THIS ^^^^ The central crux, and lynchpin of a Russians psyche. This thread has been a great read. My knowledge of Russia has come from college history courses, a few books, TV productions, and a general day to day news feed.
Their history is one of conquest, and invasion from east, west, and internally. They're neither western nor eastern hemisphere. They've always been something in between. It's always fueled their distrust of everyone. Coupled with the fact there's never really been a true middle class. The serf - master relationship has never really been overcome. Tsars have ruled with an iron fist with only glimpses of progressive movement (and you really have to go back to Catherine for any of that progressive thought).
I'd say your comments on the souring of emotions towards the west during the post Cold War NATO expansion would be spot on for the average Russian, but is just another chapter in the us against everybody mindset they've always seemed to have. I'd say we maybe missed a chance to help foster a more democratic path for the Russians.
I'd also say the rocket surgeons (love that description BTW) probably knew a lot more than we or the average Russian did about who was moving to take power in the post Soviet world, and who that cast of players would be. How would anyone not think ex KGB would be the ones who moved to that end ? They had the training, apparatus, and all the other tricks needed to drive Russia right back to it's current mafioso state. Of course I could be way off, but I don't think it's a great leap of faith to think that was going to happen.
Russians have had zero experience with democracy, voting or self governance ever in the entire history of their country. That they were going to succeed in that 180 degree transformation would have been a bit of a miracle.