take the hometown discount, and get the whole band back together with a Correa trade. I bet Yuli would be glad to come hang out for the league minimum too. 2019 was my favorite squad of all-time, not really a close second. Tucker and Framber both sucked on that team anyway, so all the more season to trade them now and protect the reunion vibes.
  10. Am I correct that Correa is essentially 4 yrs / $134M at this point? If so, I would way rather have that than 6+ years of Bregman overpaid and only one remaining year of Framber. EDIT: He'd be a great 3B (has done it already for WBC), and it would probably prolong his prime / reduce injury risk
  11. The bear case against Austin (especially as a family destination) is much different than Texas statewide. We will need to swing over to Cloak Room to spell out the details (and I'd certainly prefer not), but surrendering downtown (and many valued spaces) to violent bums/junkies and turning public safety into an ideological debate instead of a core imperative is a good place to start.
  12. There are currently 500+ homes for sale with Austin addresses listed between $600k - $1.1M --368 of those homes have been on the market more than 30 days --276 of those homes have been on the market more than 60 days --200 of those homes have been on the market more than 90 days Seems to me there are a lot of people clinging to hope of swift and significant rate improvement; otherwise it's gonna be very steep drop once these sellers finally capitulate. I personally think the AUS bear case runs much deeper (regardless of rate conditions), because the main drivers of the 15+ year boom (affordability, quality of life, weather, adults in charge) are basically all massive losing propositions now. If you can afford to insulate yourself in Westlake (or I guess parts of Lake Travis), then yeah good for you...otherwise I think the cachet train has run almost entirely out of steam in Austin-proper.
  13. ^^Versus the 2021/early 2022 peak boom (or I guess bubble?), yes.....But Spring of '20 was still pretty calm while folks were reacting to the initial shock + gauging their personal level of impact, IIRC. I bought a place in Brentwood during Fall '20 and bid for several others in Central/West in '21....it was massively different climate w.r.t. price action + competition. My takeaway is that we're pretty much "back to normal" on most pricing now relative to pre-Covid in a lot of areas (78746 will probably remain a permanent outlier)....Except rates are still 2.0-3.0% higher than 2019 which I think still spells some trouble unless conditions improve quickly. Same point I made about condos few posts/pages ago, just interesting to see same trend reflected in SFH now as well.
  14. Doing some Redfin browsing, and came across an interesting market/pricing anecdote today. Mid-tier, minimally updated South Austin home on a large/functional/nice-looking 0.5 acre lot. Price history shows it listed for $615k back in May 2020, went under contract only 4 days later (presumably for over-ask based on that era). Came on the market this week for $595k, by all accounts in good/equivalent condition as before (including a brand-new HVAC). How many of us would have predicted cumulative price depreciation of -5% (or more) 4 years ago?
  15. I presume this was already covered up-thread, but lack of situational awareness on the fake punt was also really bad. Banks is a jackass and a personal embarrassment to the program. Also CDC's "gay cowboy dad" costume needs a rest until this team wins a meaningful game.
  16. This is probably the hardest game of the year to handicap. One thing I absolutely would not touch is the O/U, as this could be anything from 4Q dogfight to a wire-to-wire Texas blowout. If I had to bet the number, I would take Texas ADJ Line at -9.5 for +200 @ 1.25 units, and also place a separate half-unit on Georgia ML for +125. That gives me the upside payout for the UT beatdown (which I think is prob 70% likely), along with some insurance against an unforeseen bedshitting by the Longhorns. If Horns win close then I lose both, but I just don't see that scenario unfolding today. Overall, Texas has a great chance to dominate this game based on the exceptional strength of the defense, along the running game + schematic combo that will enable Sark to essentially "Quinn-proof" the offense. The extra wrinkle with Arch makes Kirby's gameplanning a lot more complicated, and also (FINALLY!) implies a willingness to swap QBs altogether if Ewers completely implodes again. Only thing that gives me pause is fact that Beck has not played a good full game basically all season (he's played like 3-4 good "halfs"). If he finally plays to his potential, and Etienne is healthy enough to give Dawgs balance on offense then there might not be enough endurance from the Texas D (or any team in the country) to keep 30+ points off the board.
  17. I was surprised/confused as to why $MSTR sold off all of its early AM surge, but then I saw that Cramer referred to BTC as a "can't lose investment" today...so I guess the kiss of death has finally arrived
  18. Congrats to all the virgins, incels, weirdos, aspies, autists, etc who never lost their resolve. I'm sure the celebratory OnlyFans purchases will be extra sweet. As a butthurt no-coiner, I blame Peter Schiff for my poverty. Although I still believe he is "right" at the fundamental level re: crypto, it obviously doesn't make a shit when everyone else is teabagging 20X gainers all over our faces. "It's ironic that #Bitcoin only hit $100k by buying off politicians and getting in bed with government. Without expected government intervention, this milestone never would have been hit. What couldn't be done in a free market was achieved through the cohesive power of the state."
