How anyone can come to the conclusion we provoked Putin to invade Ukraine is a monumental mind fuck of stupidity. Putin is exactly what every leader in Russia has been with the exception of Boris Yeltsin: despotic, autocratic, militaristic, repressive, mafioso type rulers.
Gorbachev was a reluctant peace maker. He was at least intelligent enough to see the writing on the wall. Reagan does deserve a great deal of credit as one of several factors for the USSR's ultimate downfall. Star Wars for all its impossibilities was a straw that broke the camels back because the Russian military knew it couldn't financially compete with that technology, and continue to design, and build its others military resources. That's direct comment from several of the old guard, Russian military leaders in interviews several year back on some cable documentary. So take it for whatever value you want.
My opinion of Russia is it's always been a paper tiger. Their nuclear capability has been the only thing getting them a seat at the table of super power status. Their main line military capabilities, technologies, and tactics have always lagged behind ours, even with some of the more nasty shit they've developed the last 20 years. When you rely on unschooled, conscripts as a major component of your standing army you're gonna have trouble projecting military might thru intelligent, and motivated means.
NATO did exactly what it should have done with invites to the former eastern block states. Does Putin invade Ukraine if they're a NATO member ? Doubtful, highly, highly, doubtful. That does help explain their constant meddling in the region, keeping Ukraine in a continual state of agitation, and semi conflict keeps that invite in the back pocket of NATO.
The only threat NATO (a defensive, military alliance) poses to Russia is being a bulkhead against Russias/Putins empire building fantasies, that bring the glory of the old Soviet empire back to reality. I bet Putin sees hi self as the lost czar, a particularly long lived, Russian fantasy of a ruler who saves the empire, and the people.
NATO is not invading Russia, nor any other sovereign state without some pretty exceptional reasons (SEE Iraqs invasion of Kuwait). The way we released intel staying one or more steps ahead of Putins moves into Ukraine was pretty damned smart. It gave Putin nowhere to go with his lies, and alibis for invasion.
CONCLUSION: Fuck Putin.