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Muny_Tex

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Everything posted by Muny_Tex

  1. @CleverNickname I think you are overlooking the pummelfucking you will receive from TCAD in exchange for turning a homestead + over-65 exempted property into a rental....and if the market starts to surge up again, that's only going to worsen. That said, I don't think you can justify any expectation of ~20% price recovery in foreseeable future given Austin is one of the softest markets in the country right now. I believe there has been a substantial downward pressure on the rental market as well. Yes interest rates will likely improve, but the corresponding increase in supply does not bode well for incumbent owners. The pitfalls of land-lording are also well-documented on this thread; and even "good tenants" do not make anyone immune to plumbing, HVAC, or other maintenance issues that are most common on older homes. Not to mention ANY vacancy period beyond 1 month is going to rapidly diminish your margins relative to the alternatives. Conversely, you can still get close to 5% risk-free in many treasury/CD funds...which generates close to $2k/mo in perpetuity if you throw $450K+ in there...which is far superior to the downside risks IMO. If the home was in an up-and-coming market (appreciation play) or you had a personal longterm use-case (e.g. give to kids as starter home, or to retire there) then it's a very different calculus. But that doesn't seem to be the case, and transitioning grammy into assisted living is probably gonna be no small endeavor on its own....seems ill-advised to add more complexity/asspain to that equation that may not even provide any incremental $$.
  2. It would be v.helpful if Framber (and SFG) went ahead and stomped out any delusion Seattle has for getting back in the division race today. If not, the Astros upcoming stretch of PHL/KC/CIN (with no days off) does not track particularly well against Mariners block of TB/LAA/OAK
  3. I'm not generally prone to violence, but if that ~200 person gagglefuck railroaded me off the 3-mile loop I would probably end up in Huntsville for 20+ years. I am continuously baffled by the psychotic obsession with destroying any remnant of livability in Austin.
  4. Dear @Wulaw Horn (and other SMEs): Can pls you help me ballpark what a "competitive" closing cost/fees package would look in today's climate for a **VA IRRL** Re-Fi (with no cash-out)? Call it a $400k loan amount for sake of discussion. I recall rule of thumb being rate improvement of >1% usually makes sense (espec if you intend to stay in house long-term), but that VA IRRL's are often good bit cheaper to obtain....therefore the ROI/break-even can occur closer to 0.5-0.75%? I'm sitting at 5.625% right now, so may not have a slam-dunk opportunity for quite a while longer (or maybe ever?)...but still would be nice to have a "target range" established in case things fall my way rate-wise (and overall economy doesn't unravel in the process). Thanks as always.
  5. I worked at Big 4 for three years after grad school as a Senior Consultant, left right before promotion to Manager...I averaged about $120k annually and left with an $11k "vested" pension benefit; which I chose to rollover into my new employer's 401k plan. I think the alternative options (aside from lump-sum payout) were like $56/mo for life starting immediately (lol), or something around $160/mo at retirement age. Had a stayed like ~10 more years and continued to accrue at commensurate salary increases (e.g. Senior Manager at $220k/year), it presumably would've become a reasonably nice financial supplement for later life. In any event, you definitely don't need to be on Partner track to maximize those type of comp/benefit trajectories. There are plenty of Big 4 pathways (particularly in technology sector) where individual contributors can stay "topped out" indefinitely in something like a Specialist Master role (with plenty of good bonus incentives) without any further promotion/advancement expectations. In my experience, the "up or out" mantra seemed to slow down pretty quickly once you make Manager....As long as you're making the firm (and your sponsoring Partner) money, nobody really cares about your personal agenda. EDIT: General advice, do not work in management consulting if personal values, professional ethics, or work-life harmony are of remote importance to you. Conversely, if you have sociopathic tendencies and/or define individual success solely through the lens of personal finances then you probably will feel right at home (and may also find many like-minded people on this website).
