This was a really good listen. I may have linked to a piece by this Zoltan guy in the CR like a dummy, but here they discuss more in depth the impact of sanctions. Basically with the idea of risk free central bank FX reserves irreparably tarnished, we will have decreased demand for treasuries over time. This as our necessary debt issuance continues to grow. The only solution at scale will be more QE and debt monetization by the Fed. Inflationary for us obviously.
Also he predicts some shift to governments stockpiling commodities with their surpluses rather than buying foreign govt bonds. Part of a shift from just in time supply chains to just in case accumulation. China has a head start on that. For instance they hold 50% of global wheat stockpiles while we hold 6%.
Also discusses why central banks are poorly equipped to deal with any slowdown that results from this. You can’t print oil or iron ore etc. A lot to consider.