Muny_Tex

Our first signs of rationing/hoarding/desperation driven by shortages have now appeared with regard to baby formula. Is beef/chicken next? Any other guesses? https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/9525498002 “Among the states hit worst with baby formula supply shortages, according to Datasembly: Minnesota had the highest out-of-stock percentage for the week of March 13th at 54%, followed by Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Texas, all at 40% or higher. Cities with the highest out-of-stock rates: San Antonio (56%), Minneapolis (55%), and Des Moines (50%), for the week of March 13. Houston, New Orleans, and Oahu were above 45%.”

Dunno what happened rest of my original post, so I guess I will try again; sorry for the spam: ======== Bumping for another POV since this one hits close to home… If hassle-free viewing is important to you (and/or you are Surly 8%), then best approach is to purchase a FuboTV subscription; which enables you to stream the standard ATT SportsNet broadcast (on any device like Roku or SmartTV) without blackout restriction as if you were living in the Houston market. It is bullshit expensive (like $65/mo), but also gives you a ton of other channels that (presumably) will allow you to cancel all other streaming services (outside of maybe Netflix). Fubo also generally performs very well on their web-based service and mobile app if you like to watch games on your phone and/or laptop. Pro-Tip: If you are cost-averse to Fubo but are also confident in the Astros…bet $500 on them to win the division (@ -175) + another $150 to win ALCS (+450) and an extra $100 for World Series (+1000)….If they win the division then your next two bets become a “free roll”; if they win the pennant you’ll win equivalent of two full seasons of Fubo coverage, and if they win the title you get an extra grand to offset what you paid to attend one of the WS games. I’ve adopted the same general strategy since 2019 and had good success (having them at +1100 for pennant last year was awesome)…plus owning a division title futures bet also makes the regular season a lot more “fun” since there’s something at stake every night. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bumping for another POV since this one hits close to home… If hassle-free viewing is important to you (and/or you are Surly It is bullshit expensive (like $65/mo), but also gives you a ton of other channels that (presumably) allows you to cancel all other streaming services outside of Netflix. Fubo also generally performs very well on the web-based service and mobile app if you like to watch games on your phone and/or on laptop. Pro-Tip: If you are cost-averse to Fubo but are also confident in the Astros…bet $500 on them to win the division (using free bet @ -175) + another $150 to win ALCS (+450) and an extra $100 for World Series (+1000)….If they win the division then your next two bets become a “free roll”; if they win the pennant you’ll win equivalent of two full seasons of Fubo coverage, and if they win the title you get an extra grand to offset what you paid to attend one of the WS games. I’ve adopted the same general strategy since 2019 and had good success (having them at +1100 for pennant last year was awesome)…plus owning a division title futures bet also makes the regular season a lot more “fun” since there’s something at stake every night. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’m not sure if this is still relevant for anyone; but I used a regular Samsung “Smart TV” home screen to download AppleTV+ app then logged in using my normal AppleID/iPhone credentials. We’ve been streaming without any issues since the first inning…so may be worth a try for those of yall with regular cable and/or Roku only if your TV model allows you to stream directly from the device. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is this a serious post? If so, Robert Mugabe applauds your highly innovative strategy Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CSB here since I know appraisals have been a massive headache in CenTex recently: —Submitted appraisal request on Tue 3/29 (for condo property in New Orleans) —Request picked up same-day and scheduled for Thu 3/31 at $500 standard rate (no rush costs or extra fees required) —Report delivered today (Mon 4/4) with final $$$ result at identical value to contract purchase price (directly aligned with neighboring comps) I don’t have a ton of experience in real estate, but that was pretty much the easiest + most efficient transaction I can remember seeing. For contrast, it just took my sister a full 30 days to close on an all-cash deal in Caldwell County (no appraisal ordered) because apparently even Surveys are backlogged around these parts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

^^^Thanks for the clarification gents. Guess I should feel blessed to have secured 5.375% @ 10% down with no points…supposed to close 4/14 but still awaiting appraisal results so who knows. I’m “only” borrowing $200k so the recent rate movement isn’t catastrophic, but good grief what a difference ~3 months can make [emoji1785]

