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Everything posted by Muny_Tex
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99.984% sure she’s already killed herself A broad genius enough to park in front of victim’s next door neighbor as means of concealing her crime has seemingly zero chance of evading arrest/detection for this long.
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Might be appropriate to give Enoli another look in middle relief at some point relatively soon. 22 K’s in 16 IP thus far, with a 0.56 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP is pretty damn salty. I know his nerves/mental issues immediately became evident once the fans returned to ballparks, but I don’t think he should be permanently condemned. If I was GM of a shitty team I would be all about trying to “buy low” on him via trade and rolling the dice knowing upside potential is massive. EDIT: Dug deeper and he’s still at 5.5 BB/9 so far this season…dammit Enoli
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Interesting episode of George Gammon’s “Rebel Capitalist” podcast today, guest was real estate guru Jason Hartman. Dude obviously has a strong bias for owning properties over equities, but couple of POVs stood out to me (I don’t necessarily agree with all): 1.) Real estate doesn’t “crash” anything like stocks in terms of speed/velocity…Hartman claimed that the full drawdown/bottom out of the GFC took almost 6 years to occur; whereas we’ve now had 2 separate stock market events in past ~2 years where we’ve had >20% index losses in matter of weeks. 2.) Even if Blackrock’s of the world sour on real estate, they aren’t gonna dump all ~80K of their holdings in a single swoop to the degree that most stock liquidations (or margin calls) often function…it would typically be done targeted/gradual manner that wouldn’t create huge surplus housing inventories overnight. 3.) Lower/mid-level price homes are particularly strong assets in downturns/rate hikes, because even if entry level buyers with $300k budgets are priced out of market entirely, other groups that previously qualified for $400k often “shift down” to take their place…therefore protecting demand for those same properties. (NOTE: I agree with this viewpoint 1000%, which is why I’ve always been a cheapest/turnkey place in best location kind of investor). 4.) Rent increases tend to lag surging purchase prices by ~2 years…and we’ve only recently started to see the spikes in rental markets, so there’s still theoretically a lot more room to rise barring a full scale recession bloodbath. 5.) Effective way to gauge “affordability” of a home right now as an owner/occupant is through same lens that prospective investor will use: basic RV ratio. If the RV delivers the standard .7 or better, and you’re in a linear/non-cyclical market (ie CenTex)…you’re probably good to go even if the price has gone way up in past couple of years…your chances of getting huge rent relief are not likely. -
MVP/World Champion ‘Tuve was solidly #3, which continued all the way through 2018. If my memory serves, the impetus to move him to the 2-hole was predicated on Bregman’s monster 2019, which has obviously proven to be a massive aberration (at best).
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My preference: Peña Brantley Altuve Alvarez Tucker Gurriel Bregman Machete Chas/CF
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I know it’s gonna balance out near the end of June with CWS, NYM, NYY, etc…but I can’t remember a ~6 week stretch of opponents more favorable than it’s been since start of May. Particularly good timing to ride this wave right as the Angels were playing their best ball in many years, maybe their spirit is already breaking after that recent string of L’s.
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He hasn’t been good for a long time and has consistently exuded Baker Mayfield-type vibes ever since he did that bush league bat carry in the ‘19 WS.
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Absolutely true, and same principle applies to indirect measures such as student loan “forgiveness”….but adherence to sound fiscal policy is not necessarily gonna stop panicked efforts to remain in power when faced with horribad polling…can’t really elaborate further without taking the convo into the cloaky cesspool. Edit: Fed/govt continues to operate a year behind the power curve, which is making this worse. Time to cut rates/soften demand was long ago…priority now should be boosting productivity through targeted expansionary action and removal of red tape…instead we are about start hemorrhaging jobs to go along with needless collapse of asset prices both of which will do absolutely zero to address the critical shortage of essential goods.
