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Everything posted by Muny_Tex
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And yes, Money Guy is an excellent starting point for someone in Zepol's situation....especially if he is interested in a values-based, debt-avoidance approach to finances and doesn't want to have his intelligence continuously insulted by Ramsey (although the Baby Steps are a good foundational concept). Look up the Money Guy "Financial Order of Operations" and use it as a general barometer for assessing your current status. If any of those topics are unfamiliar to you, there's many quick/easy MoneyGuy podcast and Youtubes that can help educate + determine your action plan.
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I've found Jim Dahle of the "White Coat Investor" to essentially be the most informative (and knowledgeable) financial person on the internet; and vast majority of that content/archives + podcast material is available 100% free of charge. That said, one of his former sponsors (a REIT) was recently exposed as an insolvent quasi-scam that is in final stages of wiping out all equity investors (including Dahle himself), so even the good guys aren't immune to the bullshit.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Pato, Although the lending information above is sound, I think it's a big mistake to take on additional leverage (in the form of HELOCs or whatever) just to become an out of state landlord. As someone who is cash poor with recent employment disruptions and significant family/childcare obligations, you already possess a lot of risk factors that could be drastically worsened by an income disruption and/or rental situation gone awry. Furthermore, you have to be extremely rational (if not outright pessimistic) when penciling out your cost/benefit analysis on the sell vs. rent calculus. The recent emergence of 5% risk-free savings rates has completely transformed the upside potential (and downside risk) of landlording; especially in places like CenTex that already got their moonshot appreciation from COVID and are now tapering off (and some cases trending back down quickly). I don't know the SFH rental market in Georgetown, but my glance at Zillow shows tons of newish-built stuff all around $2k-2.2k per month. Let's say you have a nicer place that is in the $2,500 range, these are the key questions that must have very compelling, ironclad answers for you to override your risks: 1.) How much are your TX property taxes going to increase in Year 1 (and continue to climb) once you lose your homestead exemption? (Hint: It's likely gonna be massive) 2.) Good property manager is gonna take 50-60% of 1st month's rent, plus 8-10% each month going forward; how does that impact your margins? 3.) Let's say it takes anywhere from 4-8 weeks to find/book payment from your first tenant, how does that extra/needless mortgage payment(s) affect your upside? 4.) Shit happens, and people also tend to break shit when it's not their responsibility. Let's say typical maintenance/upkeep runs another $500 per year, but potentially multiple thousands if you have a big-ticket issue....how quickly/comfortably can you write that check without dipping into interest-bearing funding sources? And how will that impact your cash-flow margins? 5.) Nightmare scenario of non-paying tenant: Are you in position to float all mortgage/expenses indefinitely while eviction gets sorted out? Do you think the property manager making a $200/month off you will really care that much about timely/swift justice in addition to all the other shit they're dealing with at a given time? Now based on that framework, you need to calculate the other side of the equation which has immense benefits on a variety of fronts: 1.) Your $100k equity position is already tax free based on your 2+ years of occupancy as a primary residence. This benefit cannot be overstated. 2.) Said $100k instantly becomes a $400/mo of risk-free cash the moment you park it in a high-yield savings account, or can do even better with CDs or get other tax advantages via T-Bills. 3.) Said $100k can be utilized as down payment onto new home in WA to offset impact of higher interest rates, lessening the urgency for refinancing. 4.) Said $100k can be used to clear other debt (cars, credit cards, student loans etc), strengthen kids' 529 plans, and maintain a 6-month emergency cash reserve so you don't have to panic if you have another employment problem. 5.) Said $100k enables you to focus your time/effort/headspace on making the most of your new life in WA rather than potentially dreading every time your phone rings because it's got something to do with the damn house in Georgetown that you likely don't care to ever see again. BOTTOM LINE: Investment properties are great/useful/strategic if you are an investor (and are bankrolled accordingly). They can be catastrophically bad for finances, marriages, quality of life if you're a regular dude riding it all on leverage in the midst of the most uncertain housing/lending climate any of us have seen in at least two decades. In the super long-run renting out (and chasing long-term appreciation) may be advantageous, but I just don't think you have the money to make that gamble. As such, keep renting in WA until you close on the sale in TX and know exactly what your proceeds are. Then buy a house that you can afford even if interest rates never go down again (note: make sure you hire Wulaw as your lender). If you can't find anything that fits the criteria, keep renting/saving until you do. As an aside, I owned 3 properties (managed them all myself) when I was living in TX. Took my own advice when we moved away and am more glad I did every single day. Debt-free peace of mind is invaluable. Best wishes to you and your family. -
Tickets are no longer available. Feel free to delete thread.