  6. Thread resonates for me as I recently did a major "downgrade" that is paying off wonderfully. I initially bought a brand new 2024 Subaru Crosstrek as a replacement/upgrade for my 2017 Civic. Drove it for 12 months and never got comfortable with all the safety features (constant alerts, beeps, etc that were hassle to deactivate), along with the giant fucking iPad-sized infotainment system that was always in my peripheral vision. Sold it to Carmax (fortunately for close to original price), and bought a 2015 Forester with ~160k miles from a local lady for $3600. Put $1200 to address some overheating + a/c issues and it's been flawless so far. Came with a Thule roof rack and the CD player is nails in the mountains whenever cell service is shot...got a bunch of good discs on eBay for couple of bucks each. I hope to never drive another modern "smart" car for the foreseeable future.
  7. ^^^Very good insight; although I would peg the realtor worthlessness index closer to 97%. For that reason, I think this saga ends with a range of flat-fee / self-service tools that enable buyers to "self-represent" at a much higher frequency....which is a big net positive for the consumer once people with moderate education + basic business sense realize it's not that big of a deal to do it alone. (Note: It is a way bigger/more precarious deal to SELL without an agent, this concept would/should solely apply on the buyer side). I guess Redfin is trying to protect their existing (albeit ineffective) model with their in-house agents, but I'd think they (or even someone like Rocket) could do very well if they launched some sort of "Power Buyer" package for like $450 that included a background check, mortage prequal, and ~30 minute video and follow-up Zoom that drills-down on the basic rudiments of an offer (Option Period, Earnest Money, Appraisals, Inspections, etc). Once complete, those solo buyers would be able to access lockboxes to view homes on MLS (with certain conditions) and then fill out some sort of online template that generates into a DocuSign-ready contract offer. This same package would include pre-vetted inspectors, lenders, appraisers, title co's etc who will turnkey the rest of the key milestones once things get rolling. Not a perfect fit for everyone, but very much in the realm for sizable segment of people who know how to make coherent phone calls, write complete sentences, and use a calculator. And on the other hand, if seller's don't want to partner with amateur hour buyers then that's their prerogative (and will likely cost them $$ in form of concessions to cover that extra 2%), and presumably will justify the old-guard collecting their commissions as before...just through a different avenue.
  8. What is the tax liability on the $21K cash-out? Certainly hope it's $0 given the post-tax nature of the payments and massive aggregate loss..but wouldn't rule out another screw job to add further insult to injury. My math says 27 yrs of premiums, times 12 mo's a year....makes 324 monthly payments thus far. At the premium rate of $161/mo that is $52,164 in sunk costs thus far? Jesus man... In any event, I would just take back whatever $$$ you can salvage now....put in in a high-yield savings account, divide it by ~24, and then just dollar-cost-average that amount (plus your normal $161/mo + any HYSA interest-earned) back into a normie index fund on a monthly basis over the next two years and then re-assess your financial needs/goals. These assholes have already rug-pulled you once, they're just keep moving the goalposts except now you're gonna get bled out at a materially-higher rate. P.S. I'm v.sorry this happened to you...You had good intentions of trying to be prudent with your kids' security at heart....This was not some greed-driven deal, which makes the nature of the scam (and those who perpetrated it) that much more disgusting.
  9. I'm not a guru, but you might wanna evaluate your (+ S/O's) job security as part of your risk/reward calculus. Presuming your "free ReFi" (and more likely, new deal with a competitor) will need to be re-underwritten, would hate to see yall get caught up in a layoff in midst of trying to get new loan. This is just my own conjecture, but I would think the only thing likely to create "oh wow, really?!" type of rate drop in next ~6 months would be some severe recession shock and/or job market cascade downward...which may cause collateral damage to many would-be buyers + refi'ers. (Side note: this is what I've been alluding to over the past year when telling the lender crowd to be careful what they wish for). If your income situation is airtight, then fully agree to shop around/let it ride etc...trend line is most certainly gonna be in your favor. But otherwise, may be wise to just take the W now (which is still gonna be meaningful $$ savings, espec with @Wulaw Horn or the other cats here) and take worst case scenario out of the equation.
  10. Man I hate this. I'm glad you are safe/secure now, but also very sorry to know you're still a ways away from fully healed recovery. I will always root/pray/wish for you and your mom, and hope that someday somehow someway yall can find the peace, stability, and better future you both deserve. I know you're not suicidal right now, but still owe it to yourself to reflect (and/or write down) all the reasons you have to be alive....even if it's centered around aiming for better tomorrow. It often darkest before the dawn, so just stay the course, remain true to yourself, loyal to your mom, and trust that all of this eventually shall pass.
  11. RIP to an American icon. The first video clip I ever watched on a computer was The Catch. This was 1992 led by my 2nd grade teacher (RIP also) who was a huge baseball fan. Both the athleticism and technology were (and remain) fascinating.
  12. Thank you v.much for the insight/perspective. This is likely a one-time event, as I am trying to optimize excess cash obtained from rental property sales last year....otherwise, I wouldn't be able to stay net positive on bills/overhead/savings at those levels of contribution. While post-tax augments would typically be the wiser long-term bet for reasons you mentioned, my AGI reduction plan above will make us poor enough (by razor's edge) to qualify for the Earned Income Tax Credit...which should yield ~$10K in immediate ROI via federal + state tax relief plus the corresponding investment benefits...creating a win-win where I then roll that "bonus" money into backdoor Roth and/or 529 supplements.
  13. Thanks for the reply, I've used back-door Roth in previous years when my income was too high for regular Roth. However, back-door is not advantageous toward this year's goal of lowering my overall taxable income...since those after-tax contributions (either via post-max 401k or back-door Roth) are not deductible against my AGI. This is also why I am supplementing 401k Max with Traditional IRA this year instead of Regular Roth, even though I am income-eligible for both.
  14. Tax strategy question as we approach the mid-year mark: Objective is to limit/reduce Federal AGI to largest degree possible by leveraging investment/retirement contributions. I am normal W2 (with employer-sponsored 401k), and wife earns $ part-time on 1099 (no job-specific retirement plan). My only other income/cap gains this year will be from high-yield savings, CDs, and T-Bills. Current plan is as follows: --I will max 401k contributions at annual limit of $23,000 --I will max HSA contribution to family limit of $8,300; by virtue of my high-deductible health plan --I will contribute additional $7,000 (max) to Traditional IRA (not Roth); mainly for sake of reducing taxable income. P.S. Feel free to roast me for being within the $123K earnings limit for Trad IRA deductions, as I know this forum is primarily for 7-figure elite. --Wife will contribute $7,000 (max) to her own Traditional IRA; for same reasons as above --I will also make series of 529 contributions, but understand these will be non-deductible for federal income calculation With exception of charitable donations, am I correct that the $45,300 outlined above is the only tax-deductible options available for this situation?
  15. Couple of things you may want to consider as part of your assessment: 1.) Comps matter a lot more than appraisals do; especially in a tepid market with quickly rising inventory. This is further reinforced by the fact that your place is (presumably) most appealing as a 2nd home/vacation spot and/or investment property....and I think that segment is particularly slow right now all across the island. 2.) Are you beach adjacent, or more geared toward East-End/Strand area? Your prospective buyers may have a very different profile depending on where you're located, and likely needs to be marketed accordingly. For example, an aggressive rate buydown may be super appealing for a UTMB student/employee looking to own/occupy; whereas straight price cuts and/or pre-paid HOA dues (if applicable) may stand out more to a HOU-area family looking to buy a beach spot with cash. 3.) If you are getting showings but no offers, I'd be a lot more concerned with the effort/contribution you're getting from your agent. But if it's just bone dry with zero interest, you're probably just not price-competitive to generate base level interest among a not-very-big buyer base, As you know, Redfin/Zillow does a lot of the work for you if you've got a really good price, unique location, and appealing listing pictures/interior staging....if your place is worth buying, it's gonna catch eyeballs quickly on the apps before your agent really gets involved to seal to the deal. ***My .02 is based on 20+ years of visiting family in Galveston, one of whom owns 4 properties (3x rentals) there. I also consider the entire island to generally be an irredeemable shithole (although I do enjoy the food at Mosquito Cafe), so apologies if I come across as more pessimistic than others.
