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Muny_Tex

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Everything posted by Muny_Tex

  1. The correct answer to the posted question is Brooks & Dunn; as per Scraps That said, Alan Jackson is probably next on the list and honestly a pretty strong case can be made for Tim McGraw as well. I would also add both Clay Walker & Tracy Lawrence to the “honorable mention” list as far as capturing the quintessential “90s country” sound Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  2. I think a qualify for this distinction, as I just registered a -5.2 lbs drop in my first week of ultra low carb, minimal sugar (203.6 to 198.4). Didn’t do any exercise because of the gross weather and feeling kinda sick/weak from the big shift in dieting. Did a lot of walking outside today but hoping to get workouts rolling again tomorrow. The nutritional status quo prior to starting this quest was abominable: (pizza, burgers, chicken strips, quesadillas, cookies, etc) Original plan for this diet was a 2-week kickstart, but gonna try to make it a month now (if I can stand it) and shoot for the full 20 lbs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  3. Lol that was me; assuming you’re thinking of the bald/bearded dude who patted you on the shoulder in the lower level concourse. Internet is a weird place, but it was good to see you man…glad you got some nice memories despite the bad result tonight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  4. Jumped on the train earlier this week after cresting 200 lbs for the first time in my life (I’m turning 37 this summer). I’m 6’0 so it’s not massive BMI, but am carrying it terribly in form of belly fat and bitch tits; and I’m sure my BP and blood sugars are equally egregious now too. Deadly mix of dietary catastrophe (more pizza & fast food during 2 yrs of Covid than previous 10 yrs combined) + work from home laziness + newborn kid has finally spelled disaster. Starting out with goal of 2 full weeks of heavily reduced carbs (Atkins-ish) and minimal sugar then ideally shifting some into sort of “maintenance mode” with cranked up workout regimen once I can (hopefully) ditch the first 10-12 lbs of waffle batter. I’ve never been a fatass before now, and this has damn near wrecked my self esteem. Kicking an added sugar / processed carb addiction is no easy task either…definitely have newfound empathy for people who have lifelong struggles with this stuff. Buena suerte hombres, hope to report back soon with some meaningful progress. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  5. With regard to rent prices, is there some sort of red flag indicator that states “market is at risk of bubble when equivalent mortgage cost is X% or $XXX higher per month than market rent price?” You can rent new construction in Manor (Shadow Glen) for $2,150/mo, but neighborhood sale comps are now $375K… You can rent a 1980-era 1/1 in North Burnet for $1200/mo, but recent sales in same complex are now starting at $240k (+$200/mo HOA)… Back of the envelope on both purchases (10% down @ 4.0 rate for 30-yrs), say it costs you about $500 more per month to “own” either property than it does to rent them. Does that align with historical norms for Austin? Isn’t that kind of a lousy deal when you are already having to make a sizable upfront cash commitment for that privilege? I guess if you’re 100% committed to occupying for 10+ years you’re ultimately better off…but seems like it used to be much more of a slam-dunk decision to buy? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  6. That’s some excellent detective work there Lou, but I guess all “drinks” aren’t created equal? I bot a can of sparkle water from the fridge so maybe that stuff is like $4? I didn’t receive an itemized receipt but maybe your kid can pull the surveillance tape in case I was overcharged? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  7. FWIW, my latest “I’m done” moment came at Thundercloud yesterday when a large tuna + drink (no chips) ran me $13…toss in a couple extra bucks for the kid behind the counter and that’s just a tremendous waste of money to spend with any regularity. They (Lake Austin location) also have cut hours to close at 5pm most days since they don’t have enough workers. In any event, it seems we’ve got another fresh set of anecdotes making the case for stagflation (scarcity + gouging + inability to staff due to wage push) along with a potential liquidity trap if Surly 1% decides to opt out of “new normal” consumption and burrow into their mansions armed with a war chest of $5 pizzas. My vibe is most people will generally be willing to eat the dick for crazy costs one time (e.g. Disney trip promised to kids for 2 years, trip to Napa with SO for 6x postponed vacation, etc) and then the recession will get rolling with full force once everyone is fully “tapped out” either by choice or maxed out credit cards with no more monopoly money in sight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  8. I thought all the geniuses who presided over the unemployment bonanza told us a de facto $15 minimum wage wouldn’t have any impact on menu prices or food costs going forward. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  9. YTD Scoreboard Update as of 17 FEB (@1230): $GLD: +5.4% $GOLD: +25.4% $DJIA: -5.6% $SPY: -7.8% $RUT: -9.9% $NDAQ: -14.5% $BTC: -13.8% $ARKK: -28.6% Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  10. Also, unsolicited advice: Don’t top out your DTI regardless of where you think the market is heading. There’s a big difference between what you can borrow vs. what you can meaningfully afford...don’t sell your soul for the sake of this endeavor. A lot will depend on your personality (along with your significant other if you have one), but being house poor can be a special type of miserable…espec if you end up buying at the “top” and don’t see any material appreciation for several years therefore keeping you “stuck” there indefinitely. Home should be a sanctuary, not a prison…don’t take the bait and bust outside of your means. The fact that you’ve accumulated 20% down despite moderate salary means you’re a hard worker and responsible human…keep that train rolling and find something (even if it’s a condo/townhouse) that will allow you to maintain peace of mind going forward. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  11. I know this is a very difficult projection, but are we sure the market will sustain those same prices/demand for “entry level” homes in the presence of 5% rates? I think there’s a certain segment of the Austin area market that is “rate-proof” due to investors/out-of-state cash buyers (e.g. Central/West); but if you’re looking at new construction under $400k I would guess you’re in a non-premium area like Manor or somewhere way South/East. As such, I highly doubt you’re gonna be the only cat with DTI concerns in the ~5% rate scenario, especially if accompanied by a recession that is creating job disruption for mid-tier earners (which I think is unavoidable if Fed is serious about taking inflation); therefore complicating their loan approvals/underwriting requirements. Also, if the recession and tight lending scenario holds true, are there really that many people at your price point that will be able to swing a no-shit 20% down payment? In other words, I’m not sure you’re worse off taking a ~1-1.5% rate hike if it is paired with $40-$50k in purchase price reduction and/or softer competition for other properties…espec if an ace like Wulaw can get you refi’d down in a couple years once the smoke clears. I am more bearish than the average bear, but I also know first-hand how broke 95% of “real world” American consumers are once you remove their ability to borrow without limitation. I know the hard data supports a severe shortage of housing supply, and demographic inflow into CenTex is not stopping anytime soon….but if people simply can’t afford it anymore I don’t see how this level of appreciation is going to continue. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  12. I guess it became trendy to hate on it for a while (maybe still is?), but it’s a really great place to grab a picnic table + BYOB in Spring/Fall…espec on a weekday when it’s not very busy. We often used to “tailgate” there before night games in the mid-late aughts and always had a blast. Obviously not much of a “getaway” vibe anymore with all the newly-built sprawl, but still worth a visit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  13. Understood, but rhetorical point is what is the Fed waiting for? Shouldn’t immediate rate hikes/cessation of QE/end of asset purchases been enacted the moment it became crystal clear the inflation was not at all transitory and in fact a borderline crisis? And as for “less accommodative” Fed policy as an elixir, how does a 1-2 point rate nudge upward offset an inflation issue that is (generously) running at 7.5%? Supply chains will likely improve this year, but enough to resolve an ongoing labor shortage (e.g. psychological shift of many people being “done” with certain jobs/industries), high gas prices, and a tidal wave of pent up demand for travel/leisure? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  14. My $GLD is up approx 1.5% YTD, which is beating all 3 major indices espec the Nasdaq…and well surpassing BTC (-8%) and Russell 2K (-9%). That said, I do believe another significant sell-off may be right around the corner as fickle investors buy into false narrative that Fed can (or will) get inflation under control with rate hikes…so a non-yield paying hedge is no longer necessary. Not sure if you follow mega bug Peter Schiff, but his thesis is marginal rate hikes and “less loose” Fed policy will prove wholly inadequate to stem inflation (bullish for gold)…and any attempt to heavily crank the monetary tightening will crash the markets and threaten severe recession, at which point the Fed will abort mission/resume QE leading to a seismic crash in the dollar (jackpot for gold). I don’t entirely share that outlook, but recently structured a very “defensive” portfolio alongside Gold that focuses mainly on established, profitable, dividend-payers with limited exposure to momentum stocks minus some hand-picking that I do in my Roth for cyclical travel/leisure/retail plays. In any event, I generally subscribe to your theory that gold is to be “owned” and not actively “traded”. If you believe our ‘borrow & spend’ economy is fundamentally a house of cards (I certainly do), then temporary price swings in gold are irrelevant when the eventual end game (hyperinflation via USD’s loss of status as global reserve currency) is inevitable…just don’t know if we’re 5 years or 300 years away from that catastrophe. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  15. ^^^Great info, thanks for posting. I knew “owner equivalent rent” was a dogshit metric, but had no idea it was that willfully inaccurate. The housing/rental market has probably benefited from digitization as much as any major consumer industry over the past ~5 years; you could enlist a summer intern from Zillow to pull YoY rental comps (not to mention the ‘for sale’ list prices from MLS) within the top 50 MSAs and do 1000x better than the CPI. Everything is a scam. It’s very exhausting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  16. Also fucking lol at the alleged 4.1% YoY increase in Shelter Costs. The CPI is so embarrassing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  17. I always get a good laugh when Invesco’s “Low Volatility” ETF ($SPLV) drops more than the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq in a single trading day. Was down a full 2% last I checked. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  18. Has anyone explained yet why runaway inflation is best addressed “in the relatively near future” using the iron-fist of “less accommodative” monetary policy? Bonus: I would also appreciate context for how an “extremely robust” economy can also simultaneously possess record high trade deficits and a nearly incalculable national debt? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  19. How old are you (presuming mid-30s)? Spouse/significant other? Kids? Elderly relatives/family care obligations? Debt situation? Ability to relocate? Savings/family money you can leverage for new degree/professional certification? Also, do you want to make max money or do you prioritize intangibles like flexibility, lower stress, unique company benefits, etc? I’m almost 37 and been through 3x significant career changes since undergrad (Fortune 500—>Military—>MPA—>Consulting); and the questions above were often just as pertinent (if not more important) than my career interests/resume/relevant skills at each stage. There’s a trillion well-paying jobs being given to lazy morons on a daily basis right now; so don’t sell yourself short and take something “good enough” just because it’s less shitty than teaching. Also, make sure you take inventory of how much the absence of structure (e.g. bell schedule) and loss of guaranteed breaks like winter holidays and summer may affect your quality of life. Most “good careers” in corporate world have terrible cultures with respect to PTO (can elaborate more if you want); and work from home can also be a fucking nightmare depending on your personality….some jobs also require a lot of self-teaching/initiative with minimal guidance which is great if you like to color outside the lines but not easy for people accustomed to rigidity of a things lesson plan or field manual. Best advice thus far is do as many “take your friend to work” days as you can within your network and see what resonates. Also, don’t be afraid to work at Costco if it “works for you” and/or allows you to constructively hustle your way toward a longer term vision. You’ll probably like your peer group way more than any job you’ve held before and may find unique sense of purpose/accomplishment by “working for a living” instead of staring at dual monitors or listening to bullshit on a zoom as in a “prestigious role” somewhere. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  20. I don’t understand your math in relation to what you’re “eating”. I also don’t understand the point of buying season tickets at those cost levels if you aren’t dead set on going to the Bama game. You can get better seats at better prices on the secondary market for nearly all other matchups when compared to the “per game” cost at your minimum donation levels….especially if we get a another shitpile of 11am kickoffs. I know recent ST buyers think they’re “saving money in the long-run” by staying locked into donation levels prior to the SEC move, but I don’t think the ticket market is going to change that dramatically in the future…plus CDC is just gonna keep raising the face value anytime he thinks there’s any remotely increased demand. If you go back ~15 years, there’s only been a handful of truly “mega expensive” home games that I can recall: tOSU ‘06, ND ‘16, USC ‘18, LSU ‘19. It will be a big-ish deal the first time certain marquee programs visit, but apart from the first Aggy rematch, what other opponent is going to break the bank now that Bama’s already coming and LSU (with CFP aspirations) was just here? If anything I think the Michigan game in 2024 will be bigger than almost all of them, except maybe UGA if they go on a huge run and Sark gets the program into CFP contention (ha?). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  21. Also bonus rant re: Snapchat Congrats on taking almost a decade to become profitable at nearly the exact moment that TikTok has rendered your entire application played out/obsolete. Snaps daily users evidently beat estimates, but how much of that growth occurred in the last 18 months (as opposed to carry over from when it was still relevant 3 yrs ago), compared to TikTok who literally has a billion people wiggle-dicking on their phones everyday? Same thing with the comparative rates of per person engagement, volume of content uploads etc. Snap is on life support with the biggest demos/countries that matter yet somehow it gets to print X billion $$$ tomorrow because the masterminded computers say so? I promise I’ll hang up and listen for a few days, but this is some serious bullshit and I don’t even have any financial stake/position here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  22. Excellent post, thanks for the context. My follow-on questions echo same original rhetoric: who does this possibly benefit besides a small group of highly sophisticated I-banks/hedge funds? If the algos can react/front-run good news and off-load bad news before we can even read one sentence of an earnings release (much less digest the data), how do we stand a chance of consistently ending up on the right side of these volcanic price swings; even if we’ve done all our homework? Furthermore, if vast majority of us outside Surly 1% have the bulk of our portfolios trapped inside “employer approved” 401ks…then can’t these same scumbags already “see our cards” before we even start “wagering”….since we are often hamstrung by a handful of mutual funds and ETFs (many of which have significant exposure to blue chips like $FB)? I think the typical justification has been “quit your bitching muppet, you made 25% return on your index funds last year, didn’t ya?”…but it’s become a losing proposition when I’m (best case) earning tens of thousands and big fish/institutions (who are now directly competing with me for scarce assets like real estate) are making multi-millions by leveraging a rigged system/stacked deck. I’ll leave it there before it gets Cloaky, but would be interested to hear some other perspectives. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  23. Question for those of yall who have been in the game long enough to remember .com bubble (and maybe ‘07-09 too)…has there ever been volatility like this based on basic shit like earnings reports? Seeing $SNAP now soaring ~55% AH, after taking a 23% dump today as extension of the Facebook sell-off…what the fuck. Snap says they “reported a profit” (woo), so that’s worth immediate explosion of the entire market cap? These seismic market moves are nearly all algorithm driven, correct? If so, how is that a good thing for anyone other than the scumbags behind the machines? Isn’t this eventually going to trigger the wrong type of domino effect and push everything to the edge of circuit breakers one day? Kind of rhetorical, but can’t they just create a whole separate exchange for these slot machine stocks and have a boring “boomer” market (that requires hand-driven trading) for people who are at least trying to give a damn about fundamentals? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  24. It appears the $10k is likely ashtray money for you (therefore no big deal), but I think your move on $FB today is where dollar cost averaging is really beneficial. If I was in your shoes I prob would’ve just committed $3k or so today and then sprinkled the remainder in weekly/bi-weekly increments in case this thing still craters further. I guess it depends on your personality, but I always feel way worse about buying too early (and having to climb all the way back just to get even) than buying a couple days too late and missing an easy run-up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  25. Anecdotal of course, but I think Ford is front-loading deliveries on Broncos to accommodate these bullshit dealer markups. Why should any dealer on earth (e.g. Covert Hutto) have 3-4 unclaimed Sports on their lot at $8-$10k over MSRP when manufacturer still has thousands of individual buyers waiting 9+ months for arrivals? If the intent is just to fuck people then why even take the solo orders in the first place? So they can tell a cool story to Wall Street about consumer demand? In any event, it’s terrible business by Ford on all fronts…if dealers want to play those games then the manufacturer should be the one collecting those huge upcharges before even shipping to them…if dealer then want to pass that cost premium on to local buyers then fine, but they should not be allowed to buy at sticker price if they are all going to pull this shit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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