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BamaATL

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Posts posted by BamaATL

  1. 4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    The increasing loudness of some Wall Street leaders saying that Trump will win tells me that they’re unsure that Harris is slightly leading.

    If they truly thought the race was over, they would just sit back and do whatever behind the scenes that would make them and their client the most money. Instead they’re trying to move the needle ever so much by telling everyone the race is over.

    Individual brokers on the Street consistently get teabagged by computerized index funds.  They know jack and shit, and jack just left town.  

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  2. Georgia overnight data dump highlights

    1.  3.058 million have cast votes

    2.  Women outpace men by 358k, 55.7%

    3.  2020 non voters make up 560k of the total or 18.6%

    4.  2020 day of voters make up 221k or 7.2%

     

    Of the 2020 non voters the 18-29 demo is 195k, whereas 50-64 is 109k and 65+ is 100k.  If there was concern about the elder non vote beating that young vote, that is rapidly fading.  

    Fortress Atlanta Voting Totals

    1.  Clayton County -61k or 28%

    2.  Cobb County - 215k or 36%

    3.  Dekalb County - 207k or 35%

    4.  Fulton County - 318k or 35%

    5.  Gwinnett County - 224k or 34%

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  3. 21 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

    “We’ve done it before,” Homan said, presumably referencing the less than successful slur-named militaristic “Operation Wetback” from the Eisenhower administration that Trump has repeatedly invoked as a model. But historians agree that campaign not only led to far fewer deportations than the federal government claimed, but also ensnared US citizens.

    A mass deportation of the scale Trump and Homan have been touting would likely have the same result. And as immigration experts have noted, such a plan would negatively impact mixed-status households, potentially tearing families apart. To that, Homan offered an alternative. “Is there a way to carry out mass deportation without separating families?” Vega asked. “Of course there is,” Homan said. “Families can be deported together.”

    He was on 60 minutes. This asshole wants to drive to work sites and round up people.

    If you think contractors like myself are shitty at keeping schedules, just wait!  I'll have your store built in just 4 short years now!

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  4. 5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

    Yeah, the youth always show up early and never wait until the last minute 🙄 

    In fairness, when I was 18 I took at Statics course at 8 am on M/W/F that the professor would lock the door on at 8.  I learned a couple things, 8 am isn't for me, especially on a Friday.  The other being that you can't learn complex math with bloodshot eyes.  

    Fortunately, this is a small county, and the day of lines shouldn't scare anyone away.  

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  5. Clarke County GA update per @Js1 request, as of yesterday

    22k have voted early - a 25% total compared to 2020, lagging considerably behind most of the state

    17k have EV voted that did in 2020, which represents 76.5% of those that did in 2020, not a statistical outlier, in line with general average

    4.1k have voted that were non voters in 2020, of that group 3.6k are in the 18-29 demographic

    1k of day of voters have also voted

     

    A couple of quick conclusions:

    1.  Smaller Counties, like Clarke, with only 86k of voters in 2020 tend to have more day of voting because no one expects the line to be a serious problem.  Given the returns and percentage of 2020 voters and that ev'd this seems to be holding.

    2.  Students have begun to vote at an accelerated vote, from 1k this time last week to 4k.  Good, but considering that there are 50k of students, I'd sure like to it see closer to 10k by the end of the week.  As far as I'm concerned, this is a bit disappointing. 

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  6. 11 minutes ago, immamac said:

    This is the only thing that matters and it's obvious what's happening. Using data that doesn't account for 10% of the people voting as being unregistered last time and that skewing WAY young. This is just Texas where the people who aren't registered or didn't vote are overwhelmingly democratic. 

    I'm saying using 2020 data with what is in front of your eyes and saying reasonable people are energized by hate and racism to turn out like they haven't before 2020 is insane. 

    Screenshot_20241028_085233_Chrome.jpg

    This is the story, and no one is seemingly tracking it at, not pollsters, not media, etc.  Here in Georgia, it's not 10% either, it's 17.6%.  Nothing is universal, but they aren't Trump voters by and large.  

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  7. 50 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    The issue is not whether more women are voting than men; they are. The issue is are women a larger proportion of the EV electorate than they were in 2020; they are not. In Georgia, the major demographic slices all are skewing more R than the 2020 electorate. 
     

    The 2024 vote so far is significantly whiter, older and more rural than 10 days out from the 2020 election. That is true across many states. In Texas, the black vote share is stable but Hispanic share is down and white share is up. In Georgia, white share is up and black share is down almost 3 points. 

    Rural share is up and urban down pretty much everywhere. It’s a 9-10 point shift in Texas and 5-6 in GA. 65+ voters are a larger share in Texas this year by 6.6 points. 50-64 is flat to slightly down. Every age group under 50 is a smaller share this year. That dynamic is also playing out widely. In the Georgia example, it’s a 5.4 point shift towards the olds. 

    While gender shifted 1-2 points from female to male in 4 years, it’s probably less significant than the other demographic shifts in the EV electorate. If I told you the 2024 votes would be much older and more rural, significantly whiter and slightly more male than 2020, would you think those groups are turning out to vote enthusiastically for Kamala and the Democrats?  Not sure I buy that. 

    I've been tracking GA turnout pretty much daily, I see out of 159 only 2 counties with statistical anomalies

    1.  Pickens County - rural turnout exceeds 2020 - 117% Here's the catch, there are 29k of voters, and it's a growth county just outside Metro Atlanta.

    2.  Clarke County - Athens GA only 49.5% turnout compared to 2020  - low by the mean set everywhere well else in the state

    There is no real statistical difference anywhere else between rural and urban, everything else falls within pretty much the same margin of 60 to 80%.  This also ignores that larger areas are going to be a bit delayed because of lines at the polls (I.e. turnout will stagger).  

    You can see these numbers here updated from yesterday: georgiavotes.com 

     

     

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  8. 3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

    Good post and I agree on all BUT I really don’t like all the older new voters.

    Understandable thought.  and I don't get demographic numbers on voters from each particular county, so I don't definitely know where the older voters are coming from.  There are a couple of things I'd point to in regard to this:

    1.  The data I have access to only tracks 2020 and 2024, so these older voters might have participated in the past, just not in 2020.  

    2.  We know some level of non participation in 2020 and even more so 2016 was due to dissatisfaction with the candidates.  

    3.  Based on that, I wouldn't immediately rule against the older non voters being enthused by one candidate, hence the turnout.  It stands to reason that they are enthused by Harris, not Trump (they've had 2 previous options to vote for him and didn't in at least one of them with the data we have).  That makes more sense to me than saying that suddenly they are enthused to vote for Trump out of nowhere.  

    Quite obviously, without definitely data, it's all a bit of guess work and the truth is, this vote will split, it's just a question by how much.  

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