  16. Sorry for late reply, but couple of things I believe the macro data is overlooking: 1.) The degree/extent to which buy-downs + other seller-paid concessions are propping-up / distorting "sale prices"; especially for SFH's. 2.) Significant variance in transactions across different price-points. If you double-clicked on homes under $500k vs. those above $1M I would imagine it's far from an equivalent story; particularly w.r.t price cuts, days on market, etc. YoY comparisons are also inherently weird because 2023 was somewhat unique in terms of both super low listings and unusually low sales while people reacted to the new interest rate reality. 3.) Ultra-high end seems to be doing particularly bad. Extreme example, but Chris Beard's Tarrytown den of iniquities has been on the market for over a year now and still ain't moving. He's now baked in at least a $1.1M loss (not including sales commissions) from when he bought at the top of the top in 2021...so likely somewhere near a 25-30% bath when all is said and done. It appears Sark also ate close to a $2M loss on his Rollingwood place he finally just offloaded. By the same token, plenty of 'normal' people who bought in the bidding-war insanity of 2021 would also be selling at significant losses right now if they were faced with an equivalent "need" to sell. Many are able to justify/sustain their situations thanks to their super-low rates, but that doesn't mean there isn't enormous price vulnerability across Austin if a real big-boy recession ever shows up (which may then impact appraisals for the 2023 buyers seeking to re-fi). The cachet + hyper demand for Austin just is not the same as it was during peak Covid...and that story is already reflected within significant rent dcreases even in the premium parts of Central/West. And no, I don't think this is a nationwide trend...the bandwagon just seems to have shifted from AUS/DEN/PHX/BOI etc over to other regions/markets (your neck of the woods in WNC is a prime beneficiary of that). 4.) Austin-proper and CenTex are different animals, particularly with regard to new-builds. I think there are many exurb-style developments that are going to find themselves slashing prices massively (or eating the losses via in-house lending) if there is not significant rate improvement this year. I don't doubt that demographic growth will continue in Texas indefinitely, I'm just not sure how many of the 'Texans of tomorrow' will be interested + capable of purchasing $400k tract home bullshit in the outskirts of New Braunfels. All that stuff in aggregate is why I started to wonder about if the appraisals are gonna be sufficient to deliver re-fi rate relief for a lot of people who bought maybe a year or so ago. They were too late to get the attractive rates, but also too early to get much significant price improvement. However, Wulaw's insight (which was very helpful, btw) would indicate they're probably okay...at least on the supposition that lenders maintain their willingness to re-fi conventionals at 90-95%+ LTV in event of a recession.
  17. @Wulaw (et al), any risk of these forward-seeking Refi's potentially getting derailed by short appraisals? I don't know anything about HOU market, but I would imagine there's quite a few people in CenTex that bought in past 18-24 months who are underwater-ish right now (and seemingly getting worse, depending on their 'hood + price point). That said, true market value not always reflected in appraisals, espec when it it seems (anecdotally) like the trend overall has been to err valuations in favor of buyer/borrower; at least since prices starting exploding in Summer of '21. On related note, as someone in the "higher for longer" camp, I tend to think the only thing that would really force the issue w.r.t significant rate cuts would be an undeniable recession with corresponding surge in unemployment. Under that scenario, I could see prices dropping quicker + further as 2nd homes, rental investors, + Airbnb'ers (of which there are many in TX) find themselves in liquidation mode. I also would imagine a lot of hopeful refinancers would be DQ'd if they no longer have the jobs/income stability to pass underwriting...which may compel those same people to sell the houses that they can no longer afford.