Rate/Policy question: So now that April 1st has come and gone, are the new FHFA rules/regs/fees for Second Homes now officially “in effect”? If so, how are lenders relaying these costs? Is it just showing up in form of higher rates/increased LTV requirements, or is there actually a stand-alone “fee” that is being collected now? If it’s just a rate deal, how much “worse” are 2nd home deals looking now when compared to a primary…given a baseline of $350k @ 20% down Also, is everyone who applied/locked with signed purchase contracts prior to 4/1 all “safe” from these new changes (and associated fees?)…or is it based on the final closing date? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I expect to post less than 5 times this season; but will offer the following: Hudson Card absolutely, positively sucks ass and will never be successful at any level besides possibly switching to receiver at a mid-tier FCS school. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

March brought reduced enthusiasm for gold, while the main indexes regained some momentum. Bitcoin’s recent surge has safely removed it from correction territory, while Cathie Wood continues her bear market adventure. YTD gain/loss as of 31 MAR 2022: $GLD: +7.3% $GOLD: +32.3% $DJIA: -5.2% $SPY: -5.5% $RUT: -8.9% $NDAQ: -12.0% $BTC: -6.4% $ARKK: -31.7% Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Excellent replies, many thanks gents. Did not occur to me that a purge of scummy lenders may create a net positive, so it’s nice to have some optimism now. For Wulaw’s point about new disincentives for sellers in high rate environment…this is spot-on. In 2021, the theme was “I’d love to sell and bank these mega profits , but I’ll go broke trying to find a comparable house…assuming I can even win the bidding war.” For 2022, it’s looking like Wulaw’s point of “why should I sell when I’m locked in at 2.75%, only to turn around and buy at ~5.5%?” Plus it also may be “I doubt I can even get the $XXX I was offered for my house last year anymore now that the market has cooled.” Both episodes lead to continued inventory squeezes, but I would posit that 2022 is actually “worse” because it creates a new angle for the ultra rich buyers + institutional investors who can still bypass the rate hikes by paying all-cash…only now they have way fewer competitors. So as long as stock market holds relatively steady (top priority for Fed), the 1% presumably will just continue to hoard real estate assets so they can gouge the general public on the rental side…fun times. As an aside, my tinfoil hat says we’re about to see some new “vote buying” strategies that center around rate relief, waived down payments, and/or student loan forgiveness for first-time buyers…but I won’t poison this thread any further. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So with mortgage rates now firmly settled at/above 3-year highs, it would appear to me that the “core” ReFi market (excluding rarer deals like Wulaw’s high-value ARMs) is essentially dead…as vast majority of current owners either bought within past two years (safely in the low-mid 3’s) or already locked in at rock bottom rates in the first 12-18 months of Covid. While this saturation level was inevitable one way or another; the major (unforeseen) consequence of the extremely rapid, no lube rise in rates would seem to be stomping out Cash-Out demand/viability for nearly everyone besides a handful of desperate folks who need the surplus cash at any cost…even when the math makes no sense. With that in mind, my questions/concerns are as follows: 1.) What is the cumulative effect of eliminating an entire segment of a lending industry (ReFi’s) seemingly overnight…without a corresponding drop in housing prices that stimulates new deals on the buyer side to offset that shift? How long until lending shops start laying ppl off en masse? What about the big box banks that rely on revenue from these same deals? What about the title companies? 2.) If govt monopoly money in form of direct stimulus is out of picture (for at least a while), how many (thousands? millions?) of Americans are going to be able to sustain their lifestyles (or service the credit card debt accrued from that long overdue family trip to Disney) if they can’t conjure up the $70-90k of “free cash” equity they were expecting from a low rate cash out? 3.) If materials/commodity costs remain high, how can builders justify dropping their prices to match the reduced budgets of entry-level buyers in presence of higher rates (and possibly tighter underwriting requirements)? Seems to me that scenario creates a lot of “stagflationary” winds where prices remain artificially high due to lack of inventory caused by poor margins. Certainly interested in other viewpoints, but my .02 is that creating recessionary activity by kicking the entire real estate industry in the balls doesn’t really do much (at all) to solve inflation…it just adds more layers to a triple decker shit sandwich. P.S. As for point #2: I don’t think that using your house as an ATM machine to live beyond your means is a good thing; but like it or not, borrow/spend reflects huge segment of the US economy…and it’s gonna get real ugly real quick when most ppl no longer have that lever to pull. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

