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Gatorubet

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Gatorubet

  1. I’m doing a sober November. My God, I think you’ve diagnosed the problem Brisket
  2. To be more precise, I am no longer worried that it is impossible for enough registered voters to pick Democratic candidates. You are exactly correct that it is not certain, and that is still a worry. I am just changing the needle from it is over and there is nothing we can do, to a slight glimmer of hope that we can overcome this. I need that for my mental health right now.
  3. Number one, it’s not half. Number two, Trump won by a plurality, not a majority. It is a long way till 2026 and 2028. So I will not say that younger voter increased participation, and Hispanic voting walking back from Trump, like the recent Tuesday election showed, will meet a damn thing then. I think it is fair if we agree we can’t count on Democratic voting blocks to remain consistent throughout the upcoming months, it is equally unrealistic to assume that the Trump 2024 voters will stay in the exact same monolith voting pattern. We just need a few percent unsatisfied Trump voters staying home, coupled with a percent or two Hispanics coming back to blue, and a percent or two younger voters showing up at the polls to kick his ass. The issue won’t be changing pole numbers. A bad economy always fucks the incumbent. The issue will be GOP attempts to limit early voting and mail in voting, and election day Fuckery registered voters right before the election, limit pulls in democratic areas, and bring false bullshit MAGA election fraud charges that his sink vents will go all in on. I am no longer worried about enough people voting for the Democrats, I’m worried about whether Democrats, who want to vote for Democrats will be allowed to vote for Democrats.
  4. My take is more positive than briskets. I totally agree with brisket there are a significant amount of Trump people who will not give a shit and will not believe it. The only thing I disagree with concerns the number of people who fall into the “not paying attention”category. Included in that number is the “not paying attention because Fox News does not report it.” I think we have to at least consider that for many Trump voters, things we have known about from 2016 until now are things that are suddenly on their radar for the first time. The fact that we don’t find that possible or reasonable does not mean it is not true. I have one MAGA relative who is a true believer, and he has been stunned on several occasions learning about things of which he had no idea. That did not turn him from MAGA, but it has turned him from MAGA positions on a few matters after he learned the truth. He was never political before Trump. One of Trump’s strengths was gathering the never participated in politics before group. If Trump loses on tariffs and the economy continues to take a crap and many lose healthcare and snap benefits, I think some of those people will return to their non-participation status if MAGA is not winning on things. it is fun to own the libs, it is not fun to see the orange cult God not winning. An absence of lib tears is enough for some of them to back out. 10% of MAGA checking out is all we potentially need to take Congress back. Tl;dr Absent election day fuckery, the GOP is wounded enough to lose big in 2026. Election day Fuckery could well be enough to make it not matter.
  5. No. these emails have never been released, and Trump has denied spending time with the victims or knowing anything about the victims or that Epstein trafficked young women. What I find hilarious is that the White House announced that the Democrats were cherry picking information from the Epstein files, while denying that the Epstein files contain anything bad about Trump and denying that there was anything left in the Epstein files that anyone I’ve ever seen before. While the White House says the late victim denied knowing Trump, I guarantee you Trump has denied ever knowing her on camera multiple times. They need to show that clip next to the email from 2011 where Epstein says that Trump spent hours with her. then show the clip where Trump talks about his friend Epstein and says he “likes beautiful women almost as much as he does”, adding that “they are on the younger side.”
  6. We are not talking much how Kaliningrad is in a bad place, having been cut off from Russia’s supplies, including fuel delivery. Russia must spend an extraordinary amount of money and effort trying to keep it supplied. When Lithuania closed the border and prevented the usual transit route of Chinese and Russian goods to flow to Europe, Leshchenko seized more than 1000 freight trucks stuck on the other side of the border in Belarus. That action has fucked Russia and China. It fucked Russia because it can’t collect duties on the trade coming through exporters, and it fucked China because China can’t get it stuff to Europe through that route. The expectation is that China will now send It’s goods through a southern freight route that goes through Turkey. Essentially, Russia will now be bypassed for a huge amount of trade that no longer has anything to do with Russia before it reaches Europe. That is a ton of money and jobs for Russia, and makes much of being a non-economic superpower, backwater more of a reality. Estimates are that Russia has lost at least 40% of its refining capability. I believe it’s likely slightly more than that, because damage to so many refineries on such a regular basis has to have completely consumed much of its spare parts, and while Russia still retained some some expertise in repairing them, one would think those specialist have to go from refractory to refinery rather than have competent people in each and everyone.
  7. watching the various Ukraine news centered YouTube channels last night I did watch one that claimed that Gerasimov was told by Putin he had until mid November to make significant gains or he was out. This apparently is an explanation for the latest push where they are throwing more meat than ever before at the problem without regard to logistics or trip deaths - even by Russian standards. I guess if I reflect on it, the delivery capabilities of Russia to supply food, water, fuel, ammunition, etc. to its troops is far more degraded than it ever was. As soon as the subzero temperature comes and stays, I think Ukraine will be able to keep far more of its soldiers fed and alive in those conditions than Russia. I hope excellent thermal optics have been flooded into Ukraine, and if it hasn’t, it should, as I think a winter offensive in the current situation would be difficult for Russia to defend. I guess the question remains the same: will Russia collapse before its slow, costly, incremental gains in Ukraine become problematic for Ukraine?
  8. Peeps… this is a quick five minute cruise of what the Russian newspapers are saying about the military and financial going on in Russia. I was actually surprised at the level of negative reporting on some of it. I had not seen this person‘s channel before, but I’m going to add it to my daily viewing because it saves a bunch of time (love Inside Russia, but Konstantin is ponderous) and covers more topics than Julia Davis and her excellent Russian Media Monitor.
  9. What is this…dignity…of which you speak? I am unfamiliar with this.
  10. When they reach the station, she demanded to be taking to the “comfortable part of the jail” …because she was “not a criminal”. Possible Speaker of the House.?
  11. You had me until “decisive”. Disillusionment at the economy and affordability when coupled with crypt keeper Biden until, “Wait - the replacement is a colored woman” was decisive.
  12. Because of a political commentary, I’m not putting that in flight disrupting assholes. Her voice alone is enough to send people into a mental state requiring seppuku - but I was oddly mesmerized by this Exhibit A of why our world has failed. This entitled Karen has checked all the boxes: 1) board’s plane after being refused boarding 2) tells officers she should not have to leave plane 3) advises officers that she “doesn’t care about the other passengers”, but her rights when told they will have to deplane the passengers to arrest her 4) demands that the officers collect her luggage 5) continually refuses to follow any orders and constantly interrupts officers 6) shrieks and cries in between intermittent temper tantrums 7) curses and MFs the police - while then saying that she voted for Trump and the police so they should not be happening to her 8 ) explains that she makes more in a day than they make in a week 9) despite missing that extremely complicated concept that you can’t be denied boarding for being drunk - and then force yourself into your first class seat - she advises that she is “highly educated” 10) when the cops finally arrived at the station, she pronounces that she does not “feel comfortable with the officers who took her there, taking her into the station” 11) cries and wails at the unfairness of her demands, not being instantly adhered to 12) and while it took a while, she finally places the blame on the black lady on the plane and announces she is a victim of racism. 13) obligatory demand for officer badge numbers because she’s going to sue the motherfuckers and the department for the horrible way they treated her I guess this is when MAGA meets Flight interrupting assholes. i’m not quite sure why this interests me so much, but I think of her case as a distillation of every single social and personality failing you could cram into one entitled white Karen bitch.
  13. I was about to post a Case McCoy pic until I had a rare and momentary firing of a common sense synapse.
  14. Honestly, I’ve never seen any data on this, but I unfortunately have this cynical idea that the chuckleheads who don’t pay attention are still not paying attention and have never paid attention. certainly a few more people followed the ACA standoff every time they mentioned it. Monthly premiums going up hundreds of dollars will make them pay attention, so I think it will be the bill in the mail instead of the media that will provide the information that matter matters.
  15. We should thank him. The optics that were blurred by the eight Democratic Senators folding just regained a bit of focus - the GOP is still taking away your healthcare. And the senile man baby says he’s gonna give everyone money and they can pay for their healthcare with that because we don’t need insurance companies. (Cletus, somewhere: “Dang, I’m purty healthy since I’ve been eaten the horse paste, so I’m gonna buy a bigger boat for the Trump parade!”)
  16. Ouch. in my karmic evolution from dung beetle to lawyer, I must’ve been decent in my last life, because a month before the last major hurricane state farm allowed me to obtain a 2% deductible instead of the usual 6% deductible if I switched to their auto insurance in addition to homeowners. That saved me 45K. Granted, I had to sue the bastards in federal court, and it took two years to get my money.
  17. this late September article contained one nugget that I stashed away. Putting aside the constant drone attacks, I know nothing about oil and gas production, and wonder if one of the resident oil barons could tell me how often scheduled maintenance occurs, and the consequences of not doing scheduled maintenance over time. Is it monthly maintenance, quarterly maintenance, yearly maintenance - or a combination of that depending on which component and how important it is? When will we start seeing booms just because they decided not to do maintenance?
  18. Has your insurance company started giving you the stink eye yet? Once upon a Time Louisiana would allow an insurer to cancel you if you made three claims in five years.
  19. I will wake up tomorrow in New Orleans and it will be 38°
  20. This bothers me reading it. Am I missing out on untold wealth by not forming a religion like L Ron Hubbard did? As head of the church, I should designate myself - “THE PRIME MEMBER”
  21. looks like you inadvertently used an extra S there, Mac
  22. Michiel Adriaenszoon de Ruyter disagrees.
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