  18. Blake, I've been an observer of the Longhorn internets since approx 2001; and was very a active reader of Shaggy from Day 1. You are one of my favorite contributors during that entire time frame. Even back when you were a "different person", I still always looked forward to seeing your hoops takes and thought it was really bizarre how many people (such as the "Hi" crowd) felt compelled to have real-life personal beef with you. Fast forward to now and very little seems to have changed; so my advice is this: Please permanently leave this website and find a different/healthier outlet for expressing your interest in sports and engaging with other fans. Many of the largest influencers here do not have your best interests at heart (and that's putting it gently), and they never will. I fully believe that anyone who devotes any substantial amount of attention/energy to an internet message board (and by the same token, mainstream social media) is fundamentally a loser. Time and resources are finite, and youth/vigor/opportunity costs are tremendously precious. The fact that there are many people here with tens of thousands of posts (translate those into conscious hours!) dropped into little more than an abyss of uselessness (95% of the time) or a vortex of hatred, division, and personal attacks (at worst) speaks immense volumes about their character as adults, parents, spouses, etc etc. There is a reason so many posters fit similar archetypes of ultra-high incomes and professional classes...they are the same people (especially the lawyers) who everyone else on the globe typically despises for the way they live their lives and treat others. It is only natural that they translate their self-loathing into attempts to cope/compensate through sanctimony, condescension, frequently outright abuse towards others while safely protected behind their screens. I aim to browse the board approx ~30 mins a week now to aggregate Astros news and pertinent insights relating to markets/finances. Fortunately that's because I (finally) have other important, meaningful, real-world human priority shit to do which was never that case when I spent hours and hours a day here (and not coincidentally, was objectively a loser during those same life stages). I don't know your whole story, but I perceive an enormous amount of victimhood from you during this most recent episode without appropriate regard for the greater context: This place will never be uplifting for you, it will never be a source of joy/pride/confidence/health whatever. It is a fundamentally ugly place populated overwhelmingly by fundamentally ugly people. There are certainly useful things you can "learn" here (like the 'Help' board) just as you would browsing google/reddit for specific topics of interest; but actually engaging anyone here and expecting anything different than the exact-same toxic pattern over the past 10+ years for you is horribly misguided. In the parlance of Tommy Boy, you are the woman in white gloves horribly upset by the mess made by ketchup popsicles that you insist on ordering over and over again. Put this hellscape away. Take control of your own life and your own recovery. Bob, imaamac, motown, etc etc should not and cannot be the gatekeepers to your health, happiness, and well-being. May God bless you, and I hope to see you reach your full potential somewhere that is worthwhile.
  19. Dusty Curse/Maldy Mush < Luhnow Magic Congrats to Blanco; awesome game all around
  20. That 9th inning felt like a surreal teleport into the wicked moments of Weiss, Leyritz, Betts/Benintendi, or one of those 2020 Rays LCS games where it seemed scientifically impossible for things to fall in Astros favor. Soto's RBI was ballsy (that whole AB was a masterclass), but their 3B's play down the line on Altuve was equally impressive. One of the best 'game-saving' defensive moments I can recall in a regular season Astros game, right up there with Pena's division-winning plays in AZ and the old Springer grand-slam robbery in Arlington. Overall despite the shitpile, Hunter's performance on Saturday was the most encouraging thing all weekend IMO. That was a legit stopper-like effort and he seemed confident throwing/locating everything. He is now the key to the rotation with Framber regressing, JV TBD, and Urquidy/Garcia/LMJ more uncertain. The first base situation is really concerning. Extremely.
  21. I thought it was odd that Hader pitched the 9th down 2-runs; espec since there's no off-day until Thursday. Unless the objective was just to make Abreu and Pressly feel worse about themselves. Also hate Alvarez in the 2-hole (I'd rather him hit cleanup), analytics be damned.
  22. Can you (or anyone else familiar) elaborate on this some more? I grew up nearby and was about 12 years old when it closed down, which was one of my first conscious WTF moments in life. I remember my Dad telling me about the evil veggie lady, but my childhood brain could not make sense of why someone would purposefully wreck something that everyone else enjoyed so much. We used to have breakfast there most weekends, I remember there was an cool old lady who was one of the servers (I think Sally maybe was her name?). Also a very underrated CFS in addition to the burgers and other staple items.
