1. Coleman was not our best player last year
2. Sims didn't kick ass. He contributed off the bench in a limited role.
3. Your'e still relying on those guys progressing a ton.
4. You can't say "we made the dance" without Bamba (or even really Jones). We made the dance over a whole season's worth of work, to which Bamba contributed massively. Our defense was not the same without him.
5. Our recruiting class isn't up there with the top 10 programs. It's 14th in avg recruit score ( a much better metric than total score due to fluctuation in bball class sizes). There's a big gap between our score and the top 8-10 classes. Plus, we're one of only 2 teams in the top 14 without a 5 star, you know the kind of guy who comes in right away and has a big impact since we're talking about how they'll help next year's squad. All our recruits are long-term guys. Maybe one of them surprises and has a big impact, but expecting them to be big contributors in year one is unrealistic.
6. My entire hypo above was if Roach came back, so when I used your term, "lock," it was assuming Roach is back just like you said. Seems like you were unable to grasp this point.
7. All this goes to show that calling next year's team a "lock" for the dance, even with Roach, is ridiculous. They might make it, but it will require good injury luck (we have way less depth than 2017) and a lot of progression by the returning players. Our team last year was much, much more talented and deeper than our team next year and they barely made the dance. To say, we're a lock to make it next year and you're not relying on any huge jumps from our returning players is absolutely insane.
I've sufficiently made my point and I know how these things go with you, so I'm gonna leave it at that.