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2x Tickets for UT vs. Alabama (Sat 9/13) Section 129, Row 21 $300 per ticket ($600 total) Pls PM if interested [emoji869]
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Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)
Muny_Tex replied to surlybevo's topic in Business and Markets
Will you get the same gambling thrill if you awaken one day to an email saying all your funds are now frozen due to the bankruptcy proceedings of your coin servicer, along with instructions for pursuing a partial recovery claim? -
You’re actually correct (statistically) with respect to black people. Black homeownership reached its highest point in history (49%) in the very early 2000s; it presently stands at just over 40% today. https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/most-black-americans-arent-homeowners-how-can-we-change-that-11615431459 Black populations have also plunged (and community staples gentrified away) in nearly every major “progressive” US city within that same 20 year time frame. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-03-14/us-black-population-the-biggest-growth-is-in-smaller-cities?context=amp ( (key excerpt: Columbus is the only city included in the newest areas to which Black people are moving that is not in the South) We also know they have enormously higher rates of student loans and unsecured debt relative to 20 years ago…and their unemployment rate has not materially improved during that time frame.
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Gold bug / silver bug / numismatic / metals thread
Muny_Tex replied to 52-80's topic in Business and Markets
I was gonna say it reads like a bot fueled by a algorithm combo of Peter Schiff + Robert Kiyosaki twitter posts…and not at all in a good way. And I think SushiHorn is the alarmist you are remembering. His posts got me turned onto the market-ticker website (smart guy, but total autistic nutcase) when I was really young/dumb and had me partially brainwashed for a while. That said, gold continues to demonstrate its (primary) strength as a store of value in midst of this recent debacle. I think it’s up about 2% YTD, which is a helluva performance relative to most equities, risk assets, and the alleged “digital gold” of crypto. I own a decent amount of $GLD and I got very defensive in my retirement accounts in January, mainly because I hate losing money way more than I enjoy making it. So I’m basically flat across the board for 2022. Yay for me. As far as bullion being some magic elixir to a global economic meltdown, that’s just beyond stupid. Mob rule, mass starvation, etc is not gonna give a fuck about your “legal right” to coins/bars you may have purchased fair and square before the currency collapse. Also, as mentioned previous on this thread, coins will become widely counterfeited beyond the means that most any normal person could ascertain. My doomsday prepping begins and ends with my home defense firearms, ~6 week supply of nonperishable foods, first aid kits, a few cases of bottled water, and two “pretty nice” furnished rental properties (and two spare cars) with which to barter. I’m not naive enough to think for two seconds that any of us living on the grid have a legitimate chance of surviving a full scale catastrophe that extends/exceeds beyond those baseline shocks…or honestly if I’d even want to. -
Learn me on a car lease for my kid????
Muny_Tex replied to horn4life's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
You need to also amortize the $8k down over the 36 month lease payment (i.e. $222/mo), in addition to your standard monthlies. If you decide to give back the vehicle at end of the term you will not get any of that money refunded to you. Leasing used to be awesome when you could do so with minimal up front costs, and just swap out for new cars every 3 years. Whereas the scenario you described above just sounds like some sort of accounting reach-around to make you feel like you’re saving money. It’s still primarily a sellers market right now, no one is doing anyone any favors. Also, I’m not a lesbian, but I do know that Subarus tend to hold value better than just about any other vehicle at their equivalent price point..which therefore defeats a big portion of your perceived “lease benefit” because the depreciation is so much lower than most others. Another thing to consider is it’s generally a bigger insurance pain in the ass dealing with a totaled lease compared to one you own…espec with so much money tied up in upfront costs. If you want to spoil your daughter and have that much money to throw around, I’d recommend just buying it outright. If you’re rich enough to put $8k down on a brand new lease for a teenager you shouldn’t really care much about sales tax differentials. -
Craziest thing to me is there’s still almost 30% of downside left in the NASDAQ before we reach the Covid bottom. In other words, I think there’s much more cratering ahead
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Yeah fuck Urquidy for making one bad pitch and still turning in a quality start on the road. He’s the problem tonight, not the dickheads who mustered two hits and leave men on third with nobody out in key situation. Good grief.