  19. Good insights all around. Continuing the thought experiment: Let's take a $190k condo in Central/West; with a $350/mo HOA. Presuming 10% down with a 30-year fixed at ~7.0%, that puts you right around $1750/mo "all-in" including taxes, HOA, and walls-in coverage. Meanwhile, market rent for the same exact unit is $1350/mo...so your "paid premium" to own is essentially $400/mo (or more generously $250 if you apply payment toward principal), plus another $20k cash upfront needed just to get the ball rolling. Certainly easy to understand the lack of enthusiasm among younger buyers under those conditions. The problem then for incumbent owners (and perhaps on some level, the market writ large), is how much price AND rate correction is still needed to swing those scales back in favor of buying from the cost/benefit perspective. For the sample unit noted above, rough math says it will takes a $170k sale price at a 4.0% rate to get the monthly 'out-the-door' south of $1400....so another -10% price drop (nearly 40% off the peak!) plus meteoric rate improvement.....notgreatbob.gif On related note, this is why I also think TCAD/CoA are gonna have a reckoning of their own once these "fully normalized" sale prices finally come across the desk and require across-the-board markdowns of anticipated property taxes.
  20. Austin condo market seems pretty bad; at least at the entry-level. There's a lot of seemingly nice stuff in 78756 / 78757 / 78759 / 78731 for under $250k, and several perfectly decent 1/1's under $200k (thought those days were over)....nearly all of which have been steadily price-dropping for a while. Several of the lowest-price also seem to have already tried to lease at $1350ish to no avail. Back of envelope appears to be about a ~25% drop in market value versus the 2021 peak. I'm surprised there is such tepid demand for what is rapidly becoming normal-ish prices. Even with the shitty rates that's still a pretty good proposition for anyone who plans to own/occupy for 3-5 years.
  21. -5.5 seems like the right number; I was very surprised to see it open at -7.5....I was expecting -4.5 Interested to see where the final action nets out, as I think the normies will probably overlook the two most significant aspects of this matchup: The exceptional ability of the Texas defense and the abject suckassedness of Ewers. I don't particularly like the spread on either side, but am very intrigued by adjusted-line UNDER.... Something like U44.5 looks most appealing, and currently nets +140. I expect Sark to be conservative and leverage max running game to help conceal the stench of Quinn's pussy....while Elko will likely play not to lose and end up forfeiting any chance at explosive plays. For those reasons, I can see Aggy staying in striking distance all the way through 4Q before having a desperation turnover on downs, which may enable Texas to backdoor cover with an add-on TD in final minutes...but seems like a coin flip either way.
  22. 1.) Those of you decrying the irredeemable nature of machismo culture should take a look at the final candidate pool (and religious affiliation of the winner) for the Mexican Presidential election that just concluded. You then might want to take look at the stated platform + policy stances of the Morena Party that now has a stranglehold on that entire country before you carry on any further with your abject stupidity about political realities. 2.) American voters of all races/colors/creeds will enthusiastically elect a female POTUS (in the same manner they elected a black man by big margins, twice) the moment a female emerges with genuine personal appeal and sincere regard for issues that matter to them. The "gender part" of the Clinton and Harris debacles is far less relevant than the fact they were both hand-picked via coronation from a universally-despised establishment machine....and then doubled-down by running tone-deaf "I know better than you!" campaigns right into the blade of a populist buzzsaw.
  23. Maybe positioning AOC, Nancy Pelosi, Michelle Obama, and Taylor Swift as the face of the party does not resonate with young (non gay) men.
  24. I think less than a week after I typed this the rates began surging upward again, so this definitely ain't happenin' anymore. I also was pretty excited about my $200 Astros WS/Longhorns CFP combo parlay that would've paid out $30k....until it was reduced to rubble. See yall in 2025....
  25. Need help understanding the "If Trump loses PA he cannot win the election" narrative... Assuming GA (16), NC (16), NV (6), and NE (5) all go for GOP, and Harris takes both PA (19) and Wisconsin (10)....then doesn't Michigan (15) ultimately determine the winner? And based on that presumption....Arizona doesn't really matter since neither candidate can get to 270 without winning Michigan? What am I missing? Why does PA get so much more hyper-focus and media attention than Michigan?
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