it is interesting to go back in time to February 2022 and see what all the extremely well informed and intelligent posters, including myself, said about Ukraine’s chances at the moment of invasion and a day or two after. THAT Russia, the second army in the world, is gone. The Russia that invaded Ukraine is gone. Huge numbers of the most productive, educated and talented Russians left the country. They essentially don’t have a navy anymore. They are out of modern tanks. Even an RPG will take out the T 64s. They are running out of pilots to fly the helicopters and attack jets they still have, and they are all out of armored personnel carriers.
It is beyond question that if February 2022, Russia had invaded properly without advancing in long unsupplied columns accompanied by Benny Hill theme song music, we would’ve had a different result. Europe would have a difficult time defending itself from a Russia who attacked confidently with the assets they had in February 2022. Now that those assets are gone, the elite units all dirt napping and making sunflowers - and their ranks replaced by 60-year-old asthmatic drunks - I feel that Europe on its own can surely take care of what Russia has become.
The real question is the same one that has always been sitting around pregnant: at what point will they consider using tactical nuclear weapons. Because if they stick with traditional military equipment, just Poland or Finland alone would wreck their shit if they joined Ukraine in its defense.