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Assuming that’s not rhetorical…I would posit that a bunch of new stimulus and loan programs will be launched with midterms in mind
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Texas v. Alabama (Sept. 10) on Fox. Probably at 11 am
Muny_Tex replied to Jive Turkey's topic in Football
So again, am confused as to why Joel Klatt is the only person/entity actually confirming a kickoff time if it’s such an unavoidable guarantee. I will continue to believe there’s more to the story until UT/Bama publish something definitive. -
I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s still a *long* way down when you consider the disastrous macro environment + supply chain that is nowhere close to repair. Nasdaq is still roughly 35% above the Covid trough, and damn near double where it began the 2017 bull run. What exactly is the case for optimism in stocks right now? Abandonment of rate hikes + QE5 (and corresponding crash of USD)?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
By how much has the median housing sales price increased since the “magic 3%” became a thing? -
Texas v. Alabama (Sept. 10) on Fox. Probably at 11 am
Muny_Tex replied to Jive Turkey's topic in Football
I’m still (irrationally) clinging to fact that neither school has made an announcement or listed a kickoff time on their official athletics sites…unless I missed something? CDC knows how much incremental $$$ is at stake for a primetime kick (even his pregame concert + carnival gong show doesn’t work with 11am), so maybe a miracle can occur. -
Nasdaq still has over 30% of room to free-fall before reaching the Covid bottom; and damn near 50% before reaching the Jan 2017 ranges
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Agree 1000%, but I do think there’s a way forward if we are willing to set egos/bias aside and capitalize on the resources we have available. There are many wonderful homes in places the Birmingham and Huntsville suburbs for under $300k, other examples like Little Rock also apply…but people (especially certain urbanites) don’t want to live somewhere “redneck banjo” when there’s actually a lot to love in places like that If you’re family oriented. The work-from-home revolution is just about the only potential net positive for Covid as a whole…people have to just be willing to make the leap and invest/immerse/support “3rd tier” cities and the long term results will be tremendous. People need community, they need a stake in their own livelihood, and they need to get the hell out of hyper-crowded urban areas where abject poverty and obscene luxury are becoming the only lifestyles. People have developed very skewed views of “livability” because they generally only know what they know. Austin is an oasis if you come from a west coast/northeast hellscape, but it’s a terrible beating if you grew up in this town and value things like room to breathe, permanence, and not fucking littering everywhere. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I agree with the sentiment but disagree with the outcome. I think we underestimate how quickly (especially gen y/zoomers) become accustomed to misery and/or hopelessness…if it’s just implied from birth that everyone in your family/social circle rents their dwelling, then it doesn’t really seem that bad that you don’t own one. Under this framework, “nice” homes gradually move into the opulence category alongside yachts, fine jewelry, exotic cars etc….there’s no vicious anger in not possessing something that you never reasonably expected to obtain. You don’t generally hear working class people in super stratified places like Mexico City lamenting their lack of home ownership opportunities…that concept is so far out of the question it doesn’t even register as a gripe; whereas rent/food/fuel increase is a near frequent cause of strain and periodic uprisings. A lot of the viciousness/resentment in the US js gonna be isolated to the older millennials who generally considered home ownership a rite of passage into adulthood, along with family aspirations etc. up until very recently…when 25+ years worth of $$ appreciation got pulled forward into ~30 months with a bonus nut punch of having to fight off institutional investors. Tons of upper/middle class ppl in mid-late 30s are suddenly experiencing *way worse* lifestyles and outlooks than they grew up with…and with a bitch-slapping velocity that makes them want to rage since they generally “played by the rules” all these years only for the payoff to be ripped away at the very last moment. Contrast that with the age 10-15 cohort who for pretty much all their formative years will know nothing besides hysteria, scarcity, and near constant turmoil. Their “normal” is just fundamentally different than those who grew up with seminal moments of American prosperity and national pride. The bottom line is, the short-term psychological transition is going to be very painful for many, but once the middle class is officially (and permanently) destroyed it won’t “feel” all that badly for those who grow up in the new paradigm. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
Muny_Tex replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
^^^How does the intentional/deliberate collapse of equities and assets plus lost access to capital (and corresponding mass unemployment) do dick to resolve “excess demand” for inelastic necessities (food, energy, shelter)…in midst of crisis level supply disruptions? Does starvation/malnourishment now qualify as demand tapering? Will they pat themselves on the back for “bringing things into balance” if enough infants die from lack of formula? -
6-man rotation is irrelevant to JV’s long-term calculus, no need to worry about his perception. If he finishes the season injury-free and top 3 in CY voting (which appears to be a certainty if his health stays intact) then he’s opting out regardless. What I love most about the decision is giving Javier the chance to shine and solidifying his “piggy-back” combo with Urquidy as the playoff ace-in-the-hole…takes so much pressure off the LMJ rehab situation as well.
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Helluva finish. Whoever made the Monarchos reference was spot-on, almost an identical rocket shot. That said, my only concern with Epicenter was temptation to run the race he wanted as opposed to the one he needed. He’s very gifted with stalking/pouncing but that shit backfires when you’re solely locked in on 2-3 horses upfront without regard for the overall tempo that can lead to those late miracle charges. Epi had a wide open lane to control the race from the rail at the very outset, but Rosario let him glide on belief he could recover…which is the exact same way he got bitten at Lecomte. Epicenter is a badass and I hate to see him get burned after charging so courageously to win the thing…but what can you do. Also as mentioned above, if Rich Strike pops hot then yes the sport should be absolutely fucking ashamed and I don’t know if it’s gonna be salvageable this time.
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*Saw he just moved to 5/1 (I guess everyone is hot for Messier now); that feels like stealing Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Epicenter is going to dominate today….7/2 is a gift Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
Muny_Tex replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Checking in at 2.875% on my 30-year VA courtesy of Wulaw’s wizardry. I knew it was a killer deal/value at the time (admin/closing costs were also extremely light); but realizing now it will likely end up in the “once in a lifetime” category. *Just closed on a second home at 5.375% (no points, but sadly out of Wulaw’s area of ops) and was told those terms were equally “miraculous” so life (e.g. Powell) comes at you fast. -
I agree with majority of your sentiment, but I think you are very misguided about Planned Parenthood with respect to prenatal care…in the sense that those services are completely non-existent (at least at the Central Texas branches)…unless you’re advocating wholesale reform for that organization as a starting point, which I believe is sorely needed. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It’s probably exaggerated in my mind due to the enormity of the Benintendi catch and defensive clinic from Kiermaier in the ‘20 ALCS, but Bregman seems to have atrociously bad luck in key situations relative to the other marquee guys.
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Yep I think you nailed it. “Sure, we have a border crisis, runaway inflation, and are attempting to dictate your cultural heritage via insistence on term the latinx…but if you don’t vote Dem, then you ain’t brown” Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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