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I noticed on Monday that Southwest Airlines has quietly removed *all* of their job postings; everything from corporate HQ, to maintenance, to airport ops…even pilots is now zero’d out. This is just weeks after they said frontline hiring was imperative to sustain their future schedules, but I guess the 30% YoY increase in fares wiped out customer demand faster than expected.
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If you want to be creative then just go to the front bar / lounge deal at Vargas (no reservations) for a couple early drinks and apps; Astros game should be on too. Then go (e.g. walk) wherever for your dinner. It’s a cool vibe in there and service has been good in my experience.
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If you’re spotted an 8 game lead in mid-June within a terribly inferior division, when is there ever going to be a better time/opportunity to see what Yordan is capable of doing at 1B? The contract ink is dry…it’s time to capitalize while there’s still time ample time to prepare for a playoff run. Yuli is still a helluva asset for late inning defense and pinch hitting in RBI situations where a fly ball is needed…but something has to give before he (and Bregman) torpedo yet another postseason.
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Seems like the competitive fire has dwindled (a lot) since the Angels imploded.
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Julio Rodriguez (+130) has overtaken Peña (+180) as the ROY betting favorite. McLanahan (+350) also now leads JV (+400) in the Cy Young market as well. Yordan remains 18/1 for AL MVP (Judge is even money)
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Thanks for the quick replies…that truly is astonishingly bad. And yeah, I get it now how people who got offers accepted literally this past wknd may suddenly be screwed on their prequal budget or DTI if they didn’t lock at freaking 8:31am today. What a nightmare, sorry to all affected…and I guess worst part is there’s no relief in sight (at least until time comes to buy votes). -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I wish we had a “pinned tweet” type feature that could include Wulaw & Phil’s layman terms breakdown of how many bps = X amt of rate increases (or improvements) on a 15 or 30 yr conventional with the standard down payments for a primary home (I guess that’s 10%?). I know it’s been explained/posted several times, I wish it was more easily findable and I didn’t have to keep asking. -
$PENN now down about 78% since Davey Day Trader reached the mountain top. That piece of shit ETF ($BUZZ) he was hawking is also down 50% since its inception.
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So Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Lines have both now plummeted below their 2020 “Covid/World Is Ending/CruisingIsDoneForever” rock bottom levels…and Royal is getting damn close. Hypothetically, if someone believes these carriers are not going bankrupt (at least not all of them)…what is the harm in buying all 3 if you can afford to wait out a ~12 month correction/stabilization…and then just sell them immediately any time along the way as soon as they pop up 25% or so? Didn’t we already kinda learn this lesson with Hertz/Cinemark/etc ?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
So apparently the Fed’s solution to runaway rent increases is to slam the door on entry-level home ownership altogether (therefore creating even more supply/demand friction for affordable leases)…seems rational. I’m all in favor of locking out speculators from hoarding second homes/investment units via cheap lending (that was long overdue IMO); but the rest of this shit is not remotely productive. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
So with the refi market effectively dead as of mid-March, is second home financing now toast as well? I assume those rates are heading into the 7’s soon…presumably with points still required as well? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
So how much longer until the new “bidding wars” are for the purchase rights to assumable VA loans? I’m only half joking… -
Tremendous postseason from an outstanding group of girls; hadn’t followed softball closely (ever), but was truly captivated by this team over the past couple of weeks. Very entertaining games throughout, and extremely impressed with quality of play on all sides…the defensive clinic from OU tonight was hard to resent. Best wishes to all the seniors, and hope to see another deep run next year. Hook ‘em
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Dirt burglars startin to look a little nervous… Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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