I think the "6-6 is our ceiling" crowd is forgetting what our schedule looks like and the state of the big 12.
ULM - Has won 9 games in the past three seasons
Alabama - Is Alabama.
UTSA - Are coming off their most successful* season, but lost loads of talent.
@ Texas Tech - Breaking in a brand new coaching staff and first time college head coach.
West Virginia - They picked up JT Daniels, but lost a ton of depth on defense.
Oklahoma - Breaking in a new coaching staff and Quarterback. I legitimately have no idea what to expect from them this year.
Iowa State - Lost Hall, Purdy, and Kolar
@ Oklahoma State - They are mostly the same team. Will likely compete for the Big 12 title.
@ Kansas State - They have Deuce Vaughn, but they're breaking in Adrian Martinez as their QB.
TCU - New Coaching staff. Lost their most valuable offensive weapon in Zach Evans.
@ Kansas - Is Kansas
Baylor - Defending Big 12 champs, but lost significant talent on their defense.
Texas is young. It has inexperience. But so does most of the Big 12 this season. Texas only has 4 true away games this season and two of those are at the Kansas schools.
Even with all the inexperience, it's reasonable to assume that Texas will be favored against: ULM, UTSA, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, and Kansas. Of that group of games, Tech and Kansas State are probably the biggest toss ups because Lubbock is a difficult place to play in, and Kansas State reasonably has the talent to beat us.
We're probably going to lose a game or two we shouldn't lose (see Tech, KSU, TCU, or Iowa State). But we're also probably going to win a game or two we shouldn't win as well (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Baylor.)
There is a path for 8 wins on this schedule. Even with the youth of this team. Even with the reports of one rough scrimmage and one "grandma's cookies without the secret ingredients" public practice.
This team could absolutely falter to 6-6. They might even miss a bowl game. That's all very true and on the table as of right now.
But to act like 6-6 is the ceiling is being ignorant of the schedule and the state of the conference.