  23. That's really tough man, and I'm not sure the math/feasibility is on your side even with a max 401k loan. I thought for a minute that a home sale + downgrade may be best in the long-run, but gonna be damn difficult (if not impossible) to replicate a viable long-term living situation at fixed cost of ~$1500/mo without a brutal quality of life disruption, even in Oklahoma. I hate to say it, but all signs point to default unless your wife is willing to ante up immensely on the income side of the equation. That said, a wife-centered ultimatum (and forced employment arrangement) could lead to even more acute issues that may completely destroy you financially if an acrimonious divorce materializes as a result. Although it is generally bullshit (and very selfish) that she's not willing to work more to dig out of this disaster, she's also the wife you chose (and ultimately have kept)...so please tread lightly (and understand the risks) if you suddenly decide to lay down the law with her. The "good" news is in a default scenario you will not be lying to any of your creditors, the fact of the matter is a family crisis put you far beyond the point of traditional repayment, and they will now face some of the consequences for lending to you beyond your means (assuming you did not misrepresent your household income). You're not trying to have cake and eat it too...you already drive old/cheaper cars and it's not as if you are trying to keep a vacation home or boating hobby in motion while this inferno burns. It's been mentioned a couple of times now, but unsecured debt is really not that catastrophic (at least based on how I understand the rules/laws). It will certainly suck in several ways, but even if you were in a forced bankruptcy situation (which you're absolutely not) your main assets (house + 401k) are gonna be protected anyway. Best wishes out there and don't allow this to wreck your personal esteem. Everyone makes mistakes, and at the root, all you seemingly were trying to do was be a loving parent; even if it went beyond your own rational good sense.
  24. Also: I alluded to HELOCs but to do not endorse/recommend whatsoever. The 401k loan is the ONLY form of "new debt" that I would remotely support, and that's probably only if you decide to go down the road of using that $$$ in concert with some strategic defaults + chargeoffs (since you can always pull that 401k lever regardless of your credit score situation.)
  25. First off, you seem like a good person and I'm sorry for everything that happened. There is some useful directional advice above, but I think you may be missing an element of number-crunching before determining your final COAs. Now that things are back to "normal" (based on the at short-term closure of your son's situations), what is your actual current monthly cash-flow surplus after accounting for all overhead bills, gas/insurance, food, discretionary purchases, and of course, existing debt service costs? You mentioned familiarity with Dave Ramsey, which would indicate you're pretty well-versed in the mechanics of actual/no-shit/budgeting and hopefully keep pretty close track of inflows/outflows on a monthly basis. If not, the FIRST THING I would do is start fresh on February 1 and track, log, audit every single penny that you and your wife spend (no matter how small) and organize those expenses into spreadsheet format in relation to your take-home-pay (based on current taxes + 401k contributions). Assuming you both have pretty steady income, you can then amortize (based on February's results) exactly how much "progress" is feasibly possible on an annual basis based on status quo expenditures. Based on your apparent frugality, there may not be much low-hanging fruit for cutting back spending, but if you're already running something like a $3K surplus per month then it's really not that much of a crisis and you can confidently roll into restructuring/reservicing based on variety of calculations cost/benefit comparisons. Conversely, if you're only able to "save" like a grand per month (or less) then I think you need to take a more holistic look at your financial situation (and yes, housing situation) if your wife is truly incapable/unwilling to contribute additional income. I don't know how old your other kids are, but I kind of struggle with your wife's expectation of having a fully paid-off "family size" house if the long-term use case is only for her to live there on her own-ish once you are dead. But we can drill down on that further once we obtain some more data regarding your go-forward cash flow situation. If you are truly cash-deficient, then I would also consider/explore some strategic defaults on several of those credit cards (depending on how the balances are spread out currently) before knocking out huge balances with a 401k loan. I'm not an expert in this area, but I would presume you could do a 2-3 month default and then negotiate a chargeoff payment (or way lower interest rate?) to clear the balance and move-on. This will obviously impact your short-term credit rating, but may be well worth the cumulative benefit especially if you don't foresee a need for new financing any time soon (note: obviously you would do this after your HELOC/REFI or whatever is decided for/against). Nuclear option would also be to roll the dice on a balls-deep, across the board default, and then just change your cell phone numbers and let the chips fall where they may with the collections + civil judgments. While I consider this to be a generally unethical action, but a case could be made that it's not as scummy since you used the money for terrible legal nightmare (as opposed to opulent bullshit), but that's between you and God. Also fair to mention that nobody forced these card companies to issue unsecured debt in the first place, and perhaps our whole country would be in way better shape with respect to inflation + financial well-being if they did not extend such enormous credit lines at usurious rates that don't really lead anywhere else than moral hazard in most cases.
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