*All-Time: Born to Run Darkness on the Edge of Town The River *Honorable Mention: Off the Wall Thriller Bad *Under-Appreciated: Living & Dying in 3/4 Time AIA Havana Daydreamin (pre-Margaritaville Buffett is so much better than most ppl realize) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Also, his numbers from the 2017 postseason are also lot shittier than I remembered…G5 walkoff bias I guess. .226 career playoff batting average, .739 OPS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bregman is a lot more likable / tolerable when he hits above .220 in an LCS or WS….so it’s been a while now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Assuming your (young adult) daughter doesn’t have school-aged kids yet…has she considered buying a good-enough 1BR condo in Central/North (e.g. N.Burnet, Domain, or Arboretum) for like $230ish and then simultaneously buying a new build SFH for $325ish somewhere affordable like Lockhart? That door-to-door drive between the two properties is ~45 min most times of day and the maintenance/upkeep of both combined should be less than an aging, over-priced house “as-is” with a waived inspection. Combo plan also allows her to do whatever she needs to do work-wise during the week + all “cool girl” social activities in central core while also having a separate “real house” space to relax/enjoy/build equity on weekends (plus a nice change of pace away from city shitshow)…and of course create variety of rental options as her life situation evolves. I realize this approach requires a moderate amount of critical thinking (generally a non-starter for millennial women raised by social media/celebrity influencers) but maybe she’s one of the rare breeds. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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One POV that I haven’t seen discussed much: If you’re an AL GM that expects to be competitive, isn’t keeping Correa “off” the Astros a significant part of the calculus in terms of his potential value-add for your team as a FA signing? As it stands, Astros are the mathematical favorites to win the pennant (+425)…if Correa comes back on a monster 1-year deal those odds probably drop to at least +250…and if CC re-signs with HOU long-term (albeit doubtful) then you’ve got a legit dynasty to contend with for the next ~4 seasons. In other words, isn’t there something to be said for keeping the Astros “beatable” just as much as making a huge marquee upgrade to your own roster? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is what it all boils down to…CDC will goose the margins every year to ensure that the customer/donor always loses with respect to ROI…it is unavoidable. Let’s say for example there’s a huge uproar about the no-resale policy and people mobilize a big deal protest about it….CDC will just come up with some “By popular demand, an exclusive fan-centric partnership agreement with UT/StubHub” that collects like a 35% commission for your online sale. You will never win. The extra home game this year is another great example…eating the dick on increased ticket cost + donation undermines the whole “let’s just buy solid season tix so we’re good for Bama and then sell the games we don’t want” angle. The market is gonna be trash for almost every other game. 3 home games in a row to start the season (book-ending the Bama game) is gonna dilute the market even further. It’s all bullshit from a purely financial standpoint…which is 1000% by design. Season tickets make a lot of sense if you truly love the gameday atmosphere and don’t want to miss a game regardless of opponent or on-field product…in other words, a purely emotional/irrational purchase. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CC didn’t hire Boras until mid-Jan; several weeks after the other marquee guys signed elsewhere. It appears those clowns at William Morris (with basically zero MLB experience) dicked up his negotiations and Boras is now trying to salvage the impending disaster. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Javier should absolutely not be traded, and certainly not for another reliever. He’s a team-controlled asset with playoff pedigree who can be deployed 17 different ways. I also don’t think LMJ is gonna be pitching anytime soon (and JV is a partial question mark too), so I expect to see Javier break camp as a starter anyway…certainly not an expendable guy. Even if those health outlooks improve, I’d imagine Click will want to stick with a 6 man rotation as long as possible to limit wear/tear/innings. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://www.clickondetroit.com/sports/2022/03/11/report-reveals-new-details-of-detroit-tigers-offer-to-carlos-correa-before-signing-javier-baez/?outputType=amp ^^^^More details about the 10 / 275 Correa turned down from Detroit. 3x opt-out clauses + a $10M bonus for every top 5 MVP finish [emoji15] I know the Lindor deal remains he and Boras’ “floor”, but as mentioned above, I’m not sure where the leverage is gonna come from if both NYY and LAD don’t fully participate. Put me in the camp of 1 yr / $40M (give or take) for one season in HOU, then Carlos can piss all over Lindor’s money when he wins a WS MVP and re-sets the market. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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^^^Saw the above chart referenced on ZeroHedge today. Sign of the times indeed.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Governor of Queretero says no deaths occurred; so I guess we can just chalk it up to an overreaction. I’m sure those stripped naked dudes with blood/brain gushing out of their severed heads were just trying to get likes on IG: https://amp.marca.com/en/football/liga-mx/2022/03/06/6224e7ea22601d0e2e8b45d3.html Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk